IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
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Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822 |
Resumo: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the short-term effects on the Brazilian economy of IPI reduction in the automotive sector between 2008 and 2009. Using the input-output matrix analysis, the importance of the automotive sector is evident by the results of the linkages indices and employment multipliers. Considering the hypothesis that the IPI tax generated an increase in demand in the sector of 13.4 % during the year 2009, the results of the impact analysis indicate that the effects on the Brazilian economy would be an increase of more than R$32 billions in gross production, around R$10 billions in GDP and more than 211 thousand jobs. Thus, the results generate an ample prediction: the short-term responses to countercyclical fiscal policy operated by aggregate demand, is a Keynesian response, stabilize, which helped to mitigate the negative impacts of the financial crisis in the Brazilian economy. |
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IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009ANÁLISE DE IMPACTO DE CURTO PRAZO DA POLÍTICA FISCAL: REDUÇÃO DO IPI NO PERÍODO 2008-2009Fiscal policyAutomotive sectorInput-outputE62C67Política fiscalSetor automobilísticoInsumo-produtoE62C67The aim of this paper is to investigate the short-term effects on the Brazilian economy of IPI reduction in the automotive sector between 2008 and 2009. Using the input-output matrix analysis, the importance of the automotive sector is evident by the results of the linkages indices and employment multipliers. Considering the hypothesis that the IPI tax generated an increase in demand in the sector of 13.4 % during the year 2009, the results of the impact analysis indicate that the effects on the Brazilian economy would be an increase of more than R$32 billions in gross production, around R$10 billions in GDP and more than 211 thousand jobs. Thus, the results generate an ample prediction: the short-term responses to countercyclical fiscal policy operated by aggregate demand, is a Keynesian response, stabilize, which helped to mitigate the negative impacts of the financial crisis in the Brazilian economy.O objetivo deste artigo é investigar os efeitos de curto prazo na economia brasileira da redução do IPI no setor automobilístico entre 2008 e 2009. Utilizando o ferramental de matriz insumo-produto, a importância do setor automobilístico fica evidente por meio dos resultados dos índices de ligação e dos multiplicadores de emprego. Dada a hipótese de que a desoneração do IPI gerou um aumento na demanda do setor de 13,4% durante o ano de 2009, os resultados da análise de impacto indicam que os efeitos sobre a economia brasileira seriam de um aumento de mais de R$ 32 bilhões na produção bruta, quase R$ 10 bilhões no PIB e mais de 211 mil empregos. Assim, os resultados geram uma única e abrangente predição: as respostas de curto prazo à política fiscal contracíclica operam através da demanda agregada, ou seja, trata-se de uma resposta do tipo keynesiana, estabilizadora, que contribui para amenizar os impactos negativos da crise financeira na economia brasileira.UFRGS2015-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/4382210.22456/2176-5456.43822Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 64 (2015): setembro de 20152176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822/34905Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFernandes, Carlândia Brito SantosGuilhoto, Joaquim José Martins2015-09-01T23:17:54Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/43822Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2015-09-01T23:17:54Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 ANÁLISE DE IMPACTO DE CURTO PRAZO DA POLÍTICA FISCAL: REDUÇÃO DO IPI NO PERÍODO 2008-2009 |
title |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 |
spellingShingle |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos Fiscal policy Automotive sector Input-output E62 C67 Política fiscal Setor automobilístico Insumo-produto E62 C67 |
title_short |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 |
title_full |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 |
title_fullStr |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 |
title_full_unstemmed |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 |
title_sort |
IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM FISCAL POLICY: IPI REDUCTION 2008-2009 |
author |
Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos |
author_facet |
Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Fernandes, Carlândia Brito Santos Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Fiscal policy Automotive sector Input-output E62 C67 Política fiscal Setor automobilístico Insumo-produto E62 C67 |
topic |
Fiscal policy Automotive sector Input-output E62 C67 Política fiscal Setor automobilístico Insumo-produto E62 C67 |
description |
The aim of this paper is to investigate the short-term effects on the Brazilian economy of IPI reduction in the automotive sector between 2008 and 2009. Using the input-output matrix analysis, the importance of the automotive sector is evident by the results of the linkages indices and employment multipliers. Considering the hypothesis that the IPI tax generated an increase in demand in the sector of 13.4 % during the year 2009, the results of the impact analysis indicate that the effects on the Brazilian economy would be an increase of more than R$32 billions in gross production, around R$10 billions in GDP and more than 211 thousand jobs. Thus, the results generate an ample prediction: the short-term responses to countercyclical fiscal policy operated by aggregate demand, is a Keynesian response, stabilize, which helped to mitigate the negative impacts of the financial crisis in the Brazilian economy. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-09-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822 10.22456/2176-5456.43822 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.22456/2176-5456.43822 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43822/34905 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015 Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015 2176-5456 0102-9924 reponame:Análise Econômica (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
collection |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rae@ufrgs.br |
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1799766267473690624 |