A regra de Taylor e a recente política monetária brasileira

• Autor(a) principal: Freire, Leonardo Porto
• Data de Publicação: 2004
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/5171
• topic: Política Monetária

The present study was trying to analyze if the practice of the recent brazilian monetary policy could be explained by the Taylor’s Rule, that recommends a target for the basic interest rate of the economy based on four factors: the current inflation rate; the equilibrium real interest rate; an inflation gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the inflation rate and one given target for inflation; and an output gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the real output and the potential real output. The studied period was from 1995/07 to 2003/12, and the three following analyses were established: a) on Level I – on this analysis were verified the relation between the series of the effective levels of the Selic Interesting rate, and series of this rate purposed by Taylor-type rules quite close to the original proposal;b) Dynamics – on this second analysis were estimated equations based on a Dynamic Model of the Taylor’s Rule, and verified the power of explanation, of those to the effective variations on the Selic rate; and c) on Level II – on this last analysis were estimated equations based on Taylor’s structure, and were verified the explanation power, of those to the effective level of the Selic rate. The results of the referred analyses point to an Idea that Taylor’s Rule, in spite of treating of a simple rule of monetary politics, would have in its scope important elements to explain the Brazilian Monetary Policy on the analyzed period.