Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por eng |
Título da fonte: | Sistemas & Gestão |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489 |
Resumo: | Although technological development promotes greater energy efficiency of equipment and devices, the demand for energy increases with population growth and the search for more comfort and well-being. Sustainable growth comes from low-cost renewable energy sources. The geographical position of Brazil shows a high potential for photovoltaic solar energy favoring distributed generation; however, the initial investments are considered limiting for greater participation in the Brazilian electricity matrix. The aim of this paper is to analyze the economic and financial viability of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation. The scientific methodology for this study considered a real scenario, applying investment analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, using probabilistic distributions for the main input parameters involved in the analysis. The result for the adopted case presented slight project viability, being characterized as the main scientific contribution of the work. Better results will be obtained as the costs of photovoltaic systems become more attractive through economies of scale, technological development and more incentive regulations. |
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Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generationAnálise de viabilidade econômico-financeira, pelo método de Monte Carlo, de um sistema fotovoltaico para geração distribuídaMonte CarloDecision MakingDistributed GenerationPhotovoltaicMonte CarloTomada de DecisãoGeração DistribuídaFotovoltaicaAlthough technological development promotes greater energy efficiency of equipment and devices, the demand for energy increases with population growth and the search for more comfort and well-being. Sustainable growth comes from low-cost renewable energy sources. The geographical position of Brazil shows a high potential for photovoltaic solar energy favoring distributed generation; however, the initial investments are considered limiting for greater participation in the Brazilian electricity matrix. The aim of this paper is to analyze the economic and financial viability of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation. The scientific methodology for this study considered a real scenario, applying investment analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, using probabilistic distributions for the main input parameters involved in the analysis. The result for the adopted case presented slight project viability, being characterized as the main scientific contribution of the work. Better results will be obtained as the costs of photovoltaic systems become more attractive through economies of scale, technological development and more incentive regulations.Apesar do desenvolvimento tecnológico promover maior eficiência energética dos equipamentos e dispositivos, a demanda por energia aumenta com o crescimento da população e pela busca por mais conforto e bem-estar do ser humano. O crescimento sustentável passa por fontes de energias renováveis e de baixo custo. A posição geográfica do Brasil evidencia um alto potencial para energia solar fotovoltaica favorecendo a geração distribuída, porém, os investimentos iniciais são considerados limitantes para que haja uma maior participação na matriz elétrica brasileira. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a viabilidade econômico-financeira de um sistema fotovoltaico para geração distribuída. A metodologia científica para este estudo considerou um cenário real, aplicando-se técnicas de análise de investimentos e simulação de Monte Carlo, usando distribuições probabilísticas para os principais parâmetros de entrada envolvidos na análise. O resultado para o caso adotado apresentou uma discreta viabilidade do projeto, caracterizando-se como a principal contribuição científica do trabalho. Melhores resultados serão obtidos na medida em que os custos dos sistemas fotovoltaicos se tornem mais atrativos através de economia de escala, desenvolvimento tecnológico e regulações de maior incentivo.ABEC2020-01-20info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionSimulaçãotext/htmltext/htmlapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/148910.20985/1980-5160.2019.v14n4.1489Sistemas & Gestão; v. 14 n. 4 (2019): DEZEMBRO 2019; 348-3551980-516010.20985/1980-5160.2019.v14n4reponame:Sistemas & Gestãoinstname:Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)instacron:UFFporenghttps://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/htmlhttps://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/html_1https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/pdfhttps://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/pdf_1Copyright (c) 2019 Sistemas & Gestãoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessde Andrade, Helder MaiaBrandalise, Nilson2020-05-29T17:14:46Zoai:ojs.www.revistasg.uff.br:article/1489Revistahttps://www.revistasg.uff.br/sgPUBhttps://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/oai||sg.revista@gmail.com|| periodicos@proppi.uff.br1980-51601980-5160opendoar:2020-05-29T17:14:46Sistemas & Gestão - Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation Análise de viabilidade econômico-financeira, pelo método de Monte Carlo, de um sistema fotovoltaico para geração distribuída |
title |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation |
spellingShingle |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation de Andrade, Helder Maia Monte Carlo Decision Making Distributed Generation Photovoltaic Monte Carlo Tomada de Decisão Geração Distribuída Fotovoltaica |
title_short |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation |
title_full |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation |
title_fullStr |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation |
title_sort |
Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation |
author |
de Andrade, Helder Maia |
author_facet |
de Andrade, Helder Maia Brandalise, Nilson |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Brandalise, Nilson |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
de Andrade, Helder Maia Brandalise, Nilson |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Monte Carlo Decision Making Distributed Generation Photovoltaic Monte Carlo Tomada de Decisão Geração Distribuída Fotovoltaica |
topic |
Monte Carlo Decision Making Distributed Generation Photovoltaic Monte Carlo Tomada de Decisão Geração Distribuída Fotovoltaica |
description |
Although technological development promotes greater energy efficiency of equipment and devices, the demand for energy increases with population growth and the search for more comfort and well-being. Sustainable growth comes from low-cost renewable energy sources. The geographical position of Brazil shows a high potential for photovoltaic solar energy favoring distributed generation; however, the initial investments are considered limiting for greater participation in the Brazilian electricity matrix. The aim of this paper is to analyze the economic and financial viability of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation. The scientific methodology for this study considered a real scenario, applying investment analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, using probabilistic distributions for the main input parameters involved in the analysis. The result for the adopted case presented slight project viability, being characterized as the main scientific contribution of the work. Better results will be obtained as the costs of photovoltaic systems become more attractive through economies of scale, technological development and more incentive regulations. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-01-20 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Simulação |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489 10.20985/1980-5160.2019.v14n4.1489 |
url |
https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.20985/1980-5160.2019.v14n4.1489 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por eng |
language |
por eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/html https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/html_1 https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/pdf https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1489/pdf_1 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Sistemas & Gestão info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Sistemas & Gestão |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html text/html application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ABEC |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ABEC |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Sistemas & Gestão; v. 14 n. 4 (2019): DEZEMBRO 2019; 348-355 1980-5160 10.20985/1980-5160.2019.v14n4 reponame:Sistemas & Gestão instname:Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) instacron:UFF |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) |
instacron_str |
UFF |
institution |
UFF |
reponame_str |
Sistemas & Gestão |
collection |
Sistemas & Gestão |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Sistemas & Gestão - Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||sg.revista@gmail.com|| periodicos@proppi.uff.br |
_version_ |
1798320144608395264 |