Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Samuellson Lopes Cabral
Data de Publicação: 2014
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
Texto Completo: http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=12795
Resumo: This work seeks to integrate climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir operation models in order to optimize available water volume in the Brazilian Northeast. The global ECHAM 4.5 climate model was used to feed the RAMS regional climate model for the Alto Jaguaribe hydrographic basin. Resulting precipitation values were calibrated by the probability density function (PDF) correction of simulated data compared with average daily precipitation data using the Thiessen method for the period 1979-2009. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) was used to evaluate model performance in the Maximum Predictable Time Interval (ITEMP) of the atmospheric model. These PDF-corrected precipitation data, both observed and RAMS-simulated, were inserted in the hydrologic Soil Moisture Account (SMA) model from the Hydrologic Engineering Center â Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to determine modeled flows. These flows were then compared with median observed flows. To calibrate and validate the SMA, an iterative method was used to minimize percentage error of volume. The data returned by this cascade model was applied to assisting policy-makers determine water releases from the OrÃs reservoir. Three different scenarios were compared, the first based on observed flows, the second flows simulated by SMA with observed precipitation, and the third by flows simulated by SMA driven by the RAMS-PDF precipitation data. The RAMS model showed optimal efficiency in precipitation prediction on a 30 to 45 day interval, with HSS values of 0.56. The SMA model showed satisfactory performance with Nash-Sutcliffe values of 0.89 in the calibration phase and 0.67 in the validation phase, demonstrating its capacity to assist hydrological modeling in the semi-arid. This cascade model showed potential in accurately representing median inflows for the reservoir and as such can be used as a hydrologic tool, assisting reservoir operation decisions to meet the regionâs demand. Keywords: Soil Moisture Account; hydrologic
id UFC_06a59db43006b9099e610997215e5512
oai_identifier_str oai:www.teses.ufc.br:8684
network_acronym_str UFC
network_name_str Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
spelling info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisTime interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir managementIntervalo de tempo de mÃxima previsibilidade no acoplamento de modelos climÃticos e hidrolÃgico para gerenciamento de reservatÃrio2014-10-06Josà Nilson Beserra Campos00096768304http://lattes.cnpq.br/0852243918381426Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart21418080306Josà Maria Brabo Alves15422941268http://lattes.cnpq.br/6089287551555329Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho23199610382http://lattes.cnpq.br/4988966386848759Rosiberto Salustiano da Silva Junior03253415406http://lattes.cnpq.br/179823220120517404446633473http://lattes.cnpq.br/0086158908740730Samuellson Lopes CabralUniversidade Federal do CearÃPrograma de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Engenharia CivilUFCBR Modelagem hidrolÃgica ReservatÃrios SemiÃridoSoil Moisture Account hydrologic modeling reservoir operation semi-aridENGENHARIA CIVILThis work seeks to integrate climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir operation models in order to optimize available water volume in the Brazilian Northeast. The global ECHAM 4.5 climate model was used to feed the RAMS regional climate model for the Alto Jaguaribe hydrographic basin. Resulting precipitation values were calibrated by the probability density function (PDF) correction of simulated data compared with average daily precipitation data using the Thiessen method for the period 1979-2009. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) was used to evaluate model performance in the Maximum Predictable Time Interval (ITEMP) of the atmospheric model. These PDF-corrected precipitation data, both observed and RAMS-simulated, were inserted in the hydrologic Soil Moisture Account (SMA) model from the Hydrologic Engineering Center â Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to determine modeled flows. These flows were then compared with median observed flows. To calibrate and validate the SMA, an iterative method was used to minimize percentage error of volume. The data returned by this cascade model was applied to assisting policy-makers determine water releases from the OrÃs reservoir. Three different scenarios were compared, the first based on observed flows, the second flows simulated by SMA with observed precipitation, and the third by flows simulated by SMA driven by the RAMS-PDF precipitation data. The RAMS model showed optimal efficiency in precipitation prediction on a 30 to 45 day interval, with HSS values of 0.56. The SMA model showed satisfactory performance with Nash-Sutcliffe values of 0.89 in the calibration phase and 0.67 in the validation phase, demonstrating its capacity to assist hydrological modeling in the semi-arid. This cascade model showed potential in accurately representing median inflows for the reservoir and as such can be used as a hydrologic tool, assisting reservoir operation decisions to meet the regionâs demand. Keywords: Soil Moisture Account; hydrologicO presente trabalho visa o acoplamento de modelo atmosfÃrico, hidrolÃgico e de operaÃÃo de reservatÃrio com vistas à otimizaÃÃo da liberaÃÃo de Ãguas no semiÃrido do nordeste brasileiro. O modelo atmosfÃrico regional RAMS foi forÃado pelo modelo atmosfÃrico global ECHAM 4.5, na bacia hidrogrÃfica do Alto Jaguaribe, e em seguida, aplicada a correÃÃo probability density function (PDF) nos dados simulados e comparado com dados diÃrio de