THE INFLATIONARY DYNAMICS IN THE NEW CONSENSUS ECONOMICS: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

• Autor(a) principal: Busato, Maria Isabel
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Outros Autores: Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete, Cavalcanti, André
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/5156
• topic: New consensus. Inflation targeting. Phillips curve.; E31; E58; Novo consenso. Metas de inflação. Curva de Phillips.

The building of new consensus in the theoric arena of economics, such as the “new keynesian economics” or “new neoclassical synthesis”, serves nowadays as a theoric base to the adoption of macroeconomic policies, such as inflation targeting regimes. The article aims to present the central elements of a mainstream model, called “new consensus economics”, as well as make a critical analysis of its fundamental assumptions: I) the Phillips curve is estimated with the assumption of money neutrality in the long run; II) the trajectory of the potential product is independent of demand conditions; III) the supply shocks are expressed by the stochastic component. We will show that the inflationary dynamic – and the imminent hyperinflation risk – may be distinct of that one proposed by the new consensus, if its assumptions are broken.