Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Nova Economia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/4180 |
Resumo: | This paper analyses the short and long run effects of exchange rate devaluation on the net exports, in the trade balance, as well as in the balances of basics and industrial goods for a panel of Brazilian states, making use of Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) models and Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (PDOLS) estimators. The first technique is used to investigate the existence of the J curve phenomenon, and the latter to validate of Marshall-Lerner condition. In all cases, the response of the net exports from that states after an exchange rate devaluation is shown to be positive, thus confirming the Marshall-Lerner condition. This response is greater for trade balance of industrialized goods. As described by the theoretical model, domestic income presents a negative and statistically robust impact in all net exports considered, while foreign income presents a positive effect. The results still show evidence of the J curve for the total and industrialized goods. |
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Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian statesTaxa de câmbio e exportações líquidas: uma análise para os estados brasileirosThis paper analyses the short and long run effects of exchange rate devaluation on the net exports, in the trade balance, as well as in the balances of basics and industrial goods for a panel of Brazilian states, making use of Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) models and Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (PDOLS) estimators. The first technique is used to investigate the existence of the J curve phenomenon, and the latter to validate of Marshall-Lerner condition. In all cases, the response of the net exports from that states after an exchange rate devaluation is shown to be positive, thus confirming the Marshall-Lerner condition. This response is greater for trade balance of industrialized goods. As described by the theoretical model, domestic income presents a negative and statistically robust impact in all net exports considered, while foreign income presents a positive effect. The results still show evidence of the J curve for the total and industrialized goods.Este artigo analisa os impactos de curto e de longo prazo das desvalorizações cambiais sobre as exportações líquidas totais, de básicos e de industrializados para um painel de estados brasileiros a partir da aplicação de modelos Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR), para testar a ocorrência do fenômeno da curva J, e do Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (PDOLS), para investigar a validade da condição de Marshall-Lerner. Em todos os modelos considerados a resposta das exportações líquidas dos estados brasileiros a uma depreciação cambial se mostra positiva, validando, portanto, a condição de Marshall-Lerner. Essa resposta é maior para os bens industrializados. Como previsto pela teoria, a renda doméstica apresenta impacto negativo e estatisticamente robusto sobre o saldo comercial, enquanto a renda externa apresenta repercussão positiva. Os resultados indicam a ocorrência da curva J para os totais e os industrializados.Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG2020-06-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/4180Nova Economia; Vol. 30 No. 1 (2020); 111-142Nova Economia; v. 30 n. 1 (2020); 111-1421980-53810103-6351reponame:Nova Economia (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGporhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/4180/3103Copyright (c) 2020 Elano Ferreira Arruda, Gabriel Martinsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessArruda, Elano FerreiraMartins, Gabriel2020-10-04T22:21:26Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/4180Revistahttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomiaPUBhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/oai||ne@face.ufmg.br1980-53810103-6351opendoar:2020-10-04T22:21:26Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states Taxa de câmbio e exportações líquidas: uma análise para os estados brasileiros |
title |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states |
spellingShingle |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states Arruda, Elano Ferreira |
title_short |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states |
title_full |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states |
title_fullStr |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states |
title_sort |
Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the Brazilian states |
author |
Arruda, Elano Ferreira |
author_facet |
Arruda, Elano Ferreira Martins, Gabriel |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Martins, Gabriel |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Arruda, Elano Ferreira Martins, Gabriel |
description |
This paper analyses the short and long run effects of exchange rate devaluation on the net exports, in the trade balance, as well as in the balances of basics and industrial goods for a panel of Brazilian states, making use of Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) models and Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (PDOLS) estimators. The first technique is used to investigate the existence of the J curve phenomenon, and the latter to validate of Marshall-Lerner condition. In all cases, the response of the net exports from that states after an exchange rate devaluation is shown to be positive, thus confirming the Marshall-Lerner condition. This response is greater for trade balance of industrialized goods. As described by the theoretical model, domestic income presents a negative and statistically robust impact in all net exports considered, while foreign income presents a positive effect. The results still show evidence of the J curve for the total and industrialized goods. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-06-10 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/4180 |
url |
https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/4180 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/4180/3103 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Elano Ferreira Arruda, Gabriel Martins info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Elano Ferreira Arruda, Gabriel Martins |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Nova Economia; Vol. 30 No. 1 (2020); 111-142 Nova Economia; v. 30 n. 1 (2020); 111-142 1980-5381 0103-6351 reponame:Nova Economia (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) instacron:UFMG |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) |
instacron_str |
UFMG |
institution |
UFMG |
reponame_str |
Nova Economia (Online) |
collection |
Nova Economia (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||ne@face.ufmg.br |
_version_ |
1799711059752255488 |