ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de, Carvalho, Samuel de Pádua Chaves, Gomide, Lucas Rezende
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Ciência Florestal (Online)
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215
Resumo: The objective of this study was to determine the economic cycle rotation of eucalyptus plantations in three productivity sites over hazardous conditions. The data used on this study, released by the company Fibria Celulose. Besides the timber production data, it was also given the company cash flow. It was from an even-aged stand and a monoclonal stand both of Eucalyptus urograndis. For the risk analysis, the study used Monte Carlo method, having as a result of the simulation the Net Present Value for Infinite Series, using as an input variable and/or source of uncertainty, the probability distributions of the land and wood prices, the costs of harvesting and transportation activities, the interest rate and also the timber production. The simulation consisted in carrying out 10,000 interactions, where it was obtained the necessary information for the development of the next analysis. As a conclusion the optimal rotation for cutting was 6, 8 and 11 years on the good sites (I), regular sites(II) and poor sites(III) respectively, being consistent with the biological laws of growth. Another conclusion is that even under the same management conditions, more productive sites generate greater economic returns and therefore lower risk in adverse economic scenarios.
id UFSM-6_78fd0846bc31c4d49e8953bf7aedc8c3
oai_identifier_str oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/30215
network_acronym_str UFSM-6
network_name_str Ciência Florestal (Online)
repository_id_str
spelling ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DA ROTAÇÃO FLORESTAL DE POVOAMENTOS DE EUCALIPTO UTILIZANDO A SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLOforest economicsMonte Carlo simulationEucalyptus.forest economicsMonte Carlo simulationEucalyptus.The objective of this study was to determine the economic cycle rotation of eucalyptus plantations in three productivity sites over hazardous conditions. The data used on this study, released by the company Fibria Celulose. Besides the timber production data, it was also given the company cash flow. It was from an even-aged stand and a monoclonal stand both of Eucalyptus urograndis. For the risk analysis, the study used Monte Carlo method, having as a result of the simulation the Net Present Value for Infinite Series, using as an input variable and/or source of uncertainty, the probability distributions of the land and wood prices, the costs of harvesting and transportation activities, the interest rate and also the timber production. The simulation consisted in carrying out 10,000 interactions, where it was obtained the necessary information for the development of the next analysis. As a conclusion the optimal rotation for cutting was 6, 8 and 11 years on the good sites (I), regular sites(II) and poor sites(III) respectively, being consistent with the biological laws of growth. Another conclusion is that even under the same management conditions, more productive sites generate greater economic returns and therefore lower risk in adverse economic scenarios.O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar a rotação econômica de plantações de eucalipto em três diferentes sítios produtivos sob condições de risco. Os dados utilizados na realização do estudo são provenientes de plantios equiâneos e monoclonais do híbrido Eucalyptus urograndis, e cedidos pela empresa Fibria Celulose. Além dos dados de produção das áreas foram também cedidas as informações de fluxo de caixa. Para a análise de risco utilizou-se o método de Monte Carlo, tendo como resultado da simulação o Valor Presente Líquido para séries Infinitas e, como variáveis de entrada e/ou fontes de incertezas, as distribuições de probabilidade referentes ao preço da terra e da madeira, o custo de colheita e transporte, a taxa de juros e além da produção de madeira. A simulação constituiu na realização 10.000 de iterações, em que foram obtidas as informações necessárias ao prosseguimento das análises. Concluiu-se que a rotação ótima para corte foi de 6, 8 e 11 anos nos sítios bom (I), médio (II) e ruim (III), respectivamente, sendo, portanto, condizente com as leis biológicas de crescimento. Conclui-se ainda que sob as mesmas condições de manejo, sítios mais produtivos geram maior retorno econômico e por consequência menor risco em cenários econômicos desfavoráveis.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria2017-12-30info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/3021510.5902/1980509830215Ciência Florestal; Vol. 27 No. 4 (2017); 1339-1347Ciência Florestal; v. 27 n. 4 (2017); 1339-13471980-50980103-9954reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMporhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215/pdfCopyright (c) 2017 Ciência Florestalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGonçalves, Juliana CarneiroOliveira, Antônio Donizette deCarvalho, Samuel de Pádua ChavesGomide, Lucas Rezende2018-03-09T18:48:44Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/30215Revistahttp://www.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/ONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br1980-50980103-9954opendoar:2018-03-09T18:48:44Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
ANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DA ROTAÇÃO FLORESTAL DE POVOAMENTOS DE EUCALIPTO UTILIZANDO A SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLO
title ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
spellingShingle ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro
forest economics
Monte Carlo simulation
Eucalyptus.
forest economics
Monte Carlo simulation
Eucalyptus.
title_short ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
title_full ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
title_fullStr ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
title_full_unstemmed ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
title_sort ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
author Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro
author_facet Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro
Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de
Carvalho, Samuel de Pádua Chaves
Gomide, Lucas Rezende
author_role author
author2 Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de
Carvalho, Samuel de Pádua Chaves
Gomide, Lucas Rezende
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro
Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de
Carvalho, Samuel de Pádua Chaves
Gomide, Lucas Rezende
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv forest economics
Monte Carlo simulation
Eucalyptus.
forest economics
Monte Carlo simulation
Eucalyptus.
topic forest economics
Monte Carlo simulation
Eucalyptus.
forest economics
Monte Carlo simulation
Eucalyptus.
description The objective of this study was to determine the economic cycle rotation of eucalyptus plantations in three productivity sites over hazardous conditions. The data used on this study, released by the company Fibria Celulose. Besides the timber production data, it was also given the company cash flow. It was from an even-aged stand and a monoclonal stand both of Eucalyptus urograndis. For the risk analysis, the study used Monte Carlo method, having as a result of the simulation the Net Present Value for Infinite Series, using as an input variable and/or source of uncertainty, the probability distributions of the land and wood prices, the costs of harvesting and transportation activities, the interest rate and also the timber production. The simulation consisted in carrying out 10,000 interactions, where it was obtained the necessary information for the development of the next analysis. As a conclusion the optimal rotation for cutting was 6, 8 and 11 years on the good sites (I), regular sites(II) and poor sites(III) respectively, being consistent with the biological laws of growth. Another conclusion is that even under the same management conditions, more productive sites generate greater economic returns and therefore lower risk in adverse economic scenarios.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-12-30
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215
10.5902/1980509830215
url https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215
identifier_str_mv 10.5902/1980509830215
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215/pdf
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Ciência Florestal
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Ciência Florestal
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Ciência Florestal; Vol. 27 No. 4 (2017); 1339-1347
Ciência Florestal; v. 27 n. 4 (2017); 1339-1347
1980-5098
0103-9954
reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
instacron:UFSM
instname_str Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
instacron_str UFSM
institution UFSM
reponame_str Ciência Florestal (Online)
collection Ciência Florestal (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br
_version_ 1799944132584538112