ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Marcolino, Milena Soriano
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Ziegelmann, Patricia Klarmann, Etges, Ana Paula Beck da Silva, Martins, Raphael Castro, Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio, Santos, Kauane Aline Maciel dos, Ferreira, Maria Angelica Pires, Polanczyk, Carisi Anne
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFRGS
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10183/245627
Resumo: Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for inhospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and inhospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.
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spelling Marcolino, Milena SorianoZiegelmann, Patricia KlarmannEtges, Ana Paula Beck da SilvaMartins, Raphael CastroCardoso, Ricardo BertoglioSantos, Kauane Aline Maciel dosFerreira, Maria Angelica PiresPolanczyk, Carisi Anne2022-07-28T04:46:15Z20211878-3511http://hdl.handle.net/10183/245627001146229Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for inhospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and inhospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.application/pdfengInternational journal of infectious diseases. Hamilton. Vol. 110 (2021), p. 281-308.COVID-19SARS-CoV-2Fatores de regulação miogênicaHospitalizaçãoMortalityPrognosisRisk factorsHospitalizationsScoreABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scoresEstrangeiroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRGSinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSTEXT001146229.pdf.txt001146229.pdf.txtExtracted Texttext/plain122407http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/245627/2/001146229.pdf.txtc64018a5763f3b76b45ae9dd9e03427bMD52ORIGINAL001146229.pdfTexto completo (inglês)application/pdf1747686http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/245627/1/001146229.pdf35157ffdc5ddf0adf10fa1cea4e938fbMD5110183/2456272022-07-29 04:51:21.528688oai:www.lume.ufrgs.br:10183/245627Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://lume.ufrgs.br/oai/requestopendoar:2022-07-29T07:51:21Repositório Institucional da UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
title ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
spellingShingle ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
Marcolino, Milena Soriano
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Fatores de regulação miogênica
Hospitalização
Mortality
Prognosis
Risk factors
Hospitalizations
Score
title_short ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
title_full ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
title_fullStr ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
title_full_unstemmed ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
title_sort ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
author Marcolino, Milena Soriano
author_facet Marcolino, Milena Soriano
Ziegelmann, Patricia Klarmann
Etges, Ana Paula Beck da Silva
Martins, Raphael Castro
Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio
Santos, Kauane Aline Maciel dos
Ferreira, Maria Angelica Pires
Polanczyk, Carisi Anne
author_role author
author2 Ziegelmann, Patricia Klarmann
Etges, Ana Paula Beck da Silva
Martins, Raphael Castro
Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio
Santos, Kauane Aline Maciel dos
Ferreira, Maria Angelica Pires
Polanczyk, Carisi Anne
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Marcolino, Milena Soriano
Ziegelmann, Patricia Klarmann
Etges, Ana Paula Beck da Silva
Martins, Raphael Castro
Cardoso, Ricardo Bertoglio
Santos, Kauane Aline Maciel dos
Ferreira, Maria Angelica Pires
Polanczyk, Carisi Anne
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Fatores de regulação miogênica
Hospitalização
topic COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Fatores de regulação miogênica
Hospitalização
Mortality
Prognosis
Risk factors
Hospitalizations
Score
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Mortality
Prognosis
Risk factors
Hospitalizations
Score
description Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for inhospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and inhospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2022-07-28T04:46:15Z
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dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1878-3511
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url http://hdl.handle.net/10183/245627
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
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dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv International journal of infectious diseases. Hamilton. Vol. 110 (2021), p. 281-308.
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