Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-7223 |
Resumo: | This thesis is developed in three independent essays, which address the following themes: ambiguity, inflation and institutions. In the first essay, we investigate the behaviour of ambiguity in the Brazilian economy, using the theoretical /empirical framework presented by Izhakian (2017). After constructing a series to capture aggregate ambiguity for the Brazilian economy, the impacts of ambiguity shocks on the domestic economic cycle are verified through VAR / SVAR. Adverse ambiguity shocks cause a sharp reduction in economic activity. In the second essay, we verified the asymmetric behaviour of the Brazilian aggregate supply curve through quantile regressions. The asymmetries result in differences in the dispersion of inflation distributions conditioned on inflationary expectations. Finally, in the third essay, we investigated the influence of regional historical features, reflected in the 1872 Brazilian census, on the current institutions of the same localities. Moreover, we also verified these influences on the income regional differences through two-stage quantile regressions. The results suggest that current institutional quality is strongly correlated with the characteristics observed in 1872, also affecting the current per capita income disparity. |
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Mauro Sayar Ferreirahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1737002737522248Lizia de FigueiredoGilberto de Assis LibânioRodrigo Jardim RaadMárcio Antônio SalvatoFábio Augusto Reis Gomeshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6671090487253697Michel Cândido de Souza2020-02-27T17:48:00Z2020-02-27T17:48:00Z2019-12-19http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-7223This thesis is developed in three independent essays, which address the following themes: ambiguity, inflation and institutions. In the first essay, we investigate the behaviour of ambiguity in the Brazilian economy, using the theoretical /empirical framework presented by Izhakian (2017). After constructing a series to capture aggregate ambiguity for the Brazilian economy, the impacts of ambiguity shocks on the domestic economic cycle are verified through VAR / SVAR. Adverse ambiguity shocks cause a sharp reduction in economic activity. In the second essay, we verified the asymmetric behaviour of the Brazilian aggregate supply curve through quantile regressions. The asymmetries result in differences in the dispersion of inflation distributions conditioned on inflationary expectations. Finally, in the third essay, we investigated the influence of regional historical features, reflected in the 1872 Brazilian census, on the current institutions of the same localities. Moreover, we also verified these influences on the income regional differences through two-stage quantile regressions. The results suggest that current institutional quality is strongly correlated with the characteristics observed in 1872, also affecting the current per capita income disparity.Esta tese é dividida em três ensaios independentes, os quais abordam os seguintes temas: ambiguidade, inflação e instituições. No primeiro ensaio, investigamos o comportamento da ambiguidade na economia brasileira, utilizando o arcabouço teórico/empírico apresentado por Izhakian(2017). Após construir uma série para captar ambiguidade agregada para a economia brasileira, são verificados os impactos de choques de ambiguidade no ciclo econômico doméstico através de VAR/SVAR. Choques adversos de ambiguidade causam forte redução na atividade econômica. No segundo ensaio, verificamos o comportamento assimétrico da curva de oferta agregada brasileira por meio de regressões quantílicas. As assimetrias resultam em diferenças na dispersão das distribuições da inflação condicionadas nas expectativas inflacionárias. Por fim, no terceiro ensaio, investigamos a influência de características históricas regionais, retratadas no Censo brasileiro de 1872, nas instituições atuais das mesmas localidades. Também verificamos essas influências no diferencial de renda das localidades estudadas através de regressões quantílicas em dois estágios. Os resultados sugerem que a qualidade institucional corrente é bastante correlacionada com as características observadas em 1872, afetando também a disparidade de renda per capita atual.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorengUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFMGBrasilFACE - FACULDADE DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAShttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAmbiguidadeInflaçãoBrasilEconomiaAmbiguityInflationInstitutionsEssays on ambiguity, inflation and institutionsEnsaios sobre ambiguidade, inflação e instituiçõesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGORIGINALTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdfTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdfapplication/pdf5258857https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/1/Tese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf8b31f5d6b5f8cf9b865c8aea6d3bbf3dMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8811https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/2/license_rdfcfd6801dba008cb6adbd9838b81582abMD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82119https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/3/license.txt34badce4be7e31e3adb4575ae96af679MD53TEXTTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf.txtTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain352373https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/4/Tese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf.txt02a2dbc8cb06f5396b4be4ee0bc31419MD541843/326162020-02-28 03:36:10.669oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2020-02-28T06:36:10Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions |
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Ensaios sobre ambiguidade, inflação e instituições |
title |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions |
spellingShingle |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions Michel Cândido de Souza Ambiguity Inflation Institutions Ambiguidade Inflação Brasil Economia |
title_short |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions |
title_full |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions |
title_fullStr |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions |
title_sort |
Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions |
author |
Michel Cândido de Souza |
author_facet |
Michel Cândido de Souza |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Mauro Sayar Ferreira |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1737002737522248 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Lizia de Figueiredo |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Gilberto de Assis Libânio |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Rodrigo Jardim Raad |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Márcio Antônio Salvato |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6671090487253697 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Michel Cândido de Souza |
contributor_str_mv |
Mauro Sayar Ferreira Lizia de Figueiredo Gilberto de Assis Libânio Rodrigo Jardim Raad Márcio Antônio Salvato Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Ambiguity Inflation Institutions |
topic |
Ambiguity Inflation Institutions Ambiguidade Inflação Brasil Economia |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Ambiguidade Inflação Brasil Economia |
description |
This thesis is developed in three independent essays, which address the following themes: ambiguity, inflation and institutions. In the first essay, we investigate the behaviour of ambiguity in the Brazilian economy, using the theoretical /empirical framework presented by Izhakian (2017). After constructing a series to capture aggregate ambiguity for the Brazilian economy, the impacts of ambiguity shocks on the domestic economic cycle are verified through VAR / SVAR. Adverse ambiguity shocks cause a sharp reduction in economic activity. In the second essay, we verified the asymmetric behaviour of the Brazilian aggregate supply curve through quantile regressions. The asymmetries result in differences in the dispersion of inflation distributions conditioned on inflationary expectations. Finally, in the third essay, we investigated the influence of regional historical features, reflected in the 1872 Brazilian census, on the current institutions of the same localities. Moreover, we also verified these influences on the income regional differences through two-stage quantile regressions. The results suggest that current institutional quality is strongly correlated with the characteristics observed in 1872, also affecting the current per capita income disparity. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-12-19 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2020-02-27T17:48:00Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2020-02-27T17:48:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616 |
dc.identifier.orcid.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-7223 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-7223 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFMG |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
FACE - FACULDADE DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMG instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) instacron:UFMG |
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UFMG |
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Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
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Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
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