precipitaÃÃo mÃdia observada pelo mÃtodo de Thiessen no perÃodo de 1979-2009. Foi utilizando o Heidke Skill Score (HSS) como mÃtrica principal para avaliar o desempenho da previsÃo em busca do Intervalo de Tempo de MÃxima Previsibilidade (ITEMP) do modelo atmosfÃrico. Os dados de precipitaÃÃes observados e simulados pelo RAMS com correÃÃes PDFs foram inseridos no modelo hidrolÃgico Soil Moisture Account (SMA) do Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), e comparado com as vazÃes mÃdias observadas. Para a calibraÃÃo e validaÃÃo do SMA, foi realizado um mÃtodo interativo para minimizar uma funÃÃo objetivo, com base no erro percentual do volume. Por fim foi desenvolvido e avaliado um modelo de cascata a fim de comparar as decisÃes operacionais de liberaÃÃo do reservatÃrio OrÃs com diferentes cenÃrios com base nas vazÃes observadas, vazÃes simuladas pelo SMA com a precipitaÃÃo observada e vazÃes simuladas pelo SMA forÃada com o RAMS-PDF. O modelo RAMS mostrou melhor eficiÃncia na previsÃo da precipitaÃÃo no intervalo de 30 a 45 dias, com valores de HSS = 0,56. O modelo SMA mostrou desempenho satisfatÃrio com valores de Nash-Sutcliffe de 0,89 na fase de calibraÃÃo e 0,67 na fase de validaÃÃo, mostrando ser uma nova alternativa de utilizaÃÃo de modelo hidrolÃgico no semiÃrido. O modelo de cascata mostrou potencial em representar bem as afluÃncias mÃdias do reservatÃrio, podendo tornar uma ferramenta hidrolÃgica, auxiliando as decisÃes de operaÃÃo dos reservatÃrios, atendendo as demandas da regiÃo.CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superiorhttp://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=12795application/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessporreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFCinstname:Universidade Federal do Cearáinstacron:UFC2019-01-21T11:26:08Zmail@mail.com -
dc.title.en.fl_str_mv Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
dc.title.alternative.pt.fl_str_mv Intervalo de tempo de mÃxima previsibilidade no acoplamento de modelos climÃticos e hidrolÃgico para gerenciamento de reservatÃrio
title Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
spellingShingle Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
Samuellson Lopes Cabral
Modelagem hidrolÃgica
ReservatÃrios
SemiÃrido
Soil Moisture Account
hydrologic modeling
reservoir operation
semi-arid
ENGENHARIA CIVIL
title_short Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
title_full Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
title_fullStr Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
title_full_unstemmed Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
title_sort Time interval of maximum predictability in coupled climate and hydrological models for reservoir management
author Samuellson Lopes Cabral
author_facet Samuellson Lopes Cabral
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Josà Nilson Beserra Campos
dc.contributor.advisor1ID.fl_str_mv 00096768304
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/0852243918381426
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart
dc.contributor.referee1ID.fl_str_mv 21418080306
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Josà Maria Brabo Alves
dc.contributor.referee2ID.fl_str_mv 15422941268
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/6089287551555329
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
dc.contributor.referee3ID.fl_str_mv 23199610382
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/4988966386848759
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv Rosiberto Salustiano da Silva Junior
dc.contributor.referee4ID.fl_str_mv 03253415406
dc.contributor.referee4Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/1798232201205174
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv 04446633473
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/0086158908740730
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Samuellson Lopes Cabral
contributor_str_mv Josà Nilson Beserra Campos
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart
Josà Maria Brabo Alves
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Rosiberto Salustiano da Silva Junior
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Modelagem hidrolÃgica
ReservatÃrios
SemiÃrido
topic Modelagem hidrolÃgica
ReservatÃrios
SemiÃrido
Soil Moisture Account
hydrologic modeling
reservoir operation
semi-arid
ENGENHARIA CIVIL
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Soil Moisture Account
hydrologic modeling
reservoir operation
semi-arid
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv ENGENHARIA CIVIL
dc.description.sponsorship.fl_txt_mv CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior
dc.description.abstract.por.fl_txt_mv This work seeks to integrate climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir operation models in order to optimize available water volume in the Brazilian Northeast. The global ECHAM 4.5 climate model was used to feed the RAMS regional climate model for the Alto Jaguaribe hydrographic basin. Resulting precipitation values were calibrated by the probability density function (PDF) correction of simulated data compared with average daily precipitation data using the Thiessen method for the period 1979-2009. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) was used to evaluate model performance in the Maximum Predictable Time Interval (ITEMP) of the atmospheric model. These PDF-corrected precipitation data, both observed and RAMS-simulated, were inserted in the hydrologic Soil Moisture Account (SMA) model from the Hydrologic Engineering Center â Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to determine modeled flows. These flows were then compared with median observed flows. To calibrate and validate the SMA, an iterative method was used to minimize percentage error of volume. The data returned by this cascade model was applied to assisting policy-makers determine water releases from the OrÃs reservoir. Three different scenarios were compared, the first based on observed flows, the second flows simulated by SMA with observed precipitation, and the third by flows simulated by SMA driven by the RAMS-PDF precipitation data. The RAMS model showed optimal efficiency in precipitation prediction on a 30 to 45 day interval, with HSS values of 0.56. The SMA model showed satisfactory performance with Nash-Sutcliffe values of 0.89 in the calibration phase and 0.67 in the validation phase, demonstrating its capacity to assist hydrological modeling in the semi-arid. This cascade model showed potential in accurately representing median inflows for the reservoir and as such can be used as a hydrologic tool, assisting reservoir operation decisions to meet the regionâs demand. Keywords: Soil Moisture Account; hydrologic
