Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFG |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/11050 |
Resumo: | For the appropriate conducting of fiscal policy is important understand how tax revenue responds to macroeconomic changes, quantifying its sensitivity. Incorrect forecasts about growth of tax revenue can lead to mistakes in the elaboration of the government budget of the following year, compromising fiscal balance. In addition to quantifying this sensitivity in the long run, it’s also of fundamental importance to know how tax revenue develops in face of short-term fluctuations in the level of economic activity, because the correct estimative of revenue, within the financial year, allows matching the expenditure execution to the pace of revenue collection, achieving the budget balance. In this context, this work aims to measure the sensitivity of VAT (Value-Added Tax) revenue in Goiás in face of changes in the level of economic activity. For this goal, short and long-term elasticities of VAT are estimated in response to changes in GDP, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), OLS with Error Correction Model and OLS with Error Correction allowing asymmetrical responses. These elasticities are also estimated for the largest sectors of economy in terms of VAT. Quarterly series are used in the period between 1st quarter of 2003 and 1st quarter of 2020. Among the main empirical verifications, it’s observed, as desirable, a tax revenue elastic to GDP in the long run, indicating that VAT in Goiás accompanies the growth of the Brazilian economy, with an elasticity of 1.32121. In the short term, VAT revenue is inelastic to GDP, showing some stability during cyclical crises, with growth of around 0.97% for every 1% of GDP growth. It’s also verified that the tax revenue in Goiás presents asymmetrical responses in the short term. When below the long-term equilibrium, the short-term elasticity is 0.753, more inelastic than in the model without asymmetry. On the other hand, when above of the long-term equilibrium, it presents an elastic tax revenue, equal to 1.209016. |
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Monsueto, Sandro Eduardohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5484881117429853Monsueto, Sandro EduardoTeixeira, Anderson MutterEly, Regis Augustohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6119546498920806Oliveira, Wederson Xavier de2021-01-22T12:03:59Z2021-01-22T12:03:59Z2020-12-18OLIVEIRA, W. X. Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade. 2020. 75 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2020.http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/11050For the appropriate conducting of fiscal policy is important understand how tax revenue responds to macroeconomic changes, quantifying its sensitivity. Incorrect forecasts about growth of tax revenue can lead to mistakes in the elaboration of the government budget of the following year, compromising fiscal balance. In addition to quantifying this sensitivity in the long run, it’s also of fundamental importance to know how tax revenue develops in face of short-term fluctuations in the level of economic activity, because the correct estimative of revenue, within the financial year, allows matching the expenditure execution to the pace of revenue collection, achieving the budget balance. In this context, this work aims to measure the sensitivity of VAT (Value-Added Tax) revenue in Goiás in face of changes in the level of economic activity. For this goal, short and long-term elasticities of VAT are estimated in response to changes in GDP, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), OLS with Error Correction Model and OLS with Error Correction allowing asymmetrical responses. These elasticities are also estimated for the largest sectors of economy in terms of VAT. Quarterly series are used in the period between 1st quarter of 2003 and 1st quarter of 2020. Among the main empirical verifications, it’s observed, as desirable, a tax revenue elastic to GDP in the long run, indicating that VAT in Goiás accompanies the growth of the Brazilian economy, with an elasticity of 1.32121. In the short term, VAT revenue is inelastic to GDP, showing some stability during cyclical crises, with growth of around 0.97% for every 1% of GDP growth. It’s also verified that the tax revenue in Goiás presents asymmetrical responses in the short term. When below the long-term equilibrium, the short-term elasticity is 0.753, more inelastic than in the model without asymmetry. On the other hand, when above of the long-term equilibrium, it presents an elastic tax revenue, equal to 1.209016.Para a adequada condução da política fiscal é de fundamental importância entender como a receita tributária responde a mudanças macroeconômicas, quantificando sua sensibilidade a essas alterações. Previsões incorretas sobre o crescimento da arrecadação podem levar a equívocos na elaboração do orçamento do exercício seguinte, comprometendo o equilíbrio fiscal do Ente, já que a despesa pública é pouco flexível. Além de quantificar essa sensibilidade no longo prazo, também é de fundamental importância conhecer como a arrecadação se comporta frente a flutuações de curto prazo no nível da atividade econômica. Isso porque a correta estimativa da receita dentro do exercício financeiro permite a compatibilização da execução da despesa ao ritmo de recolhimento da receita, possibilitando o equilíbrio orçamentário. Nesse contexto, este trabalho tem por objetivo medir a sensibilidade da receita de ICMS em Goiás frente a mudanças no nível da atividade econômica. Para tanto, estimam-se as elasticidades de curto e de longo prazo do ICMS goiano em resposta a variações no PIB nacional a preços básicos, por meio dos métodos de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO), Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários Dinâmicos (MQOD), MQO com Correção de Erros e MQO com Correção de Erros permitindo respostas assimétricas. Essas elasticidades são estimadas também para os maiores setores de atividade econômica em termos de arrecadação de ICMS. São utilizadas séries trimestrais no período entre o 1ª trimestre de 2003 e o 1º trimestre de 2020. Dentre as principais verificações empíricas, observa-se, como desejável, uma arrecadação de ICMS elástica ao PIB no longo prazo, indicando que o ICMS goiano acompanha o crescimento da economia brasileira, com elasticidade de 1,32121. No curto