Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Sariişik, Mehmet
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Türkay, Oğuz, Şengül, Serkan, Murat Bicil, İbrahim, Boğan, Erhan
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/33258
Resumo: The main purpose of this study is to generate estimates of the total income and tourist arrivals in the tourism industry with the Covid-19 pandemic in the next five years (2020-2024). For this purpose, estimates were produced through ARV formulation considering the secondary data obtained from the official statistics in the 1995-2018 UNWTO reports and three different scenarios published in the World Economic Outlook April report. Taking the emerging results into account, if the Covid-19 pandemic lasts longer than expected (the best of the worst scenario), the next five years’ average tourist arrival shrinkage maybe -5,04% and an economic loss of $70.6 billion may occur. However, according to the worst-case scenario, an annual contraction of -11.54% and an economic loss of 141.8 billion dollars are expected in the tourism sector.
id UFJF-2_c843b17679ca0820713328100a539467
oai_identifier_str oai:periodicos.ufjf.br:article/33258
network_acronym_str UFJF-2
network_name_str Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
repository_id_str
spelling Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024El Choque del Covid-19 a la Industria Turística: Posibles Escenarios de Pérdidas Predecidas Entre 2020-2024Covid-19 Choque na Indústria do Turismo: Cenários Possíveis para Perdas Previstas Entre 2020-2024Covid-19 and tourismArrival estimatesIncome estimatesCovid-19 and economyCovid-19 y turismoEstimaciones de llegadaEstimaciones de ingresosCovid-19 y economíaCovid-19 e turismoEstimativas de chegadaEstimativas de receitaCovid-19 e economiaThe main purpose of this study is to generate estimates of the total income and tourist arrivals in the tourism industry with the Covid-19 pandemic in the next five years (2020-2024). For this purpose, estimates were produced through ARV formulation considering the secondary data obtained from the official statistics in the 1995-2018 UNWTO reports and three different scenarios published in the World Economic Outlook April report. Taking the emerging results into account, if the Covid-19 pandemic lasts longer than expected (the best of the worst scenario), the next five years’ average tourist arrival shrinkage maybe -5,04% and an economic loss of $70.6 billion may occur. However, according to the worst-case scenario, an annual contraction of -11.54% and an economic loss of 141.8 billion dollars are expected in the tourism sector.El objetivo principal de este estudio es generar estimaciones de los ingresos totales y llegadas de turistas en la industria turística con la pandemia Covid-19 en los próximos cinco años (2020-2024). Para ello, se realizaron estimaciones mediante la formulación de ARV considerando los datos secundarios obtenidos de las estadísticas oficiales en los informes de la OMT 1995-2018 y tres escenarios diferentes publicados en el informe Perspectivas de la economía mundial de abril. Teniendo en cuenta los resultados emergentes, si la pandemia Covid-19 dura más de lo esperado (el mejor de los peores escenarios), la contracción promedio de llegadas de turistas en los próximos cinco años puede ser del -5,04% y puede ocurrir una pérdida económica de $ 70,6 mil millones. Sin embargo, según el peor escenario, se espera una contracción anual del -11,54% y una pérdida económica de 141,8 mil millones de dólares en el sector turístico.O objetivo principal deste estudo é gerar estimativas da receita total e das chegadas de turistas na indústria do turismo com a pandemia Covid-19 nos próximos cinco anos (2020-2024). Para tanto, foram produzidas estimativas por meio da formulação de ARVs considerando os dados secundários obtidos nas estatísticas oficiais dos relatórios da OMT 1995-2018 e três cenários diferentes publicados no relatório World Economic Outlook de abril. Levando em consideração os resultados emergentes, se a pandemia de Covid-19 durar mais do que o esperado (o melhor do pior cenário), a redução média da chegada de turistas nos próximos cinco anos pode ser de -5,04% e uma perda econômica de $ 70,6 bilhões pode ocorrer. No entanto, de acordo com o pior cenário, uma contração anual de -11,54% e uma perda econômica de 141,8 bilhões de dólares são esperados no setor de turismo.