ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFRGS |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10183/245627 |
Resumo: | Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for inhospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and inhospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19. |
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Marcolino, Milena SorianoZiegelmann, Patricia KlarmannEtges, Ana Paula Beck da SilvaMartins, Raphael CastroCardoso, Ricardo BertoglioSantos, Kauane Aline Maciel dosFerreira, Maria Angelica PiresPolanczyk, Carisi Anne2022-07-28T04:46:15Z20211878-3511http://hdl.handle.net/10183/245627001146229Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for inhospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and inhospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.application/pdfengInternational journal of infectious diseases. Hamilton. Vol. 110 (2021), p. 281-308.COVID-19SARS-CoV-2Fatores de regulação miogênicaHospitalizaçãoMortalityPrognosisRisk factorsHospitalizationsScoreABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scoresEstrangeiroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRGSinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSTEXT001146229.pdf.txt001146229.pdf.txtExtracted Texttext/plain122407http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/245627/2/001146229.pdf.txtc64018a5763f3b76b45ae9dd9e03427bMD52ORIGINAL001146229.pdfTexto completo (inglês)application/pdf1747686http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/245627/1/001146229.pdf35157ffdc5ddf0adf10fa1cea4e938fbMD5110183/2456272022-07-29 04:51:21.528688oai:www.lume.ufrgs.br:10183/245627Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://lume.ufrgs.br/oai/requestopendoar:2022-07-29T07:51:21Repositório Institucional da UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
spellingShingle |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores Marcolino, Milena Soriano COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Fatores de regulação miogênica Hospitalização Mortality Prognosis Risk factors Hospitalizations Score |
title_short |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_full |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_fullStr |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_full_unstemmed |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_sort |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
author |
Marcolino, Milena Soriano |
author_facet |
Marcolino, Milena Soriano Ziegelmann, Patricia Klarmann Etges, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Martins, Raphael Castro Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio Santos, Kauane Aline Maciel dos Ferreira, Maria Angelica Pires Polanczyk, Carisi Anne |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ziegelmann, Patricia Klarmann Etges, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Martins, Raphael Castro Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio Santos, Kauane Aline Maciel dos Ferreira, Maria Angelica Pires Polanczyk, Carisi Anne |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Marcolino, Milena Soriano Ziegelmann, Patricia Klarmann Etges, Ana Paula Beck da Silva Martins, Raphael Castro Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio Santos, Kauane Aline Maciel dos Ferreira, Maria Angelica Pires Polanczyk, Carisi Anne |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Fatores de regulação miogênica Hospitalização |
topic |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Fatores de regulação miogênica Hospitalização Mortality Prognosis Risk factors Hospitalizations Score |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Mortality Prognosis Risk factors Hospitalizations Score |
description |
Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for inhospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and inhospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-28T04:46:15Z |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
Estrangeiro info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10183/245627 |
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1878-3511 |
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001146229 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10183/245627 |
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eng |
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eng |
dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
International journal of infectious diseases. Hamilton. Vol. 110 (2021), p. 281-308. |
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openAccess |
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