Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB |
Texto Completo: | https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/22705 |
Resumo: | This Thesis consists of two essays aimed at evaluating public policies implemented in the State of Paraíba in the last decade. Chapter 2, corresponding to the first essay, discusses the effects of investments in road infrastructure on the local development of Paraíba’s municipalities. For this purpose, the Difference-in Difference method reweighted by the weights of entropy balancing was employed. The database was obtained from the Departamento de Estradas de Rodagens (DER) of Paraíba, covering the period from 2011 to 2017. The results show the hypothesis of a positive relationship between investments in road infrastructure and economic growth cannot be rejected. The most significant impacts are observed on the employment balance of the benefited municipalities, especially in those that received paving works and were removed from isolation. In this case, the municipalities created, on average, approximately 87 new job openings in the formal job market. In the municipalities benefiting from restoration and supplementation, there was an increase in the employment balance of 82 and 85 vacancies, respectively. In addition, there was growth in real GDP (13%) and in GVA service sector (16%), both restricted to the municipalities that received supplementation works (duplication, viaducts, accesses, clovers, contours, among others). In turn, Chapter 3, referring to the second essay, aims to analyze the technical efficiency of the "Paraíba Unida pela Paz" program from a set of selected inputs and outputs. For this purpose, the MDEA-S method and the DBSCAN Machine Learning algorithm were adopted. The database used consists of the record of 429.699 police cases from the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, and were obtained from the Secretaria de Estado da Segurança e da Defesa Social do Estado da Paraíba (SESDSPB). The results show that about 40% of the units covered by the "Prêmio Paraíba Unida pela Paz" should not have received the bonus. When simulating the adjustment by the efficiency scores of the MDEA-S method, it was found that it would have been possible to have saved approximately 58% of the resources invested in the program between 2017 and 2019. Together, situations in which the policeman had received the premium, but should have not, with the situations in which he should have receive, but did not, inform the total error in the payment of the premium: 46,04% of the situations. Therefore, there are indications that the criteria employed by the program fail to distinguish fairly and technically who should be considered for the prize and who should not. Furthermore, the AISPs’ efficiency scores are very concentrated in the lower efficiency classes, mainly up to the value of 0,600. It was also evident that the efficiency of AISPs could be improved by reducing the number of police officers (20,43%) and the number of vehicles (26,27%). The results of the DBSCAN, on the other hand, allowed the identification of crimes hotspots that revealed that João Pessoa’s downtown region stands out for having a much higher rate of car theft and robbery than that registered in other locations. In addition, the night time (from 18:00 to 23:59) showed greater prominence, with 1.640 occurrences recorded at this time. The largest observed hotspot is located in the region comprised by the neighborhoods of Ernesto Geisel, Costa e Silva, Funcionários, Grotão and João Paulo II (228 observations or 17,56%), while the smallest is located in the Cabo Branco region (21 points or 1,28 %). |
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Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da ParaíbaPolíticas públicasEficiência técnicaInfraestrutura rodoviáriaCaminhos da ParaíbaParaíba unida pela pazPublic policyTechnical efficiencyRoad infrastructureCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIAThis Thesis consists of two essays aimed at evaluating public policies implemented in the State of Paraíba in the last decade. Chapter 2, corresponding to the first essay, discusses the effects of investments in road infrastructure on the local development of Paraíba’s municipalities. For this purpose, the Difference-in Difference method reweighted by the weights of entropy balancing was employed. The database was obtained from the Departamento de Estradas de Rodagens (DER) of Paraíba, covering the period from 2011 to 2017. The results show the hypothesis of a positive relationship between investments in road infrastructure and economic growth cannot be rejected. The most significant impacts are observed on the employment balance of the benefited municipalities, especially in those that received paving works and were removed from isolation. In this case, the municipalities created, on average, approximately 87 new job openings in the formal job market. In the municipalities benefiting from restoration and supplementation, there was an increase in the employment balance of 82 and 85 vacancies, respectively. In addition, there was growth in real GDP (13%) and in GVA service sector (16%), both restricted to the municipalities that received supplementation works (duplication, viaducts, accesses, clovers, contours, among others). In turn, Chapter 3, referring to the second essay, aims to analyze the technical efficiency of the "Paraíba Unida pela Paz" program from a set of selected inputs and outputs. For this purpose, the MDEA-S method and the DBSCAN Machine Learning algorithm were adopted. The database used consists of the record of 429.699 police cases from the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, and were obtained from the Secretaria de Estado da Segurança e da Defesa Social do Estado da Paraíba (SESDSPB). The results show that about 40% of the units covered by the "Prêmio Paraíba Unida pela Paz" should not have received the bonus. When simulating the adjustment by the efficiency scores of the MDEA-S method, it was found that it would have been possible to have saved