Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1843/62558 |
Resumo: | Background: The epidemic curve has been obtained based on the 7-day moving average of the events. Although it facilitates the visualization of discrete variables, it does not allow the calculation of the absolute variation rate. Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. This study aimed to measure the diversity of epidemic curves and understand the importance of socioeconomic variables in the acceleration, peak cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazilian states. Methods: Epidemiological data for COVID-19 from federative units in Brazil were obtained from the Ministry of Health’s website from February 25 to July 11, 2020. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (www.ibge.gov.br). Using the polynomial interpolation methods, daily cases, deaths and acceleration were calculated. Moreover, the correlation coefficient between the epidemic curve data and socioeconomic data was determined. Results: The combination of daily data and case acceleration determined that Brazilian states were in different stages of the epidemic. Maximum case acceleration, peak of cases, maximum death acceleration, and peak of deaths were associated with the Gini index of the gross domestic product of Brazilian states and population density but did not correlate with the per capita gross domestic product of Brazilian states. Conclusions: Brazilian states showed heterogeneous data curves. Population density and socioeconomic inequality were correlated with a more rapid exponential growth in new cases and deaths |
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2024-01-10T21:59:40Z2024-01-10T21:59:40Z202255e0118-20211710.1590/0037-8682-0118-202116789849http://hdl.handle.net/1843/62558Background: The epidemic curve has been obtained based on the 7-day moving average of the events. Although it facilitates the visualization of discrete variables, it does not allow the calculation of the absolute variation rate. Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. This study aimed to measure the diversity of epidemic curves and understand the importance of socioeconomic variables in the acceleration, peak cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazilian states. Methods: Epidemiological data for COVID-19 from federative units in Brazil were obtained from the Ministry of Health’s website from February 25 to July 11, 2020. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (www.ibge.gov.br). Using the polynomial interpolation methods, daily cases, deaths and acceleration were calculated. Moreover, the correlation coefficient between the epidemic curve data and socioeconomic data was determined. Results: The combination of daily data and case acceleration determined that Brazilian states were in different stages of the epidemic. Maximum case acceleration, peak of cases, maximum death acceleration, and peak of deaths were associated with the Gini index of the gross domestic product of Brazilian states and population density but did not correlate with the per capita gross domestic product of Brazilian states. Conclusions: Brazilian states showed heterogeneous data curves. Population density and socioeconomic inequality were correlated with a more rapid exponential growth in new cases and deathsengUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilMED - DEPARTAMENTO DE CLÍNICA MÉDICARevista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina TropicalCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Spatial AnalysisAccelerationEpidemic curveCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Polynomial interpolationGrowth rateAccelerationCommunicable Disease ControlCovid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological studyinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0118-2021Airandes de Sousa PintoCarlos Alberto RodriguesCarlito Lopes Nascimento SobrinhoLivia Almeida da CruzEdval Gomes Dos Santos JúniorPaulo Cesar Mendes NunesMatheus Gomes Reis CostaManoel Otavio da Costa Rochaapplication/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/62558/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALCOVID-19 epidemic curve in Brazil pdfa.pdfCOVID-19 epidemic curve in Brazil pdfa.pdfapplication/pdf593260https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/62558/2/COVID-19%20epidemic%20curve%20in%20Brazil%20pdfa.pdfbd4b9337caacffb518224d5bf8984154MD521843/625582024-01-11 13:09:05.466oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2024-01-11T16:09:05Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study |
title |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study |
spellingShingle |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study Airandes de Sousa Pinto COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Polynomial interpolation Growth rate Acceleration Communicable Disease Control COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Spatial Analysis Acceleration Epidemic curve |
title_short |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study |
title_full |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study |
title_fullStr |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study |
title_sort |
Covid-19 epidemic curve in brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. an ecological study |
author |
Airandes de Sousa Pinto |
author_facet |
Airandes de Sousa Pinto Carlos Alberto Rodrigues Carlito Lopes Nascimento Sobrinho Livia Almeida da Cruz Edval Gomes Dos Santos Júnior Paulo Cesar Mendes Nunes Matheus Gomes Reis Costa Manoel Otavio da Costa Rocha |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Carlos Alberto Rodrigues Carlito Lopes Nascimento Sobrinho Livia Almeida da Cruz Edval Gomes Dos Santos Júnior Paulo Cesar Mendes Nunes Matheus Gomes Reis Costa Manoel Otavio da Costa Rocha |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Airandes de Sousa Pinto Carlos Alberto Rodrigues Carlito Lopes Nascimento Sobrinho Livia Almeida da Cruz Edval Gomes Dos Santos Júnior Paulo Cesar Mendes Nunes Matheus Gomes Reis Costa Manoel Otavio da Costa Rocha |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Polynomial interpolation Growth rate Acceleration Communicable Disease Control |
topic |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Polynomial interpolation Growth rate Acceleration Communicable Disease Control COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Spatial Analysis Acceleration Epidemic curve |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Spatial Analysis Acceleration Epidemic curve |
description |
Background: The epidemic curve has been obtained based on the 7-day moving average of the events. Although it facilitates the visualization of discrete variables, it does not allow the calculation of the absolute variation rate. Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. This study aimed to measure the diversity of epidemic curves and understand the importance of socioeconomic variables in the acceleration, peak cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazilian states. Methods: Epidemiological data for COVID-19 from federative units in Brazil were obtained from the Ministry of Health’s website from February 25 to July 11, 2020. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (www.ibge.gov.br). Using the polynomial interpolation methods, daily cases, deaths and acceleration were calculated. Moreover, the correlation coefficient between the epidemic curve data and socioeconomic data was determined. Results: The combination of daily data and case acceleration determined that Brazilian states were in different stages of the epidemic. Maximum case acceleration, peak of cases, maximum death acceleration, and peak of deaths were associated with the Gini index of the gross domestic product of Brazilian states and population density but did not correlate with the per capita gross domestic product of Brazilian states. Conclusions: Brazilian states showed heterogeneous data curves. Population density and socioeconomic inequality were correlated with a more rapid exponential growth in new cases and deaths |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2022 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2024-01-10T21:59:40Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2024-01-10T21:59:40Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/62558 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0037-8682-0118-2021 |
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
16789849 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/0037-8682-0118-2021 16789849 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/62558 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFMG |
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Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
MED - DEPARTAMENTO DE CLÍNICA MÉDICA |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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