A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-AD5GK3 |
Resumo: | This work is anchored in Meteorology, Physical Geography and Epidemiology and was developed in stages that culminated in three articles, with specific objectives: (i) Article I - consisted of analysis of the most important aspects of descriptive epidemiology of leptospirosis and the timeline distribution form of the disease and its connexion with precipitation in Minas Gerais during the rainy months of Dec-Jan-Feb between 1998-2012; (ii) Article II - statistical approach applied to SACZ-ENSO associations that occurred in DJF. A behavioral analysis of both phenomena and their impact was made on positive anomalies (+) of rainfall that affected the total cases higher for 2002-2012; (iii) Article III - climatological analysis and dynamics of atmospheric variables that are important in maintaining SACZ and that caused the anomalies (+) of rainfall, which in turn favored the increase of cases in the state. Health data were obtained from DATASUS and atmospheric and oceanic variables are provided by CPTEC and CPC / NOAA. Analysis and more relevant results: 1 - counties with the largest populations the disease appeared endemic with seasonal epidemic fluctuations, in smaller municipalities the predominant occurrence was through outbreaks, with cases concentration in a few years with high incidence rates in rainy periods. The higher frequencies of the disease according to the meso/municipalities were located in NE-SW orientation, including part of central, eastern and southern Minas Gerais state. 2 - the highest frequency SACZ occurred in Dec-Jan (30 episodes / month), high frequency events (7 episodes / quarter) occurred in the summers of: 2006/2007, 2007/2008, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 and the average frequency (5-6 episodes) in: 2002/2003 (5), 2003/2004 (5), 2005-2006 (6), 2008-2009 (6), 2009-2010, (5) number of episodes in parentheses. The time series of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific region and the SACZ showed significantly correlated with "lag" of 1-2 months between sets. The correlation of the Atlantic SACZ was negative (-), ie; anomalously cold water are associated with the increase precipitation. 3 - in El Niño years, the SACZ is positioned further south of Minas Gerais, where it is observed more moisture flow of air and heat contrast on the southeastern sector of MG, favoring the heat convection that would generate local instabilities. In this situation, the relief region would have a significant contribution, since the topography favor the local circulation, which in turn, associate to the instabilities of SACZ, possibly contributing to generate and provide feedback mesoscale systems, causing precipitation abnormalities (+) and thus favoring the increase of disease cases in this sector. In La Niña years, the heat contrast region moves more to the state center and SACZ stands more continental, causing intense convective activity in the largely state area favoring the occurrence of floods, especially in located mesoregions in southeastern of Minas Gerais, justifying the number increase of disease cases observed in this sector in La Niña years. |
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A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012GeografiaPrecipitação (Meteorologia) Leptospirose Minas GeraisMinas Gerais ClimaThis work is anchored in Meteorology, Physical Geography and Epidemiology and was developed in stages that culminated in three articles, with specific objectives: (i) Article I - consisted of analysis of the most important aspects of descriptive epidemiology of leptospirosis and the timeline distribution form of the disease and its connexion with precipitation in Minas Gerais during the rainy months of Dec-Jan-Feb between 1998-2012; (ii) Article II - statistical approach applied to SACZ-ENSO associations that occurred in DJF. A behavioral analysis of both phenomena and their impact was made on positive anomalies (+) of rainfall that affected the total cases higher for 2002-2012; (iii) Article III - climatological analysis and dynamics of atmospheric variables that are important in maintaining SACZ and that caused the anomalies (+) of rainfall, which in turn favored the increase of cases in the state. Health data were obtained from DATASUS and atmospheric and oceanic variables are provided by CPTEC and CPC / NOAA. Analysis and more relevant results: 1 - counties with the largest populations the disease appeared endemic with seasonal epidemic fluctuations, in smaller municipalities the predominant occurrence was through outbreaks, with cases concentration in a few years with high incidence rates in rainy periods. The higher frequencies of the disease according to the meso/municipalities were located in NE-SW orientation, including part of central, eastern and southern Minas Gerais state. 