prazo, a receita de ICMS é inelástica ao PIB, apresentando certa estabilidade durante as crises cíclicas, com crescimento de cerca de 0,97% a cada 1% de crescimento do PIB. Verifica-se, ainda, que a arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás apresenta respostas assimétricas no curto prazo. Quando abaixo do equilíbrio de longo prazo, a elasticidade de curto prazo é de 0,753, mais inelástica que no modelo sem assimetria. Por outro lado, quando acima do equilíbrio de longo prazo, apresenta uma arrecadação de curto prazo elástica e igual a 1,209016.Submitted by Liliane Ferreira (ljuvencia30@gmail.com) on 2021-01-21T13:31:58Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Wederson Xavier de Oliveira - 2020.pdf: 2042148 bytes, checksum: 747e65ff3675f0a864c96940f8cfb044 (MD5) license_rdf: 805 bytes, checksum: 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2021-01-22T12:03:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Wederson Xavier de Oliveira - 2020.pdf: 2042148 bytes, checksum: 747e65ff3675f0a864c96940f8cfb044 (MD5) license_rdf: 805 bytes, checksum: 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2021-01-22T12:03:59Z (GMT). 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade |
title |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade |
spellingShingle |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade Oliveira, Wederson Xavier de Política fiscal Equilíbrio orçamentário Elasticidade receita-renda ICMS Crescimento da receita tributária Fiscal policy Budget balance Revenue-income elasticity Value-added tax Taxrevenue growth CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade |
title_full |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade |
title_fullStr |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade |
title_sort |
Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade |
author |
Oliveira, Wederson Xavier de |
author_facet |
Oliveira, Wederson Xavier de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5484881117429853 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Teixeira, Anderson Mutter |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Ely, Regis Augusto |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6119546498920806 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, Wederson Xavier de |
contributor_str_mv |
Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo Teixeira, Anderson Mutter Ely, Regis Augusto |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Política fiscal Equilíbrio orçamentário Elasticidade receita-renda ICMS Crescimento da receita tributária |
topic |
Política fiscal Equilíbrio orçamentário Elasticidade receita-renda ICMS Crescimento da receita tributária Fiscal policy Budget balance Revenue-income elasticity Value-added tax Taxrevenue growth CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Fiscal policy Budget balance Revenue-income elasticity Value-added tax Taxrevenue growth |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
For the appropriate conducting of fiscal policy is important understand how tax revenue responds to macroeconomic changes, quantifying its sensitivity. Incorrect forecasts about growth of tax revenue can lead to mistakes in the elaboration of the government budget of the following year, compromising fiscal balance. In addition to quantifying this sensitivity in the long run, it’s also of fundamental importance to know how tax revenue develops in face of short-term fluctuations in the level of economic activity, because the correct estimative of revenue, within the financial year, allows matching the expenditure execution to the pace of revenue collection, achieving the budget balance. In this context, this work aims to measure the sensitivity of VAT (Value-Added Tax) revenue in Goiás in face of changes in the level of economic activity. For this goal, short and long-term elasticities of VAT are estimated in response to changes in GDP, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), OLS with Error Correction Model and OLS with Error Correction allowing asymmetrical responses. These elasticities are also estimated for the largest sectors of economy in terms of VAT. Quarterly series are used in the period between 1st quarter of 2003 and 1st quarter of 2020. Among the main empirical verifications, it’s observed, as desirable, a tax revenue elastic to GDP in the long run, indicating that VAT in Goiás accompanies the growth of the Brazilian economy, with an elasticity of 1.32121. In the short term, VAT revenue is inelastic to GDP, showing some stability during cyclical crises, with growth of around 0.97% for every 1% of GDP growth. It’s also verified that the tax revenue in Goiás presents asymmetrical responses in the short term. When below the long-term equilibrium, the short-term elasticity is 0.753, more inelastic than in the model without asymmetry. On the other hand, when above of the long-term equilibrium, it presents an elastic tax revenue, equal to 1.209016. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2020-12-18 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-01-22T12:03:59Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2021-01-22T12:03:59Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
OLIVEIRA, W. X. Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade. 2020. 75 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2020. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/11050 |
identifier_str_mv |
OLIVEIRA, W. X. Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade. 2020. 75 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2020. |
url |
http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/11050 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
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por |
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35 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
500 500 500 |
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7 |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
211 |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Goiás |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-graduação em Economia (FACE) |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFG |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Faculdade de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Ciências Econômicas - FACE (RG) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Goiás |
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