approximately 58% of the resources invested in the program between 2017 and 2019. Together, situations in which the policeman had received the premium, but should have not, with the situations in which he should have receive, but did not, inform the total error in the payment of the premium: 46,04% of the situations. Therefore, there are indications that the criteria employed by the program fail to distinguish fairly and technically who should be considered for the prize and who should not. Furthermore, the AISPs’ efficiency scores are very concentrated in the lower efficiency classes, mainly up to the value of 0,600. It was also evident that the efficiency of AISPs could be improved by reducing the number of police officers (20,43%) and the number of vehicles (26,27%). The results of the DBSCAN, on the other hand, allowed the identification of crimes hotspots that revealed that João Pessoa’s downtown region stands out for having a much higher rate of car theft and robbery than that registered in other locations. In addition, the night time (from 18:00 to 23:59) showed greater prominence, with 1.640 occurrences recorded at this time. The largest observed hotspot is located in the region comprised by the neighborhoods of Ernesto Geisel, Costa e Silva, Funcionários, Grotão and João Paulo II (228 observations or 17,56%), while the smallest is located in the Cabo Branco region (21 points or 1,28 %).NenhumaEsta tese é composta por dois ensaios voltados à avaliação de políticas públicas implantadas no Estado da Paraíba na última década. O Capítulo 2, correspondente ao primeiro ensaio, discute os efeitos de investimentos em infraestrutura rodoviária sobre o desenvolvimento local. Para tanto, empregou-se o método de Diferenças em Diferenças reponderado pelos pesos do balanceamento por entropia. A base de dados foi obtida junto ao Departamento de Estradas de Rodagens (DER) da Paraíba, contemplando o período de 2011 a 2017. Os resultados encontrados mostram que a hipótese de relação positiva entre investimentos em infraestrutura rodoviária e crescimento econômico não pode ser rejeitada. Os impactos mais expressivos são observados no saldo de emprego dos municípios beneficiados, sobretudo naqueles que receberam obras de pavimentação e foram retirados do isolamento. Nesse caso, os municípios criaram, em média, aproximadamente 87 novas vagas de emprego no mercado de trabalho formal. Já nos municípios beneficiados com obras de restauração e suplementação, houve aumento no saldo de emprego em 82 e 85 vagas, respectivamente. No mais, verificou-se crescimento no PIB real (13%) e no VAB do setor de serviços (16%), ambos restritos aos municípios que receberam obras de suplementação (duplicação, viadutos, acessos, trevos, contornos, dentre outros). Por sua vez, o Capítulo 3, referente ao segundo ensaio, objetiva analisar a eficiência técnica do programa "Paraíba Unida pela Paz"a partir de um conjunto de inputs e outputs selecionados. Para este fim, utilizou-se o método MDEA-S e o algoritmo de Machine Learning DBSCAN. A base de dados empregada consiste no registro de 429.699 ocorrências policiais dos anos de 2017, 2018 e 2019, e foram obtidos junto à Secretaria de Estado da Segurança e da Defesa Social do Estado da Paraíba (SESDSPB). Os resultados mostram que cerca de 40% das unidades contempladas pelo "Prêmio Paraíba Unida pela Paz"não deveriam ter recebido a bonificação. Ao simular o ajuste pelos scores de eficiência do método MDEA-S, encontrou-se que seria possível ter economizado aproximadamente 58% dos recursos investidos no programa entre 2017 e 2019. Em conjunto, situações em que o policial recebeu o prêmio, mas não deveria, com as situações em que ele deveria receber, mas não recebeu, informam o erro total no pagamento do prêmio: 46,04% das situações. Logo, há indícios de que os critérios empregados pelo programa não conseguem distinguir de forma justa e técnica quem deve ser contemplado pelo prêmio e quem não deve. Ademais, os scores de eficiência das AISPs se mostram muito concentrados nas classes mais baixas de eficiência, principalmente até o valor de 0,600. Também ficou evidente que a eficiência para ser atingida sem folgas (slacks), seria necessário uma redução do efetivo policial (20,43%) e da quantidade de viaturas (26,27%). Já os resultados do DBSCAN permitiram a identificação de hotspots de crimes que revelaram que a região do Centro de João Pessoa se destaca por possuir uma taxa de furtos e roubos de automóvel bem mais elevada do que a registrada nas demais localidades. Além disso, o período noturno (das 18:00 às 23:59) mostrou maior destaque, com 1.640 ocorrências registradas neste horário. O maior hotspot observado encontra-se localizado na região compreendida pelos bairros do Ernesto Geisel, Costa e Silva, Funcionários, Grotão e João Paulo II (228 observações ou 17,56%), ao passo que o menor se situa na região do Bairro do Cabo Branco (21 pontos ou 1,28%).Universidade Federal da ParaíbaBrasilEconomiaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFPBAlmeida, Aléssio Tony Cavalcanti dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8915074296658510Anjos Junior, Otoniel Rodrigues dos2022-04-19T20:18:49Z2022-02-242022-04-19T20:18:49Z2021-02-25info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesishttps://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/22705porAttribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPBinstname:Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)instacron:UFPB2022-04-25T16:57:19Zoai:repositorio.ufpb.br:123456789/22705Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufpb.br/PUBhttp://tede.biblioteca.ufpb.br:8080/oai/requestdiretoria@ufpb.br|| diretoria@ufpb.bropendoar:2022-04-25T16:57:19Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB - Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba |
title |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba |
spellingShingle |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba Anjos Junior, Otoniel Rodrigues dos Políticas públicas Eficiência técnica Infraestrutura rodoviária Caminhos da Paraíba Paraíba unida pela paz Public policy Technical efficiency Road infrastructure CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba |
title_full |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba |
title_fullStr |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba |
title_sort |
Ensaios em avaliação de políticas públicas de infraestrutura rodoviária e segurança pública no estado da Paraíba |
author |
Anjos Junior, Otoniel Rodrigues dos |
author_facet |
Anjos Junior, Otoniel Rodrigues dos |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, Aléssio Tony Cavalcanti de http://lattes.cnpq.br/8915074296658510 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Anjos Junior, Otoniel Rodrigues dos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Políticas públicas Eficiência técnica Infraestrutura rodoviária Caminhos da Paraíba Paraíba unida pela paz Public policy Technical efficiency Road infrastructure CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
topic |
Políticas públicas Eficiência técnica Infraestrutura rodoviária Caminhos da Paraíba Paraíba unida pela paz Public policy Technical efficiency Road infrastructure CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
This Thesis consists of two essays aimed at evaluating public policies implemented in the State of Paraíba in the last decade. Chapter 2, corresponding to the first essay, discusses the effects of investments in road infrastructure on the local development of Paraíba’s municipalities. For this purpose, the Difference-in Difference method reweighted by the weights of entropy balancing was employed. The database was obtained from the Departamento de Estradas de Rodagens (DER) of Paraíba, covering the period from 2011 to 2017. The results show the hypothesis of a positive relationship between investments in road infrastructure and economic growth cannot be rejected. The most significant impacts are observed on the employment balance of the benefited municipalities, especially in those that received paving works and were removed from isolation. In this case, the municipalities created, on average, approximately 87 new job openings in the formal job market. In the municipalities benefiting from restoration and supplementation, there was an increase in the employment balance of 82 and 85 vacancies, respectively. In addition, there was growth in real GDP (13%) and in GVA service sector (16%), both restricted to the municipalities that received supplementation works (duplication, viaducts, accesses, clovers, contours, among others). In turn, Chapter 3, referring to the second essay, aims to analyze the technical efficiency of the "Paraíba Unida pela Paz" program from a set of selected inputs and outputs. For this purpose, the MDEA-S method and the DBSCAN Machine Learning algorithm were adopted. The database used consists of the record of 429.699 police cases from the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, and were obtained from the Secretaria de Estado da Segurança e da Defesa Social do Estado da Paraíba (SESDSPB). The results show that about 40% of the units covered by the "Prêmio Paraíba Unida pela Paz" should not have received the bonus. When simulating the adjustment by the efficiency scores of the MDEA-S method, it was found that it would have been possible to have saved approximately 58% of the resources invested in the program between 2017 and 2019. Together, situations in which the policeman had received the premium, but should have not, with the situations in which he should have receive, but did not, inform the total error in the payment of the premium: 46,04% of the situations. Therefore, there are indications that the criteria employed by the program fail to distinguish fairly and technically who should be considered for the prize and who should not. Furthermore, the AISPs’ efficiency scores are very concentrated in the lower efficiency classes, mainly up to the value of 0,600. It was also evident that the efficiency of AISPs could be improved by reducing the number of police officers (20,43%) and the number of vehicles (26,27%). The results of the DBSCAN, on the other hand, allowed the identification of crimes hotspots that revealed that João Pessoa’s downtown region stands out for having a much higher rate of car theft and robbery than that registered in other locations. In addition, the night time (from 18:00 to 23:59) showed greater prominence, with 1.640 occurrences recorded at this time. The largest observed hotspot is located in the region comprised by the neighborhoods of Ernesto Geisel, Costa e Silva, Funcionários, Grotão and João Paulo II (228 observations or 17,56%), while the smallest is located in the Cabo Branco region (21 points or 1,28 %). |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-02-25 2022-04-19T20:18:49Z 2022-02-24 2022-04-19T20:18:49Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/22705 |
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https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/22705 |
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por |
language |
por |
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Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/ |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Federal da Paraíba Brasil Economia Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia UFPB |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal da Paraíba Brasil Economia Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia UFPB |
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Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB) |
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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB |
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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB |
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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB - Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB) |
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diretoria@ufpb.br|| diretoria@ufpb.br |
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