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2024-03-14T14:30:56Z2024-03-14T14:30:56Z20183921015919952051https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-51474-547Xhttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/65841https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9690-575XBackground: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Contexto: As estimativas populacionais sustentam a investigação demográfica e epidemiológica e são utilizadas para acompanhar o progresso em numerosos indicadores internacionais de saúde e desenvolvimento. Até à data, as estimativas de população e fertilidade disponíveis internacionalmente, embora úteis, não foram produzidas com métodos transparentes e replicáveis e não utilizam estimativas padronizadas de mortalidade. Apresentamos estimativas de fertilidade e população por sexo com um único ano civil e um único ano de idade com métodos padronizados e replicáveis. Métodos: Estimamos a população em 195 locais por ano de idade e ano civil de 1950 a 2017 com métodos padronizados e replicáveis. Baseámos as estimativas na equação de equilíbrio demográfico, com dados de fertilidade, mortalidade, população e migração. Os dados de fertilidade vieram de 7.817 locais-anos de dados de registro vital, 429 pesquisas relatando históricos completos de nascimentos e 977 pesquisas e censos relatando históricos resumidos de nascimentos. Estimamos as taxas de fertilidade específicas por idade (ASFRs; o número anual de nascidos vivos de mulheres de uma faixa etária específica por 1.000 mulheres nessa faixa etária) usando a regressão do processo gaussiano espaço-temporal e usamos as ASFRs para estimar as taxas de fertilidade total (TFRs; o número médio de filhos que uma mulher teria se sobrevivesse até o final da idade reprodutiva [idade 10-54 anos] e experimentasse em cada idade um conjunto específico de ASFRs observados no ano de interesse). Devido à escassez de dados, a fertilidade nas idades de 10-14 anos e 50-54 anos foi estimada a partir de dados sobre fertilidade em mulheres de 15-19 anos e 45-49 anos, através da utilização de regressão linear. Os dados de mortalidade específicos por idade vieram das estimativas de 2017 do Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Os dados sobre a população vieram de 1.257 censos e 761 locais-anos de registro populacional e foram ajustados para subenumeração e declaração incorreta de idade com métodos demográficos padrão. A migração foi estimada com o modelo de equilíbrio demográfico Bayesiano do GBD, após incorporar informações sobre a migração de refugiados no modelo anterior. As estimativas finais da população utilizaram o método de componente de coorte de projecção populacional, com dados de fertilidade, mortalidade e migração. A incerteza populacional foi estimada pelo uso de testes de validade preditiva fora da amostra. Com estes dados, estimámos as tendências da população por idade e sexo e da fertilidade por idade entre 1950 e 2017 em 195 países e territórios. Constatações: De 1950 a 2017, as TFT diminuíram 49,4% (intervalo de incerteza [UI] de 95% 46,4–52,0). A TFT diminuiu de 4,7 nascidos vivos (4,5–4,9) para 2,4 nascidos vivos (2,2–2,5), e a ASFR das mães com idade entre 10–19 anos diminuiu de 37 nascidos vivos (34–40 ) para 22 nascidos vivos (19–24) por 1.000 mulheres. Apesar das reduções na TFT, a população global tem aumentado em média 83,8 milhões de pessoas por ano desde 1985. A população global aumentou 197,2% (193,3–200,8) desde 1950, de 2,6 mil milhões (2,5–2,6) a 7,6 mil milhões (7,4–7,9) de pessoas em 2017; grande parte deste aumento ocorreu na proporção da população global no sul da Ásia e na África Subsaariana. A taxa anual global de crescimento populacional aumentou entre 1950 e 1964, quando atingiu o pico de 2,0%; esta taxa permaneceu quase constante até 1970 e depois diminuiu para 1,1% em 2017. As taxas de crescimento populacional no sudeste da Ásia, leste da Ásia e Oceania na super-região do GBD diminuíram de 2,5% em 1963 para 0,7% em 2017, enquanto na África Subsariana, as taxas de crescimento populacional estiveram quase nos níveis mais elevados registados de sempre em 2017, quando eram de 2,7%. A idade média global aumentou de 26,6 anos em 1950 para 32,1 anos em 2017, e a proporção da população em idade ativa (15-64 anos) aumentou de 59,9% para 65,3%. A nível nacional, a TFR diminuiu em todos os países e territórios