ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Ciência Florestal (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215 |
Resumo: | The objective of this study was to determine the economic cycle rotation of eucalyptus plantations in three productivity sites over hazardous conditions. The data used on this study, released by the company Fibria Celulose. Besides the timber production data, it was also given the company cash flow. It was from an even-aged stand and a monoclonal stand both of Eucalyptus urograndis. For the risk analysis, the study used Monte Carlo method, having as a result of the simulation the Net Present Value for Infinite Series, using as an input variable and/or source of uncertainty, the probability distributions of the land and wood prices, the costs of harvesting and transportation activities, the interest rate and also the timber production. The simulation consisted in carrying out 10,000 interactions, where it was obtained the necessary information for the development of the next analysis. As a conclusion the optimal rotation for cutting was 6, 8 and 11 years on the good sites (I), regular sites(II) and poor sites(III) respectively, being consistent with the biological laws of growth. Another conclusion is that even under the same management conditions, more productive sites generate greater economic returns and therefore lower risk in adverse economic scenarios. |
id |
UFSM-6_78fd0846bc31c4d49e8953bf7aedc8c3 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/30215 |
network_acronym_str |
UFSM-6 |
network_name_str |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DA ROTAÇÃO FLORESTAL DE POVOAMENTOS DE EUCALIPTO UTILIZANDO A SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLOforest economicsMonte Carlo simulationEucalyptus.forest economicsMonte Carlo simulationEucalyptus.The objective of this study was to determine the economic cycle rotation of eucalyptus plantations in three productivity sites over hazardous conditions. The data used on this study, released by the company Fibria Celulose. Besides the timber production data, it was also given the company cash flow. It was from an even-aged stand and a monoclonal stand both of Eucalyptus urograndis. For the risk analysis, the study used Monte Carlo method, having as a result of the simulation the Net Present Value for Infinite Series, using as an input variable and/or source of uncertainty, the probability distributions of the land and wood prices, the costs of harvesting and transportation activities, the interest rate and also the timber production. The simulation consisted in carrying out 10,000 interactions, where it was obtained the necessary information for the development of the next analysis. As a conclusion the optimal rotation for cutting was 6, 8 and 11 years on the good sites (I), regular sites(II) and poor sites(III) respectively, being consistent with the biological laws of growth. Another conclusion is that even under the same management conditions, more productive sites generate greater economic returns and therefore lower risk in adverse economic scenarios.O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar a rotação econômica de plantações de eucalipto em três diferentes sítios produtivos sob condições de risco. Os dados utilizados na realização do estudo são provenientes de plantios equiâneos e monoclonais do híbrido Eucalyptus urograndis, e cedidos pela empresa Fibria Celulose. Além dos dados de produção das áreas foram também cedidas as informações de fluxo de caixa. Para a análise de risco utilizou-se o método de Monte Carlo, tendo como resultado da simulação o Valor Presente Líquido para séries Infinitas e, como variáveis de entrada e/ou fontes de incertezas, as distribuições de probabilidade referentes ao preço da terra e da madeira, o custo de colheita e transporte, a taxa de juros e além da produção de madeira. A simulação constituiu na realização 10.000 de iterações, em que foram obtidas as informações necessárias ao prosseguimento das análises. Concluiu-se que a rotação ótima para corte foi de 6, 8 e 11 anos nos sítios bom (I), médio (II) e ruim (III), respectivamente, sendo, portanto, condizente com as leis biológicas de crescimento. Conclui-se ainda que sob as mesmas condições de manejo, sítios mais produtivos geram maior retorno econômico e por consequência menor risco em cenários econômicos desfavoráveis.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria2017-12-30info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/3021510.5902/1980509830215Ciência Florestal; Vol. 27 No. 4 (2017); 1339-1347Ciência Florestal; v. 27 n. 4 (2017); 1339-13471980-50980103-9954reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMporhttps://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215/pdfCopyright (c) 2017 Ciência Florestalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGonçalves, Juliana CarneiroOliveira, Antônio Donizette deCarvalho, Samuel de Pádua ChavesGomide, Lucas Rezende2018-03-09T18:48:44Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/30215Revistahttp://www.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/ONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br1980-50980103-9954opendoar:2018-03-09T18:48:44Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION ANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DA ROTAÇÃO FLORESTAL DE POVOAMENTOS DE EUCALIPTO UTILIZANDO A SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLO |
title |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION |
spellingShingle |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro forest economics Monte Carlo simulation Eucalyptus. forest economics Monte Carlo simulation Eucalyptus. |
title_short |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION |
title_full |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION |
title_fullStr |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION |
title_full_unstemmed |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION |
title_sort |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION |
author |
Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro |
author_facet |
Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de Carvalho, Samuel de Pádua Chaves Gomide, Lucas Rezende |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de Carvalho, Samuel de Pádua Chaves Gomide, Lucas Rezende |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Gonçalves, Juliana Carneiro Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de Carvalho, Samuel de Pádua Chaves Gomide, Lucas Rezende |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
forest economics Monte Carlo simulation Eucalyptus. forest economics Monte Carlo simulation Eucalyptus. |
topic |
forest economics Monte Carlo simulation Eucalyptus. forest economics Monte Carlo simulation Eucalyptus. |
description |
The objective of this study was to determine the economic cycle rotation of eucalyptus plantations in three productivity sites over hazardous conditions. The data used on this study, released by the company Fibria Celulose. Besides the timber production data, it was also given the company cash flow. It was from an even-aged stand and a monoclonal stand both of Eucalyptus urograndis. For the risk analysis, the study used Monte Carlo method, having as a result of the simulation the Net Present Value for Infinite Series, using as an input variable and/or source of uncertainty, the probability distributions of the land and wood prices, the costs of harvesting and transportation activities, the interest rate and also the timber production. The simulation consisted in carrying out 10,000 interactions, where it was obtained the necessary information for the development of the next analysis. As a conclusion the optimal rotation for cutting was 6, 8 and 11 years on the good sites (I), regular sites(II) and poor sites(III) respectively, being consistent with the biological laws of growth. Another conclusion is that even under the same management conditions, more productive sites generate greater economic returns and therefore lower risk in adverse economic scenarios. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-12-30 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215 10.5902/1980509830215 |
url |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5902/1980509830215 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufsm.br/cienciaflorestal/article/view/30215/pdf |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2017 Ciência Florestal info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2017 Ciência Florestal |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal; Vol. 27 No. 4 (2017); 1339-1347 Ciência Florestal; v. 27 n. 4 (2017); 1339-1347 1980-5098 0103-9954 reponame:Ciência Florestal (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
collection |
Ciência Florestal (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Ciência Florestal (Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||cienciaflorestal@ufsm.br|| cienciaflorestal@gmail.com|| cf@smail.ufsm.br |
_version_ |
1799944132584538112 |