Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.260 http://hdl.handle.net/1843/51878 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2330-5056 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-0538 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7277-9899 |
Resumo: | Environmental policy evaluation is crucial to determining if policy objectives were achieved. In most cases, some of the outcomes can be measured but a proper statistical analysis is difficult to achieve since the data may not represent a random sample (i.e., the data is biased), are not representative of the population or cannot be compared to a control group. This work adapts quasi-experimental statistical methods widely used in epidemiological studies that could be applied to land use policy evaluation in situations of relatively poor data. In order to test and develop this set of methods, we evaluated the effect of a land-use policy known as the rural environmental registry (CAR) on the reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. The random variable of interest is the number of deforested hectares in given private properties and the statistic of interest is the difference of the annual deforestation rate between the properties before and after the policy intervention. Since no formal statistical distribution properly fit the data, non-parametrical approaches such as Monte Carlo simulations and Bootstrap were used. Data from the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso and Pará were used, with different time periods and three rural property size classes. Results show that the properties inside the Rural Environmental Registry have reduced their deforestation rates in some property classes and time periods, but this effect has not been systematic across time and space indicating that the policy is only partially effective. We conclude that the proposed statistical methods can be useful in environmental policy evaluation in different contexts due to low demands in terms of data availability and statistical distribution assumptions. |
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2023-04-12T20:45:12Z2023-04-12T20:45:12Z201861117https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2602325-1026http://hdl.handle.net/1843/51878https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2330-5056https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-0538https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7277-9899Environmental policy evaluation is crucial to determining if policy objectives were achieved. In most cases, some of the outcomes can be measured but a proper statistical analysis is difficult to achieve since the data may not represent a random sample (i.e., the data is biased), are not representative of the population or cannot be compared to a control group. This work adapts quasi-experimental statistical methods widely used in epidemiological studies that could be applied to land use policy evaluation in situations of relatively poor data. In order to test and develop this set of methods, we evaluated the effect of a land-use policy known as the rural environmental registry (CAR) on the reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. The random variable of interest is the number of deforested hectares in given private properties and the statistic of interest is the difference of the annual deforestation rate between the properties before and after the policy intervention. Since no formal statistical distribution properly fit the data, non-parametrical approaches such as Monte Carlo simulations and Bootstrap were used. Data from the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso and Pará were used, with different time periods and three rural property size classes. Results show that the properties inside the Rural Environmental Registry have reduced their deforestation rates in some property classes and time periods, but this effect has not been systematic across time and space indicating that the policy is only partially effective. We conclude that the proposed statistical methods can be useful in environmental policy evaluation in different contexts due to low demands in terms of data availability and statistical distribution assumptions.A avaliação da política ambiental é crucial para determinar se os objetivos da política foram alcançados. Na maioria dos casos, alguns dos resultados podem ser medidos, mas uma análise estatística adequada é difícil de alcançar, uma vez que o os dados podem não representar uma amostra aleatória (ou seja, os dados são tendenciosos), não são representativos da população ou não podem ser comparados a um grupo de controle. Este trabalho adapta métodos estatísticos quase-experimentais amplamente usado em estudos epidemiológicos que poderiam ser aplicados na avaliação de políticas de uso da terra em situações de dados relativos pobres. Para testar e desenvolver este conjunto de métodos, avaliamos o efeito de uma política de uso da terra conhecido como Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) sobre a redução das taxas de desmatamento na floresta amazônica. A variável aleatória de interesse é o número de hectares desmatados em determinado propriedades e a estatística de interesse é a diferença da taxa anual de desmatamento entre propriedades antes e depois da intervenção política. Como nenhuma distribuição estatística formal se ajusta adequadamente para a obtenção dos dados, foram utilizadas abordagens não paramétricas como simulações de Monte Carlo e Bootstrap. Dados dos estados brasileiros de Mato Grosso e Pará foram utilizados, com diferentes períodos de tempo e três classes de tamanho de propriedade rural. Os resultados mostram que as propriedades inscritas no Cadastro Ambiental Rural reduziram suas taxas de desmatamento em algumas classes de propriedade e períodos de tempo, mas esse efeito não foi sistemático ao longo do tempo e do espaço, indicando que a política é apenas parcialmente eficaz. Concluímos que os métodos estatísticos propostos podem ser úteis na avaliação de políticas ambientais em diferentes contextos devido às baixas exigências em termos de disponibilidade de dados e pressupostos de distribuição estatística.CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoFAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas GeraisOutra AgênciaengUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA PRODUÇÃOElementa: science of the anthropoceneSolo - UsoDesmatamento - AmazôniaPolítica ambientalLand-use policySpatial statisticsMonte carlo bootstrap methodsEpidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazonAbordagens de inspiração epidemiológica para a avaliação de política de uso da terra: A influência do Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) sobre o desmatamento na Amazônia brasileirainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/doi/10.1525/elementa.260/112803/Epidemiologically-inspired-approaches-to-land-useMarcelo Azevedo CostaRaoni Guerra Lucas RajãoMarcelo de Castro Chaves StabileAndrea A. AzevedoJuliano Correaapplication/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/51878/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALEpidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy.pdfEpidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy.pdfapplication/pdf1649949https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/51878/2/Epidemiologically%20inspired%20approaches%20to%20land-use%20policy.pdfb2c4604dfec3124a64962dc9c8c3e18eMD521843/518782023-04-12 17:45:12.614oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-04-12T20:45:12Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon |
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Abordagens de inspiração epidemiológica para a avaliação de política de uso da terra: A influência do Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) sobre o desmatamento na Amazônia brasileira |
title |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon |
spellingShingle |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon Marcelo Azevedo Costa Land-use policy Spatial statistics Monte carlo bootstrap methods Solo - Uso Desmatamento - Amazônia Política ambiental |
title_short |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon |
title_full |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon |
title_fullStr |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon |
title_full_unstemmed |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon |
title_sort |
Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: the influence of the rural environmental registry (CAR) on deforestation in the brazilian amazon |
author |
Marcelo Azevedo Costa |
author_facet |
Marcelo Azevedo Costa Raoni Guerra Lucas Rajão Marcelo de Castro Chaves Stabile Andrea A. Azevedo Juliano Correa |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Raoni Guerra Lucas Rajão Marcelo de Castro Chaves Stabile Andrea A. Azevedo Juliano Correa |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Marcelo Azevedo Costa Raoni Guerra Lucas Rajão Marcelo de Castro Chaves Stabile Andrea A. Azevedo Juliano Correa |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Land-use policy Spatial statistics Monte carlo bootstrap methods |
topic |
Land-use policy Spatial statistics Monte carlo bootstrap methods Solo - Uso Desmatamento - Amazônia Política ambiental |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Solo - Uso Desmatamento - Amazônia Política ambiental |
description |
Environmental policy evaluation is crucial to determining if policy objectives were achieved. In most cases, some of the outcomes can be measured but a proper statistical analysis is difficult to achieve since the data may not represent a random sample (i.e., the data is biased), are not representative of the population or cannot be compared to a control group. This work adapts quasi-experimental statistical methods widely used in epidemiological studies that could be applied to land use policy evaluation in situations of relatively poor data. In order to test and develop this set of methods, we evaluated the effect of a land-use policy known as the rural environmental registry (CAR) on the reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. The random variable of interest is the number of deforested hectares in given private properties and the statistic of interest is the difference of the annual deforestation rate between the properties before and after the policy intervention. Since no formal statistical distribution properly fit the data, non-parametrical approaches such as Monte Carlo simulations and Bootstrap were used. Data from the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso and Pará were used, with different time periods and three rural property size classes. Results show that the properties inside the Rural Environmental Registry have reduced their deforestation rates in some property classes and time periods, but this effect has not been systematic across time and space indicating that the policy is only partially effective. We conclude that the proposed statistical methods can be useful in environmental policy evaluation in different contexts due to low demands in terms of data availability and statistical distribution assumptions. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-04-12T20:45:12Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-04-12T20:45:12Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/51878 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.260 |
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
2325-1026 |
dc.identifier.orcid.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2330-5056 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-0538 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7277-9899 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.260 http://hdl.handle.net/1843/51878 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2330-5056 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0330-0538 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7277-9899 |
identifier_str_mv |
2325-1026 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Elementa: science of the anthropocene |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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UFMG |
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Brasil |
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ENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA PRODUÇÃO |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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