2 - the highest frequency SACZ occurred in Dec-Jan (30 episodes / month), high frequency events (7 episodes / quarter) occurred in the summers of: 2006/2007, 2007/2008, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 and the average frequency (5-6 episodes) in: 2002/2003 (5), 2003/2004 (5), 2005-2006 (6), 2008-2009 (6), 2009-2010, (5) number of episodes in parentheses. The time series of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific region and the SACZ showed significantly correlated with "lag" of 1-2 months between sets. The correlation of the Atlantic SACZ was negative (-), ie; anomalously cold water are associated with the increase precipitation. 3 - in El Niño years, the SACZ is positioned further south of Minas Gerais, where it is observed more moisture flow of air and heat contrast on the southeastern sector of MG, favoring the heat convection that would generate local instabilities. In this situation, the relief region would have a significant contribution, since the topography favor the local circulation, which in turn, associate to the instabilities of SACZ, possibly contributing to generate and provide feedback mesoscale systems, causing precipitation abnormalities (+) and thus favoring the increase of disease cases in this sector. In La Niña years, the heat contrast region moves more to the state center and SACZ stands more continental, causing intense convective activity in the largely state area favoring the occurrence of floods, especially in located mesoregions in southeastern of Minas Gerais, justifying the number increase of disease cases observed in this sector in La Niña years.O presente trabalho está ancorado na Meteorologia, Geografia Física e na Epidemiologia e foi desenvolvido em etapas que culminaram em três artigos, com objetivos específicos: (i) Artigo I consistiu em análises dos aspectos mais importantes da epidemiologia descritiva da leptospirose humana e, a forma de distribuição espaço temporal da doença e sua relação com a precipitação em Minas Gerais nos meses chuvosos de Dez-Jan-Fev entre 1998-2012; (ii) Artigo II abordagem estatística aplicada às associações de ZCAS-ENOS que ocorreram em DJF. Foi feita uma análise do comportamento de ambos os fenômenos e suas repercussões sobre as anomalias positivas (+) de precipitação que tiveram influência nos maiores totais de casos entre 2002-2012; (iii) Artigo III análise climatológica e dinâmica das variáveis atmosféricas que são importantes na manutenção da ZCAS e que ocasionaram as anomalias (+) da precipitação, que por sua vez favoreceram o aumento de casos da doença no estado. Os dados de saúde foram obtidos através do DATASUS e as variáveis atmosféricas e oceânicas estão disponibilizadas pelo CPTEC e CPC/NOAA. Análises e resultados mais relevantes: 1 nos municípios com as maiores populações a doença se apresentou endêmica, com oscilações epidêmicas sazonais, nos municípios menores a ocorrência predominante se deu através de surtos epidêmicos, com concentração de casos em alguns anos com altas taxas de incidência nos períodos chuvosos. As maiores frequências da doença em função das mesorregiões/municípios estiveram localizadas com orientação de NE-SW, incluindo parte do centro, leste e sul do estado mineiro. 2 - as maiores frequências de ZCAS ocorreram em dez-jan (30 episódios/mês), os eventos de alta frequência (7 episódios/trimestre) ocorreram nos verões de: 2006/2007, 2007/2008, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 e os de frequência média (5-6 episódios) em: 2002/2003 (5), 2003/2004 (5), 2005/2006 (6), 2008/2009 (6), 2009/2010 (5), número de episódios entre parênteses. As séries temporais das anomalias de TSM na região do Pacífico Tropical e a ZCAS apresentaram correlação significativa com lag de 1-2 meses entre as séries. A correlação da ZCAS com o Atlântico foi negativa (-), ou seja; águas anomalamente frias estão associadas com o aumento da precipitação. 3 - em anos de El Niño, a ZCAS se posiciona mais ao sul de MG, onde se observa maior aporte de umidade do ar e contraste de calor sobre o setor sudeste de MG, favorecendo a convecção de calor que passaria a gerar instabilidades locais. Nesta situação, o relevo da região teria uma contribuição importante, visto que a topografia favoreceria a circulação local, que por sua vez, se associaria às instabilidades da ZCAS, contribuindo possivelmente para gerar e retroalimentar sistemas de mesoescala, ocasionando anomalias (+) de precipitação e consequentemente, favorecendo o aumento de casos da doença nesse setor. Em anos de La Niña, a área de contraste de calor se desloca mais ao centro do estado e a ZCAS se posiciona mais continental, causando intensa atividade convectiva em grande parte do estado favorecendo as ocorrências de inundações, especialmente nas mesorregiões situadas no sudeste de MG, justificando o aumento do número de casos da doença observado nesse setor em anos de La Niña.Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGRoberto Celio ValadaoGabriela Viviana MüllerMário Francisco Leal de QuadroMagda Luzimar de AbreuUlisses Eugenio Cavalcanti ConfalonieriFlavia Regina Lacerda Suassuna Dutra2019-08-09T19:54:01Z2019-08-09T19:54:01Z2016-03-02info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-AD5GK3info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessporreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMG2019-11-14T12:35:40Zoai:repositorio.ufmg.br:1843/BUBD-AD5GK3Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oairepositorio@ufmg.bropendoar:2019-11-14T12:35:40Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 |