entre 1950 e 2017; em 2017, as TFT variaram entre um mínimo de 1,0 nados vivos (95% UI 0,9–1,2) em Chipre e um máximo de 7,1 nados vivos (6,8–7,4) no Níger. A TFT com menos de 25 anos (TFU25; número de nascidos vivos esperados até os 25 anos para uma mulher hipotética que sobreviveu à faixa etária e foi exposta aos ASFRs atuais) em 2017 variou de 0,08 nascidos vivos (0,07–0,09) na Coreia do Sul para 2,4 nados vivos (2,2–2,6) no Níger, e a TFT acima dos 30 anos (TFO30; número de nados vivos esperados para uma mulher hipotética com idade entre 30 e 54 anos que sobreviveu à faixa etária e foi exposta aos ASFR actuais) variou entre um mínimo de 0,3 nados vivos (0,3–0,4) em Porto Rico e um máximo de 3,1 nados vivos (3,0–3,2) no Níger. O TFO30 foi superior ao TFU25 em 145 países e territórios em 2017. 33 países tiveram uma taxa de crescimento populacional negativa de 2010 a 2017, a maioria dos quais localizada na Europa Central, Oriental e Ocidental, enquanto taxas de crescimento populacional superiores a 2,0 % foram observadas em 33 dos 46 países da África Subsaariana. Em 2017, menos de 65% da população nacional estava em idade activa em 12 dos 34 países de rendimento elevado, e menos de 50% da população nacional estava em idade activa no Mali, no Chade e no Níger. Interpretação: As tendências populacionais criam dividendos demográficos e obstáculos (ou seja, benefícios e prejuízos económicos) que afectam as economias nacionais e determinam as necessidades de planeamento nacional. Embora as TFT estejam a diminuir, a população mundial continua a crescer à medida que a mortalidade diminui, com padrões diversos a nível nacional e entre grupos etários. Tanto quanto sabemos, este é o primeiro estudo a fornecer estimativas transparentes e replicáveis da população e da fertilidade, que podem ser utilizadas para informar a tomada de decisões e monitorizar o progresso. Financiamento: Fundação Bill e Melinda Gates.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilENF - DEPARTAMENTO DE NUTRIÇÃOMED - DEPARTAMENTO DE CLÍNICA MÉDICAThe LancetPopulaçãoCoeficiente de natalidadeFertilidadeCarga global da doençaRegistros de mortalidadePopulation and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017População e fertilidade por idade e sexo para 195 países e territórios, 1950–2017: uma análise sistemática para a Carga Global de Morbidade 2017info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32278-5/fulltext#supplementaryMaterialChristopher J. L. MurrayJemal AbdelaSuleman AtiqueMadhu Sudhan AtterayaMarcel AusloosEuripide F. G. A. AvokpahoAshish AwasthiBeatriz Paulina Ayala QuintanillaYohanes AyeleRakesh AyerTambe B. AyukPeter S. AzzopardiAhmed AbdelalimTesleem Kayode BabalolaArefeh BabazadehHamid BadaliAlaa BadawiAyele Geleto BaliMaciej BanachSuzanne Lyn Barker-colloTill Winfried BärnighausenLope H. BarreroHuda BasaleemOmar Abdel-RahmanQuique BassatArindam BasuBernhard T. BauneHabtamu Wondifraw BaynesEttore BeghiMasoud BehzadifarMeysam BehzadifarBayu Begashaw BekeleAbate Bekele BelachewAregawi Gebreyesus BelayAlireza AbdiEzra BelaySaba Abraham BelayYihalem Abebe BelayMichelle l. BellAminu K. BelloDerrick A. BennettIsabela M. BensenorGilles BergeronAdugnaw BerhaneAdam E. BermanNasrin AbdoliEduardo BernabeRobert S. BernsteinGregory J. BertolacciMircea BeuranSuraj BhattaraiSoumyadeep BhaumikZulfiqar A. BhuttaBelete BiadgoAli BijaniBoris BikbovIbrahim AbdollahpourNigus BililignMuhammad Shahdaat Bin SayeedSait Mentes BirlikCharles BirungiTuhin BiswasHailemichael BizunehArchie BleyerBerrak Bora BasaraCristina BosettiSoufiane BoufousRizwan Suliankatchi AbdulkaderOliver J. BradyNicola Luigi BragazziMichael BraininAlexandra BrazinovaNicholas J. K. BreitbordeHermann BrennerJerry D. BrewerPaul Svitil BriantGabrielle BrittonRoy BursteinHaftom Temesgen AbebeReinhard BusseZahid A. ButtLucero Cahuana-HurtadoIsmael R. Campos-NonatoJulio Cesar Campuzano RinconJorge CanoMate CarRosario CárdenasJuan J. CarreroFélix CarvalhoMolla AbebeCarlos a Castañeda-orjuelaJacqueline Castillo RivasFranz CastroFerrán Catalá-LópezAlanur ÇavlinEster CerinJulian ChalekHsing-yi ChangJung-chen ChangAparajita ChattopadhyayZegeye AbebePankaj ChaturvediPeggy Pei-chia ChiangKen Lee ChinVesper Hichilombwe ChisumpaAbdulaal ChitheerJee-young J. ChoiRajiv ChowdhuryDevasahayam J. ChristopherFlavia M. CicuttiniLiliana G. CiobanuCharlton S. K. H. 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