O presente trabalho visa o acoplamento de modelo atmosfÃrico, hidrolÃgico e de operaÃÃo de reservatÃrio com vistas à otimizaÃÃo da liberaÃÃo de Ãguas no semiÃrido do nordeste brasileiro. O modelo atmosfÃrico regional RAMS foi forÃado pelo modelo atmosfÃrico global ECHAM 4.5, na bacia hidrogrÃfica do Alto Jaguaribe, e em seguida, aplicada a correÃÃo probability density function (PDF) nos dados simulados e comparado com dados diÃrio de precipitaÃÃo mÃdia observada pelo mÃtodo de Thiessen no perÃodo de 1979-2009. Foi utilizando o Heidke Skill Score (HSS) como mÃtrica principal para avaliar o desempenho da previsÃo em busca do Intervalo de Tempo de MÃxima Previsibilidade (ITEMP) do modelo atmosfÃrico. Os dados de precipitaÃÃes observados e simulados pelo RAMS com correÃÃes PDFs foram inseridos no modelo hidrolÃgico Soil Moisture Account (SMA) do Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), e comparado com as vazÃes mÃdias observadas. Para a calibraÃÃo e validaÃÃo do SMA, foi realizado um mÃtodo interativo para minimizar uma funÃÃo objetivo, com base no erro percentual do volume. Por fim foi desenvolvido e avaliado um modelo de cascata a fim de comparar as decisÃes operacionais de liberaÃÃo do reservatÃrio OrÃs com diferentes cenÃrios com base nas vazÃes observadas, vazÃes simuladas pelo SMA com a precipitaÃÃo observada e vazÃes simuladas pelo SMA forÃada com o RAMS-PDF. O modelo RAMS mostrou melhor eficiÃncia na previsÃo da precipitaÃÃo no intervalo de 30 a 45 dias, com valores de HSS = 0,56. O modelo SMA mostrou desempenho satisfatÃrio com valores de Nash-Sutcliffe de 0,89 na fase de calibraÃÃo e 0,67 na fase de validaÃÃo, mostrando ser uma nova alternativa de utilizaÃÃo de modelo hidrolÃgico no semiÃrido. O modelo de cascata mostrou potencial em representar bem as afluÃncias mÃdias do reservatÃrio, podendo tornar uma ferramenta hidrolÃgica, auxiliando as decisÃes de operaÃÃo dos reservatÃrios, atendendo as demandas da regiÃo.
description This work seeks to integrate climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir operation models in order to optimize available water volume in the Brazilian Northeast. The global ECHAM 4.5 climate model was used to feed the RAMS regional climate model for the Alto Jaguaribe hydrographic basin. Resulting precipitation values were calibrated by the probability density function (PDF) correction of simulated data compared with average daily precipitation data using the Thiessen method for the period 1979-2009. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) was used to evaluate model performance in the Maximum Predictable Time Interval (ITEMP) of the atmospheric model. These PDF-corrected precipitation data, both observed and RAMS-simulated, were inserted in the hydrologic Soil Moisture Account (SMA) model from the Hydrologic Engineering Center â Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to determine modeled flows. These flows were then compared with median observed flows. To calibrate and validate the SMA, an iterative method was used to minimize percentage error of volume. The data returned by this cascade model was applied to assisting policy-makers determine water releases from the OrÃs reservoir. Three different scenarios were compared, the first based on observed flows, the second flows simulated by SMA with observed precipitation, and the third by flows simulated by SMA driven by the RAMS-PDF precipitation data. The RAMS model showed optimal efficiency in precipitation prediction on a 30 to 45 day interval, with HSS values of 0.56. The SMA model showed satisfactory performance with Nash-Sutcliffe values of 0.89 in the calibration phase and 0.67 in the validation phase, demonstrating its capacity to assist hydrological modeling in the semi-arid. This cascade model showed potential in accurately representing median inflows for the reservoir and as such can be used as a hydrologic tool, assisting reservoir operation decisions to meet the regionâs demand. Keywords: Soil Moisture Account; hydrologic
publishDate 2014
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2014-10-06
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
status_str publishedVersion
format doctoralThesis
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=12795
url http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=12795
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do CearÃ
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv Programa de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Engenharia Civil
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFC
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv BR
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do CearÃ
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará
instacron:UFC
reponame_str Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
collection Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
instname_str Universidade Federal do Ceará
instacron_str UFC
institution UFC
repository.name.fl_str_mv -
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mail@mail.com
_version_ 1643295195393949696

Registros relacionados