IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos
Data de Publicação: 2015
Outros Autores: Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822
Resumo: The aim of this paper is to investigate the short-term effects on the Brazilian economy of IPI reduction in the automotive sector between 2008 and 2009. Using the input-output matrix analysis, the importance of the automotive sector is evident by the results of the linkages indices and employment multipliers. Considering the hypothesis that the IPI tax generated an increase in demand in the sector of 13.4 % during the year 2009, the results of the impact analysis indicate that the effects on the Brazilian economy would be an increase of more than R$32 billions in gross production, around R$10 billions in GDP and more than 211 thousand jobs. Thus, the results generate an ample prediction: the short-term responses to countercyclical fiscal policy operated by aggregate demand, is a Keynesian response, stabilize, which helped to mitigate the negative impacts of the financial crisis in the Brazilian economy.
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spelling IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009ANÁLISE DE IMPACTO DE CURTO PRAZO DA POLÍTICA FISCAL: REDUÇÃO DO IPI NO PERÍODO 2008-2009Fiscal policyAutomotive sectorInput-outputE62C67Política fiscalSetor automobilísticoInsumo-produtoE62C67The aim of this paper is to investigate the short-term effects on the Brazilian economy of IPI reduction in the automotive sector between 2008 and 2009. Using the input-output matrix analysis, the importance of the automotive sector is evident by the results of the linkages indices and employment multipliers. Considering the hypothesis that the IPI tax generated an increase in demand in the sector of 13.4 % during the year 2009, the results of the impact analysis indicate that the effects on the Brazilian economy would be an increase of more than R$32 billions in gross production, around R$10 billions in GDP and more than 211 thousand jobs. Thus, the results generate an ample prediction: the short-term responses to countercyclical fiscal policy operated by aggregate demand, is a Keynesian response, stabilize, which helped to mitigate the negative impacts of the financial crisis in the Brazilian economy.O objetivo deste artigo é investigar os efeitos de curto prazo na economia brasileira da redução do IPI no setor automobilístico entre 2008 e 2009. Utilizando o ferramental de matriz insumo-produto, a importância do setor automobilístico fica evidente por meio dos resultados dos índices de ligação e dos multiplicadores de emprego. Dada a hipótese de que a desoneração do IPI gerou um aumento na demanda do setor de 13,4% durante o ano de 2009, os resultados da análise de impacto indicam que os efeitos sobre a economia brasileira seriam de um aumento de mais de R$ 32 bilhões na produção bruta, quase R$ 10 bilhões no PIB e mais de 211 mil empregos. Assim, os resultados geram uma única e abrangente predição: as respostas de curto prazo à política fiscal contracíclica operam através da demanda agregada, ou seja, trata-se de uma resposta do tipo keynesiana, estabilizadora, que contribui para amenizar os impactos negativos da crise financeira na economia brasileira.UFRGS2015-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/4382210.22456/2176-5456.43822Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 64 (2015): setembro de 20152176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822/34905Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFernandes, Carlândia Brito SantosGuilhoto, Joaquim José Martins2015-09-01T23:17:54Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/43822Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2015-09-01T23:17:54Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
ANÁLISE DE IMPACTO DE CURTO PRAZO DA POLÍTICA FISCAL: REDUÇÃO DO IPI NO PERÍODO 2008-2009
title IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
spellingShingle IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos
Fiscal policy
Automotive sector
Input-output
E62
C67
Política fiscal
Setor automobilístico
Insumo-produto
E62
C67
title_short IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
title_full IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
title_fullStr IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
title_full_unstemmed IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
title_sort IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
author Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos
author_facet Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos
Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins
author_role author
author2 Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos
Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Fiscal policy
Automotive sector
Input-output
E62
C67
Política fiscal
Setor automobilístico
Insumo-produto
E62
C67
topic Fiscal policy
Automotive sector
Input-output
E62
C67
Política fiscal
Setor automobilístico
Insumo-produto
E62
C67
description The aim of this paper is to investigate the short-term effects on the Brazilian economy of IPI reduction in the automotive sector between 2008 and 2009. Using the input-output matrix analysis, the importance of the automotive sector is evident by the results of the linkages indices and employment multipliers. Considering the hypothesis that the IPI tax generated an increase in demand in the sector of 13.4 % during the year 2009, the results of the impact analysis indicate that the effects on the Brazilian economy would be an increase of more than R$32 billions in gross production, around R$10 billions in GDP and more than 211 thousand jobs. Thus, the results generate an ample prediction: the short-term responses to countercyclical fiscal policy operated by aggregate demand, is a Keynesian response, stabilize, which helped to mitigate the negative impacts of the financial crisis in the Brazilian economy.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-09-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822
10.22456/2176-5456.43822
url https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822
identifier_str_mv 10.22456/2176-5456.43822
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822/34905
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015
Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015
2176-5456
0102-9924
reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron:UFRGS
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron_str UFRGS
institution UFRGS
reponame_str Análise Econômica (Online)
collection Análise Econômica (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rae@ufrgs.br
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