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Edson Paulo Domingueshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2059703319050475Edson Paulo DominguesAline Souza MagalhãesDébora Freire CardosoKênia Barreiro de SouzaHéder Carlos de Oliveirahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2412019938676749Celso Bissoli Sessa2022-06-30T20:43:42Z2022-06-30T20:43:42Z2019-02-22http://hdl.handle.net/1843/42821As desigualdades regionais têm sido analisadas há décadas, embora às vezes encontrem pouca ressonância nos debates econômicos do país. Ao longo de mais de 500 anos, o Brasil assumiu uma “fisionomia territorial” marcada por desequilíbrios e assimetrias e, por isso, o debate regional sempre foi marcado pelas reivindicações das regiões periféricas por mais igualdade. Com o abandono do “Estado desenvolvimentista” assistiu-se ao acirramento das guerras fiscais e, ao mesmo tempo, à maior vinculação de algumas regiões diretamente ao mercado internacional, num movimento de “inserção competitiva”. Esse foi o caso do Espírito Santo, cuja trajetória histórica erigiu uma estrutura econômica pouco diversificada e regionalmente concentrada. Pelo lado das exportações, o estado assumiu o papel de grande plataforma de oferta de commodities. Pelo lado das importações, o estado se consolidou como um entreposto comercial via guerra fiscal. O objetivo desta tese é estimar os principais impactos econômicos e os reflexos regionais no Brasil e no Espírito Santo da “inserção competitiva” baseada em commodities frente à recente reversão do ciclo de preços internacionais e da guerra fiscal enquanto política de desenvolvimento regional. Em termos metodológicos, o uso do modelo TERM-ES (The Enormous Regional Model – Espírito Santo) traz importantes contribuições advindas da regionalização adotada numa estrutura inter-regional bottom-up. Sobre a “inserção competitiva”, os resultados mostram que para as regiões dependentes das commodities o principal efeito seria a redução do investimento e do crescimento em longo prazo, com efeitos reduzidos, e de caráter espúrio, sobre o problema das desigualdades regionais. A questão colocada seria o desafio da diversificação. Sobre a guerra fiscal, os impactos no Espírito Santo seriam significativos em termos de emprego, renda, investimento e produção, inclusive com alguns resultados positivos também em outras regiões, rompendo com a ideia que de os benefícios ficariam restritos apenas aos estados praticantes da guerra fiscal. Do ponto de vista tributário essa disputa pode ser considerada predatória, mas, ainda assim, asseguraria ganhos de bem-estar para a população regional (welfare-improving), ajudando a entender, em parte, a vitalidade dessas políticas. A “inserção competitiva” e a guerra fiscal tensionam as relações que integram o país. Ainda permanecem espaços para aprofundar as discussões e esta tese, acima de tudo, busca ressaltar a necessidade do resgate das determinações estruturais para se pensar a dimensão espacial do processo de desenvolvimento.Regional inequalities have been analyzed for decades, although they sometimes find little resonance in the country's economic debates. For more than 500 years, Brazil has assumed a "territorial physiognomy" marked by imbalances and asymmetries and, therefore, the regional debate has always been marked by the demands of peripheral regions for more equality. With the abandonment of the "developmentalist state", the fiscal wars were intensified and, at the same time, some regions were linked directly to the international market in a movement of "competitive insertion". This was the case of Espírito Santo, whose historical trajectory erected a little diversified and regionally concentrated economic structure. On the export side, the state has assumed the role of great commodity supply platform. On the import side, the state was consolidated as a commercial warehouse via the fiscal war. The objective of this thesis is to estimate the main economic impacts and the regional repercussions in Brazil and Espírito Santo of the "competitive insertion" based on commodities in the face of the recent reversal of the international price cycle and the fiscal war as a regional development policy. In methodological terms, the use of the TERM-ES model (The Enormous Regional Model - Espírito Santo) brings important contributions from the regionalization adopted in a bottom-up interregional structure. On "competitive insertion", the results show that for commodity-dependent regions the main effect would be the reduction of investment and long-term growth, with small and spurious effects on the problem of regional inequalities. The question posed would be the challenge of diversification. Regarding the fiscal war, the impacts on Espírito Santo would be significant in terms of employment, income, investment and production, including some positive results in other regions, breaking with the idea that the benefits would be restricted only to the states practicing the fiscal war. From the tax point of view this dispute can be considered predatory, but it would still guarantee welfare gains for the regional population (welfare-improving), helping to understand, in part, the vitality of these policies. "Competitive insertion" and the fiscal war stress the relations that integrate the country. There are still spaces to deepen the discussions and this thesis, above all, seeks to highlight the need to rescue structural determinations to think about the spatial dimension of the development process.porUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFMGBrasilFACE - FACULDADE DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICASEconomiaPolítica tributáriaComércio exteriorEconomia regionalEspírito SantoGuerra fiscalComércio exteriorEquilíbrio geral computávelComércio exterior, guerra fiscal e dinâmica regional assimétrica no Brasil e no Espírito Santoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGORIGINALTese (Celso Bissoli Sessa).pdfTese (Celso Bissoli Sessa).pdfapplication/pdf10854500https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/42821/1/Tese%20%28Celso%20Bissoli%20Sessa%29.pdf225dd680af6399b5fd2798f9a40c471fMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82118https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/42821/2/license.txtcda590c95a0b51b4d15f60c9642ca272MD521843/428212022-06-30 17:43:42.892oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2022-06-30T20:43:42Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
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