Less active and more strategic: perspectives for Lula III's foreign policy: Perspectivas para a política externa de Lula III

• Autor(a) principal: Carvalho, Thales
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Conjuntura Austral
• Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/ConjunturaAustral/article/view/133369
• topic: Foreign Policy; Brazil; Punctuated Equilibrium; Lula; Política Externa; Equilíbrio pontuado; Lula.

The article contributes to the debate on the Brazilian Foreign Policy (BFP) during Lula da Silva's third presidency by answering: To what extent should we expect changes in the BFP in Lula's first term? I rely on the Punctuated Equilibrium theory by proposing that sharp policy changes are only expected if the new president proves able to win political battles against domestic and international actors. As a result, existing turbulences, such as the renewed great power competition and hard relations with the legislative branch, may lead Lula's policy to be less intense than in his first presidencies. I test this proposition using a case study by relying on qualitative and quantitative data on the Brazilian action during the first six months of this administration. Results show that agendas such as social rights, environment, regional integration, South-South cooperation, and some degree of pragmatism in the relations with great powers are back. However, the current context limits the country's room for action. As a result, the government now needs to choose the most strategic issues to spend its resources.