A importância da credibilidade na condução da política monetária para o equilíbrio fiscal

• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Rubens Teixeira da
• Data de Publicação: 2008
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal Fluminense (RIUFF)
• Texto Completo: https://app.uff.br/riuff/handle/1/17729
• topic: Credibilidade; Meta de inflação; Política monetária; Taxa de juros; Desagradável aritmética fiscal; Taxa de inflação; Dívida pública; Credibility; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; Interest rate; Unpleasant fiscal arithmetic; Inflation rate; Public debt; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA

Credibility is of vital importance so that an economic policy which aims at price stability through the adoption of an inflation targeting regime can be successful. This thesis presents the evolution of the credibility study and analyses the impact caused upon the fiscal balance through a theoretical model as well as empirical tests specifically carried out for the Brazilian case. When an economic policy focused on the stability of prices is implanted, there is not enough credibility and inflation expectations lie above the target. That makes for the increase of interest rates and ignites the pressure for the increase of the debt/GDP ratio. So, the use of primary surplus becomes a reasonable strategy to stabilize/reduce the debt/GDP ratio. This fiscal effort (which represents available resources for society) for extended periods of time generates harmful effects to the economy (drop of public investment) which culminates in an increase in the social cost. Empirical analyses based on the OLS, GMM and VAR methodologies have been carried out in order to assess the effect of credibility. The results show that the development of credibility is a powerful instrument to eliminate the harmful effects of a contractionist monetary policy concerning the public debt. Besides the attempts to avoid the explosion of public debt through the generation of primary surplus, there are other measures suggested by the literature aiming at improving its management. Since 1999 the Brazilian government has adopted some measures so as to improve the profile of the public debt indexation and to extend the maturity length. The empirical evidences obtained suggest that the credibility, the average maturity length of the public debt, the percentage of the debt indexed to the over-Selic tax and the percentage of the preset debt play an important role in the determination of the basic interest rates of the Brazilian economy. Summing up, the results obtained indicate that the credibility of the monetary authority is beneficial to the fiscal policy due to its impact on the public debt and primary surplus as well as to the monetary policy, favoring the reduction of interest rates.