title |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 |
spellingShingle |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 Flavia Regina Lacerda Suassuna Dutra Geografia Precipitação (Meteorologia) Leptospirose Minas Gerais Minas Gerais Clima |
title_short |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 |
title_full |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 |
title_fullStr |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 |
title_full_unstemmed |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 |
title_sort |
A influência da variabilidade da precipitação na distribuição dos casos de leptospirose em Minas Gerais entre 1998-2012 |
author |
Flavia Regina Lacerda Suassuna Dutra |
author_facet |
Flavia Regina Lacerda Suassuna Dutra |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Roberto Celio Valadao Gabriela Viviana Müller Mário Francisco Leal de Quadro Magda Luzimar de Abreu Ulisses Eugenio Cavalcanti Confalonieri |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Flavia Regina Lacerda Suassuna Dutra |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Geografia Precipitação (Meteorologia) Leptospirose Minas Gerais Minas Gerais Clima |
topic |
Geografia Precipitação (Meteorologia) Leptospirose Minas Gerais Minas Gerais Clima |
description |
This work is anchored in Meteorology, Physical Geography and Epidemiology and was developed in stages that culminated in three articles, with specific objectives: (i) Article I - consisted of analysis of the most important aspects of descriptive epidemiology of leptospirosis and the timeline distribution form of the disease and its connexion with precipitation in Minas Gerais during the rainy months of Dec-Jan-Feb between 1998-2012; (ii) Article II - statistical approach applied to SACZ-ENSO associations that occurred in DJF. A behavioral analysis of both phenomena and their impact was made on positive anomalies (+) of rainfall that affected the total cases higher for 2002-2012; (iii) Article III - climatological analysis and dynamics of atmospheric variables that are important in maintaining SACZ and that caused the anomalies (+) of rainfall, which in turn favored the increase of cases in the state. Health data were obtained from DATASUS and atmospheric and oceanic variables are provided by CPTEC and CPC / NOAA. Analysis and more relevant results: 1 - counties with the largest populations the disease appeared endemic with seasonal epidemic fluctuations, in smaller municipalities the predominant occurrence was through outbreaks, with cases concentration in a few years with high incidence rates in rainy periods. The higher frequencies of the disease according to the meso/municipalities were located in NE-SW orientation, including part of central, eastern and southern Minas Gerais state. 2 - the highest frequency SACZ occurred in Dec-Jan (30 episodes / month), high frequency events (7 episodes / quarter) occurred in the summers of: 2006/2007, 2007/2008, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 and the average frequency (5-6 episodes) in: 2002/2003 (5), 2003/2004 (5), 2005-2006 (6), 2008-2009 (6), 2009-2010, (5) number of episodes in parentheses. The time series of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific region and the SACZ showed significantly correlated with "lag" of 1-2 months between sets. The correlation of the Atlantic SACZ was negative (-), ie; anomalously cold water are associated with the increase precipitation. 3 - in El Niño years, the SACZ is positioned further south of Minas Gerais, where it is observed more moisture flow of air and heat contrast on the southeastern sector of MG, favoring the heat convection that would generate local instabilities. In this situation, the relief region would have a significant contribution, since the topography favor the local circulation, which in turn, associate to the instabilities of SACZ, possibly contributing to generate and provide feedback mesoscale systems, causing precipitation abnormalities (+) and thus favoring the increase of disease cases in this sector. In La Niña years, the heat contrast region moves more to the state center and SACZ stands more continental, causing intense convective activity in the largely state area favoring the occurrence of floods, especially in located mesoregions in southeastern of Minas Gerais, justifying the number increase of disease cases observed in this sector in La Niña years. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-03-02 2019-08-09T19:54:01Z 2019-08-09T19:54:01Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-AD5GK3 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-AD5GK3 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais UFMG |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais UFMG |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMG instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) instacron:UFMG |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) |
instacron_str |
UFMG |
institution |
UFMG |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
repositorio@ufmg.br |
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1816829748156825600 |