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora/UFJF2021-10-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/3325810.5281/zenodo.5770234Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19” Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19” Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19” 2238-2925reponame:Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticosinstname:Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)instacron:UFJFenghttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/33258/23461Copyright (c) 2021 Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - ABEThttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSariişik, Mehmet Türkay, Oğuz Şengül, Serkan Murat Bicil, İbrahim Boğan, Erhan 2024-03-22T21:22:24Zoai:periodicos.ufjf.br:article/33258Revistahttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/indexPUBhttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/oairevista.abet@ufjf.edu.br || thiago.pimentel@ufjf.edu.br2238-29252238-2925opendoar:2024-03-22T21:22:24Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
El Choque del Covid-19 a la Industria Turística: Posibles Escenarios de Pérdidas Predecidas Entre 2020-2024
Covid-19 Choque na Indústria do Turismo: Cenários Possíveis para Perdas Previstas Entre 2020-2024
title Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
spellingShingle Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
Sariişik, Mehmet
Covid-19 and tourism
Arrival estimates
Income estimates
Covid-19 and economy
Covid-19 y turismo
Estimaciones de llegada
Estimaciones de ingresos
Covid-19 y economía
Covid-19 e turismo
Estimativas de chegada
Estimativas de receita
Covid-19 e economia
title_short Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
title_full Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
title_fullStr Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
title_full_unstemmed Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
title_sort Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
author Sariişik, Mehmet
author_facet Sariişik, Mehmet
Türkay, Oğuz
Şengül, Serkan
Murat Bicil, İbrahim
Boğan, Erhan
author_role author
author2 Türkay, Oğuz
Şengül, Serkan
Murat Bicil, İbrahim
Boğan, Erhan
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Sariişik, Mehmet
Türkay, Oğuz
Şengül, Serkan
Murat Bicil, İbrahim
Boğan, Erhan
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Covid-19 and tourism
Arrival estimates
Income estimates
Covid-19 and economy
Covid-19 y turismo
Estimaciones de llegada
Estimaciones de ingresos
Covid-19 y economía
Covid-19 e turismo
Estimativas de chegada
Estimativas de receita
Covid-19 e economia
topic Covid-19 and tourism
Arrival estimates
Income estimates
Covid-19 and economy
Covid-19 y turismo
Estimaciones de llegada
Estimaciones de ingresos
Covid-19 y economía
Covid-19 e turismo
Estimativas de chegada
Estimativas de receita
Covid-19 e economia
description The main purpose of this study is to generate estimates of the total income and tourist arrivals in the tourism industry with the Covid-19 pandemic in the next five years (2020-2024). For this purpose, estimates were produced through ARV formulation considering the secondary data obtained from the official statistics in the 1995-2018 UNWTO reports and three different scenarios published in the World Economic Outlook April report. Taking the emerging results into account, if the Covid-19 pandemic lasts longer than expected (the best of the worst scenario), the next five years’ average tourist arrival shrinkage maybe -5,04% and an economic loss of $70.6 billion may occur. However, according to the worst-case scenario, an annual contraction of -11.54% and an economic loss of 141.8 billion dollars are expected in the tourism sector.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-10-11
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/33258
10.5281/zenodo.5770234
url https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/33258
identifier_str_mv 10.5281/zenodo.5770234
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/33258/23461
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - ABET
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - ABET
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora/UFJF
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora/UFJF
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19”
Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19”
Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19”
2238-2925
reponame:Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
instname:Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)
instacron:UFJF
instname_str Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)
instacron_str UFJF
institution UFJF
reponame_str Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
collection Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
repository.name.fl_str_mv Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv revista.abet@ufjf.edu.br || thiago.pimentel@ufjf.edu.br
_version_ 1798044891094188032

Registros relacionados