Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Ubirajara Oliveira
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Britaldo Soares-Filho, Mercedes Bustamante, Leticia Gomes, Jean P. Ometto, Raoni Guerra Lucas Rajão
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.735017
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59862
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837
Resumo: CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
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spelling 2023-10-23T21:09:23Z2023-10-23T21:09:23Z2022-03-28573501712https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.7350172624-893Xhttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/59862https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoMore and more, wildfires are raging in large parts of the world due to a warmer climate, more frequent and severe droughts, and continued land-use changes. In Brazil, the weakening of public environmental policies has further aggravated wildfires with widespread impacts across the country. Here, we investigated the determinants of the impact of fire in the Brazilian biomes using a dataset of burned areas between 2001 and 2019 to simulate its future impact under alternative policy and climate scenarios. We began by deriving a fire impact index using a principal component (PC) analysis comprising the variables: 1. fire intensity, 2. fire recurrence, 3. burned area size, 4. mean time interval between successive fires, and 5. predominance of fires in the dry season. We considered as High Impact Fires (HIF) those areas whose values of the first PC were above the 90th percentile. HIF occurred in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Pantanal, but not in the Atlantic Forest, Pampa, and Caatinga biomes. As the main drivers of HIF, our spatial autoregressive models (SAR) (Amazônia R2 = 0.66, Pantanal R2 = 0.86 and Cerrado R2 = 0.79) indicated the climate (Amazon, 25%, Pantanal, 53%, and Cerrado, 56%) together with land-use change (Amazon, 75%, Pantanal, 25%, and Cerrado, 38%). Most HIF occurred in native vegetation remnants (NVR) (55% in the Amazon, 86% in the Pantanal and 94% in the Cerrado), especially in places close to areas deforested over the last two decades. Only in Pantanal fuel loads (dry biomass) play a major role in HIF (22% of explanation). In the Cerrado, it only accounted for 4% of the observed variability and in the Amazon, it was not a significant factor. Over the analyzed period, HIF imposed a loss of 23%, on average, on the NDVI response of the native vegetation in the Amazon, 19% in the Cerrado and 16% in the Pantanal, thus indicating physiological stress. Simulations of future climate and land-use change pointed to a dramatic increase in HIF by 2050. Under the RCP4.5 and strong environmental governance scenario, HIF in the Cerrado would expand from the current 3% of the biome to 15%, from 7 to 8% in the Pantanal and from 0.7 to 1.2% in the Amazon. In addition, the impact of fire would intensify in 95% of the Cerrado, 97% of the Amazon and 74% of the Pantanal. Effective public and private policies will be vital to mitigate the growing threat of HIF. In this sense, our spatially explicit models can help direct prevention and firefighting programs.