Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Michel Cândido de Souza
Data de Publicação: 2019
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-7223
Resumo: This thesis is developed in three independent essays, which address the following themes: ambiguity, inflation and institutions. In the first essay, we investigate the behaviour of ambiguity in the Brazilian economy, using the theoretical /empirical framework presented by Izhakian (2017). After constructing a series to capture aggregate ambiguity for the Brazilian economy, the impacts of ambiguity shocks on the domestic economic cycle are verified through VAR / SVAR. Adverse ambiguity shocks cause a sharp reduction in economic activity. In the second essay, we verified the asymmetric behaviour of the Brazilian aggregate supply curve through quantile regressions. The asymmetries result in differences in the dispersion of inflation distributions conditioned on inflationary expectations. Finally, in the third essay, we investigated the influence of regional historical features, reflected in the 1872 Brazilian census, on the current institutions of the same localities. Moreover, we also verified these influences on the income regional differences through two-stage quantile regressions. The results suggest that current institutional quality is strongly correlated with the characteristics observed in 1872, also affecting the current per capita income disparity.
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spelling Mauro Sayar Ferreirahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1737002737522248Lizia de FigueiredoGilberto de Assis LibânioRodrigo Jardim RaadMárcio Antônio SalvatoFábio Augusto Reis Gomeshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6671090487253697Michel Cândido de Souza2020-02-27T17:48:00Z2020-02-27T17:48:00Z2019-12-19http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-7223This thesis is developed in three independent essays, which address the following themes: ambiguity, inflation and institutions. In the first essay, we investigate the behaviour of ambiguity in the Brazilian economy, using the theoretical /empirical framework presented by Izhakian (2017). After constructing a series to capture aggregate ambiguity for the Brazilian economy, the impacts of ambiguity shocks on the domestic economic cycle are verified through VAR / SVAR. Adverse ambiguity shocks cause a sharp reduction in economic activity. In the second essay, we verified the asymmetric behaviour of the Brazilian aggregate supply curve through quantile regressions. The asymmetries result in differences in the dispersion of inflation distributions conditioned on inflationary expectations. Finally, in the third essay, we investigated the influence of regional historical features, reflected in the 1872 Brazilian census, on the current institutions of the same localities. Moreover, we also verified these influences on the income regional differences through two-stage quantile regressions. The results suggest that current institutional quality is strongly correlated with the characteristics observed in 1872, also affecting the current per capita income disparity.Esta tese é dividida em três ensaios independentes, os quais abordam os seguintes temas: ambiguidade, inflação e instituições. No primeiro ensaio, investigamos o comportamento da ambiguidade na economia brasileira, utilizando o arcabouço teórico/empírico apresentado por Izhakian(2017). Após construir uma série para captar ambiguidade agregada para a economia brasileira, são verificados os impactos de choques de ambiguidade no ciclo econômico doméstico através de VAR/SVAR. Choques adversos de ambiguidade causam forte redução na atividade econômica. No segundo ensaio, verificamos o comportamento assimétrico da curva de oferta agregada brasileira por meio de regressões quantílicas. As assimetrias resultam em diferenças na dispersão das distribuições da inflação condicionadas nas expectativas inflacionárias. Por fim, no terceiro ensaio, investigamos a influência de características históricas regionais, retratadas no Censo brasileiro de 1872, nas instituições atuais das mesmas localidades. Também verificamos essas influências no diferencial de renda das localidades estudadas através de regressões quantílicas em dois estágios. Os resultados sugerem que a qualidade institucional corrente é bastante correlacionada com as características observadas em 1872, afetando também a disparidade de renda per capita atual.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorengUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFMGBrasilFACE - FACULDADE DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAShttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAmbiguidadeInflaçãoBrasilEconomiaAmbiguityInflationInstitutionsEssays on ambiguity, inflation and institutionsEnsaios sobre ambiguidade, inflação e instituiçõesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGORIGINALTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdfTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdfapplication/pdf5258857https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/1/Tese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf8b31f5d6b5f8cf9b865c8aea6d3bbf3dMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8811https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/2/license_rdfcfd6801dba008cb6adbd9838b81582abMD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82119https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/3/license.txt34badce4be7e31e3adb4575ae96af679MD53TEXTTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf.txtTese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain352373https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/32616/4/Tese_Michel_Candido_de_Souza_Final.pdf.txt02a2dbc8cb06f5396b4be4ee0bc31419MD541843/326162020-02-28 03:36:10.669oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2020-02-28T06:36:10Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Ensaios sobre ambiguidade, inflação e instituições
title Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
spellingShingle Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
Michel Cândido de Souza
Ambiguity
Inflation
Institutions
Ambiguidade
Inflação
Brasil
Economia
title_short Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
title_full Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
title_fullStr Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
title_full_unstemmed Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
title_sort Essays on ambiguity, inflation and institutions
author Michel Cândido de Souza
author_facet Michel Cândido de Souza
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Mauro Sayar Ferreira
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/1737002737522248
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv Lizia de Figueiredo
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Gilberto de Assis Libânio
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Rodrigo Jardim Raad
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv Márcio Antônio Salvato
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/6671090487253697
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Michel Cândido de Souza
contributor_str_mv Mauro Sayar Ferreira
Lizia de Figueiredo
Gilberto de Assis Libânio
Rodrigo Jardim Raad
Márcio Antônio Salvato
Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Ambiguity
Inflation
Institutions
topic Ambiguity
Inflation
Institutions
Ambiguidade
Inflação
Brasil
Economia
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Ambiguidade
Inflação
Brasil
Economia
description This thesis is developed in three independent essays, which address the following themes: ambiguity, inflation and institutions. In the first essay, we investigate the behaviour of ambiguity in the Brazilian economy, using the theoretical /empirical framework presented by Izhakian (2017). After constructing a series to capture aggregate ambiguity for the Brazilian economy, the impacts of ambiguity shocks on the domestic economic cycle are verified through VAR / SVAR. Adverse ambiguity shocks cause a sharp reduction in economic activity. In the second essay, we verified the asymmetric behaviour of the Brazilian aggregate supply curve through quantile regressions. The asymmetries result in differences in the dispersion of inflation distributions conditioned on inflationary expectations. Finally, in the third essay, we investigated the influence of regional historical features, reflected in the 1872 Brazilian census, on the current institutions of the same localities. Moreover, we also verified these influences on the income regional differences through two-stage quantile regressions. The results suggest that current institutional quality is strongly correlated with the characteristics observed in 1872, also affecting the current per capita income disparity.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2019-12-19
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2020-02-27T17:48:00Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2020-02-27T17:48:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616
dc.identifier.orcid.pt_BR.fl_str_mv https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-7223
url http://hdl.handle.net/1843/32616
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dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
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rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFMG
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv Brasil
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv FACE - FACULDADE DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMG
instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
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instname_str Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
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