BUSINESS CYCLES AND CRIMES AGAINST PROPERTY: A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Cristiano Aguiar de
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Outros Autores: Costa, Iuri Capa Verde
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/74222
• topic: Polo Naval; Crime; Quase experimento; Quebras Estruturais; C22; K14; R11; Naval pole; Crime; Quasi-experiment; Structural breaks; C22; K14; R11

This paper seeks evidence of the relationship between economic cycles andproperty crimes in a quasi-experiment generated by the shipbuilding industry installed inthe Brazilian city of Rio Grande (RS) from the year 2006. For this purpose, it uses structuraltime series models estimated by the Kalman Filter to decompose and to identify structuralbreaks in the thefts and robberies monthly registered in the municipality between January2002 and December 2015. The results indicate the existence of structural breaks both inthefts and robberies that may be associated with the changes generated in the economydue to the implementation of the shipbuilding industry. The paper provides evidence thatthe start of construction of the P-53 platform coincide with 80 monthly thefts while thatthe construction of the P-55 platform coincide with the reduction in 62 monthly robberiesregistered in the municipality. The paper concludes that there is evidence of a motivationeffect in which the improvement in the economic conditions of the municipality was able togenerate deterrence effects that reduced the property crimes.