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA PRODUÇÃOENGENHARIA - ESCOLA DE ENGENHARIAFrontiers in Forests and Global ChangeBrasil - Indicadores ambientaisEcossistemasQueimadaBrasil - Indicadores ambientaisEcossistemasQueimadaDeterminants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.735017/fullUbirajara OliveiraBritaldo Soares-FilhoMercedes BustamanteLeticia GomesJean P. OmettoRaoni Guerra Lucas Rajãoapplication/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59862/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALDeterminants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes (1).pdfDeterminants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes (1).pdfapplication/pdf442004https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59862/2/Determinants%20of%20Fire%20Impact%20in%20the%20Brazilian%20Biomes%20%281%29.pdfd2f088572184ee0fe8940cf535566c5bMD521843/598622023-10-23 18:09:24.083oai:repositorio.ufmg.br:1843/59862TElDRU7vv71BIERFIERJU1RSSUJVSe+/ve+/vU8gTu+/vU8tRVhDTFVTSVZBIERPIFJFUE9TSVTvv71SSU8gSU5TVElUVUNJT05BTCBEQSBVRk1HCiAKCkNvbSBhIGFwcmVzZW50Ye+/ve+/vW8gZGVzdGEgbGljZW7vv71hLCB2b2Pvv70gKG8gYXV0b3IgKGVzKSBvdSBvIHRpdHVsYXIgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGRlIGF1dG9yKSBjb25jZWRlIGFvIFJlcG9zaXTvv71yaW8gSW5zdGl0dWNpb25hbCBkYSBVRk1HIChSSS1VRk1HKSBvIGRpcmVpdG8gbu+/vW8gZXhjbHVzaXZvIGUgaXJyZXZvZ++/vXZlbCBkZSByZXByb2R1emlyIGUvb3UgZGlzdHJpYnVpciBhIHN1YSBwdWJsaWNh77+977+9byAoaW5jbHVpbmRvIG8gcmVzdW1vKSBwb3IgdG9kbyBvIG11bmRvIG5vIGZvcm1hdG8gaW1wcmVzc28gZSBlbGV0cu+/vW5pY28gZSBlbSBxdWFscXVlciBtZWlvLCBpbmNsdWluZG8gb3MgZm9ybWF0b3Mg77+9dWRpbyBvdSB277+9ZGVvLgoKVm9j77+9IGRlY2xhcmEgcXVlIGNvbmhlY2UgYSBwb2zvv710aWNhIGRlIGNvcHlyaWdodCBkYSBlZGl0b3JhIGRvIHNldSBkb2N1bWVudG8gZSBxdWUgY29uaGVjZSBlIGFjZWl0YSBhcyBEaXJldHJpemVzIGRvIFJJLVVGTUcuCgpWb2Pvv70gY29uY29yZGEgcXVlIG8gUmVwb3NpdO+/vXJpbyBJbnN0aXR1Y2lvbmFsIGRhIFVGTUcgcG9kZSwgc2VtIGFsdGVyYXIgbyBjb250Ze+/vWRvLCB0cmFuc3BvciBhIHN1YSBwdWJsaWNh77+977+9byBwYXJhIHF1YWxxdWVyIG1laW8gb3UgZm9ybWF0byBwYXJhIGZpbnMgZGUgcHJlc2VydmHvv73vv71vLgoKVm9j77+9IHRhbWLvv71tIGNvbmNvcmRhIHF1ZSBvIFJlcG9zaXTvv71yaW8gSW5zdGl0dWNpb25hbCBkYSBVRk1HIHBvZGUgbWFudGVyIG1haXMgZGUgdW1hIGPvv71waWEgZGUgc3VhIHB1YmxpY2Hvv73vv71vIHBhcmEgZmlucyBkZSBzZWd1cmFu77+9YSwgYmFjay11cCBlIHByZXNlcnZh77+977+9by4KClZvY++/vSBkZWNsYXJhIHF1ZSBhIHN1YSBwdWJsaWNh77+977+9byDvv70gb3JpZ2luYWwgZSBxdWUgdm9j77+9IHRlbSBvIHBvZGVyIGRlIGNvbmNlZGVyIG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGNvbnRpZG9zIG5lc3RhIGxpY2Vu77+9YS4gVm9j77+9IHRhbWLvv71tIGRlY2xhcmEgcXVlIG8gZGVw77+9c2l0byBkZSBzdWEgcHVibGljYe+/ve+/vW8gbu+/vW8sIHF1ZSBzZWphIGRlIHNldSBjb25oZWNpbWVudG8sIGluZnJpbmdlIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIGRlIG5pbmd177+9bS4KCkNhc28gYSBzdWEgcHVibGljYe+/ve+/vW8gY29udGVuaGEgbWF0ZXJpYWwgcXVlIHZvY++/vSBu77+9byBwb3NzdWkgYSB0aXR1bGFyaWRhZGUgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzLCB2b2Pvv70gZGVjbGFyYSBxdWUgb2J0ZXZlIGEgcGVybWlzc++/vW8gaXJyZXN0cml0YSBkbyBkZXRlbnRvciBkb3MgZGlyZWl0b3MgYXV0b3JhaXMgcGFyYSBjb25jZWRlciBhbyBSZXBvc2l077+9cmlvIEluc3RpdHVjaW9uYWwgZGEgVUZNRyBvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBhcHJlc2VudGFkb3MgbmVzdGEgbGljZW7vv71hLCBlIHF1ZSBlc3NlIG1hdGVyaWFsIGRlIHByb3ByaWVkYWRlIGRlIHRlcmNlaXJvcyBlc3Tvv70gY2xhcmFtZW50ZSBpZGVudGlmaWNhZG8gZSByZWNvbmhlY2lkbyBubyB0ZXh0byBvdSBubyBjb250Ze+/vWRvIGRhIHB1YmxpY2Hvv73vv71vIG9yYSBkZXBvc2l0YWRhLgoKQ0FTTyBBIFBVQkxJQ0Hvv73vv71PIE9SQSBERVBPU0lUQURBIFRFTkhBIFNJRE8gUkVTVUxUQURPIERFIFVNIFBBVFJPQ++/vU5JTyBPVSBBUE9JTyBERSBVTUEgQUfvv71OQ0lBIERFIEZPTUVOVE8gT1UgT1VUUk8gT1JHQU5JU01PLCBWT0Pvv70gREVDTEFSQSBRVUUgUkVTUEVJVE9VIFRPRE9TIEUgUVVBSVNRVUVSIERJUkVJVE9TIERFIFJFVklT77+9TyBDT01PIFRBTULvv71NIEFTIERFTUFJUyBPQlJJR0Hvv73vv71FUyBFWElHSURBUyBQT1IgQ09OVFJBVE8gT1UgQUNPUkRPLgoKTyBSZXBvc2l077+9cmlvIEluc3RpdHVjaW9uYWwgZGEgVUZNRyBzZSBjb21wcm9tZXRlIGEgaWRlbnRpZmljYXIgY2xhcmFtZW50ZSBvIHNldSBub21lKHMpIG91IG8ocykgbm9tZXMocykgZG8ocykgZGV0ZW50b3IoZXMpIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBhdXRvcmFpcyBkYSBwdWJsaWNh77+977+9bywgZSBu77+9byBmYXLvv70gcXVhbHF1ZXIgYWx0ZXJh77+977+9bywgYWzvv71tIGRhcXVlbGFzIGNvbmNlZGlkYXMgcG9yIGVzdGEgbGljZW7vv71hLgo=Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-10-23T21:09:24Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
title Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
spellingShingle Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
Ubirajara Oliveira
Brasil - Indicadores ambientais
Ecossistemas
Queimada
Brasil - Indicadores ambientais
Ecossistemas
Queimada
title_short Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
title_full Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
title_fullStr Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
title_full_unstemmed Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
title_sort Determinants of Fire Impact in the Brazilian Biomes
author Ubirajara Oliveira
author_facet Ubirajara Oliveira
Britaldo Soares-Filho
Mercedes Bustamante
Leticia Gomes
Jean P. Ometto
Raoni Guerra Lucas Rajão
author_role author
author2 Britaldo Soares-Filho
Mercedes Bustamante
Leticia Gomes
Jean P. Ometto
Raoni Guerra Lucas Rajão
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Ubirajara Oliveira
Britaldo Soares-Filho
Mercedes Bustamante
Leticia Gomes
Jean P. Ometto
Raoni Guerra Lucas Rajão
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Brasil - Indicadores ambientais
Ecossistemas
Queimada
topic Brasil - Indicadores ambientais
Ecossistemas
Queimada
Brasil - Indicadores ambientais
Ecossistemas
Queimada
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Brasil - Indicadores ambientais
Ecossistemas
Queimada
description CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
publishDate 2022
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2022-03-28
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-10-23T21:09:23Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-10-23T21:09:23Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59862
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.735017
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 2624-893X
dc.identifier.orcid.pt_BR.fl_str_mv https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837
url https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.735017
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59862
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837
identifier_str_mv 2624-893X
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Frontiers in Forests and Global Change
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFMG
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv Brasil
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv ENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA PRODUÇÃO
ENGENHARIA - ESCOLA DE ENGENHARIA
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMG
instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron:UFMG
instname_str Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron_str UFMG
institution UFMG
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UFMG
collection Repositório Institucional da UFMG
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59862/1/License.txt
https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59862/2/Determinants%20of%20Fire%20Impact%20in%20the%20Brazilian%20Biomes%20%281%29.pdf
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