Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Silva, Simão Corrêa
Data de Publicação: 2015
Outros Autores: Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de, Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira, Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFLA
Texto Completo: http://www.cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/28
http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/14430
Resumo: Cerrado vegetation is Brazil’s second largest biome, comprising about 388 municipalities in Minas Gerais state alone and serving as an important source of natural resources. A large share of the wood charcoal produced in Minas Gerais is sourced from Cerrado vegetation. The objective of this work is to assess the economic viability of Cerrado vegetation management for wood charcoal production, under conditions of risk. The study site is a fragment of Cerrado subjected to five levels of intervention as to basal area removal. For risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was applied, using charcoal price, interest rate and land value as input variables, and using Net Present Value as output variable over an infinite planning horizon. It was concluded that introducing risk in the economic analysis of the various Cerrado management regimes helped provide additional information to that obtained by deterministic analysis, improving understanding and ensuring safety in decision-making about the economic viability of such regimes. For all treatments, the probability of VPL being negative increases with increasing cutting cycle lengths. For all treatments, the optimal cutting cycle is ten years. Treatments where a larger volume of wood was removed proved less prone to risks of economic inviability since they secure more revenue than treatments where less wood was removed.
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spelling Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of riskMonte Carlo simulation, forest economics, risk analysis, Cerrado vegetationCerrado vegetation is Brazil’s second largest biome, comprising about 388 municipalities in Minas Gerais state alone and serving as an important source of natural resources. A large share of the wood charcoal produced in Minas Gerais is sourced from Cerrado vegetation. The objective of this work is to assess the economic viability of Cerrado vegetation management for wood charcoal production, under conditions of risk. The study site is a fragment of Cerrado subjected to five levels of intervention as to basal area removal. For risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was applied, using charcoal price, interest rate and land value as input variables, and using Net Present Value as output variable over an infinite planning horizon. It was concluded that introducing risk in the economic analysis of the various Cerrado management regimes helped provide additional information to that obtained by deterministic analysis, improving understanding and ensuring safety in decision-making about the economic viability of such regimes. For all treatments, the probability of VPL being negative increases with increasing cutting cycle lengths. For all treatments, the optimal cutting cycle is ten years. Treatments where a larger volume of wood was removed proved less prone to risks of economic inviability since they secure more revenue than treatments where less wood was removed.CERNECERNE2015-05-042017-08-01T20:14:39Z2017-08-01T20:14:39Z2017-08-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://www.cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/28http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/14430CERNE; Vol 17 No 2 (2011); 141-149CERNE; Vol 17 No 2 (2011); 141-1492317-63420104-7760reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLAinstname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)instacron:UFLAporhttp://www.cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/28/22Copyright (c) 2015 Simão Corrêa Silva, Antonio Donizette de Oliveira, Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior, José Luiz Pereira de Rezendeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva, Simão CorrêaOliveira, Antonio Donizette deCoelho Junior, Luiz MoreiraRezende, José Luiz Pereira de2017-08-01T20:14:39Zoai:localhost:1/14430Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.ufla.br/oai/requestnivaldo@ufla.br || repositorio.biblioteca@ufla.bropendoar:2017-08-01T20:14:39Repositório Institucional da UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
title Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
spellingShingle Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
Silva, Simão Corrêa
Monte Carlo simulation, forest economics, risk analysis, Cerrado vegetation
title_short Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
title_full Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
title_fullStr Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
title_full_unstemmed Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
title_sort Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk
author Silva, Simão Corrêa
author_facet Silva, Simão Corrêa
Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de
Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira
Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de
author_role author
author2 Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de
Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira
Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Silva, Simão Corrêa
Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de
Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira
Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Monte Carlo simulation, forest economics, risk analysis, Cerrado vegetation
topic Monte Carlo simulation, forest economics, risk analysis, Cerrado vegetation
description Cerrado vegetation is Brazil’s second largest biome, comprising about 388 municipalities in Minas Gerais state alone and serving as an important source of natural resources. A large share of the wood charcoal produced in Minas Gerais is sourced from Cerrado vegetation. The objective of this work is to assess the economic viability of Cerrado vegetation management for wood charcoal production, under conditions of risk. The study site is a fragment of Cerrado subjected to five levels of intervention as to basal area removal. For risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was applied, using charcoal price, interest rate and land value as input variables, and using Net Present Value as output variable over an infinite planning horizon. It was concluded that introducing risk in the economic analysis of the various Cerrado management regimes helped provide additional information to that obtained by deterministic analysis, improving understanding and ensuring safety in decision-making about the economic viability of such regimes. For all treatments, the probability of VPL being negative increases with increasing cutting cycle lengths. For all treatments, the optimal cutting cycle is ten years. Treatments where a larger volume of wood was removed proved less prone to risks of economic inviability since they secure more revenue than treatments where less wood was removed.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-05-04
2017-08-01T20:14:39Z
2017-08-01T20:14:39Z
2017-08-01
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format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/28
http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/14430
url http://www.cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/28
http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/14430
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://www.cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/28/22
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv CERNE
CERNE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv CERNE
CERNE
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv CERNE; Vol 17 No 2 (2011); 141-149
CERNE; Vol 17 No 2 (2011); 141-149
2317-6342
0104-7760
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLA
instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)
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