ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/229327 |
Resumo: | Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19. |
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Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
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spelling |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scoresCOVID-19HospitalizationsMortalityPrognosisRisk factorsSARS-CoV-2ScoreObjectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Department of Internal Medicine Medical School Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisTelehealth Center University Hospital Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisInstitute for Health Technology Assessment IATS/ CNPq)., Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359. Prédio 21 | Sala 507Department of Statistics Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisCenter for Research and Graduate Studies in Business Administration Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisUniversidade Federal de São João del-ReiInfectious Diseases Department Vall d'Hebron University Hospita Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor Grupo Hospitalar ConceiçãoPontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul RGS)Hospital São Lucas PUCRSRede Mater Dei de SaúdeHospital Márcio CunhaUniversidade do Sul de Santa Catarina UNISULDissertare Scientific AdviceSOS Cardio HospitalInternal Medicine Department University Hospital Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisFaculdade de Medicina de Botucatu Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita FilhoHospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de BotucatuUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulHospital Bruno BornResearch Center of Vale do Taquari.Hospital Mãe de DeusHospital Universitário de CanoasMucuri Medical School FAMMUC Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri – UFVJMHospital Santa RosaliaHospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de CastroHospital Moinhos de VentoHospital Unimed BHHospital Risoleta Tolentino NevesPost-graduation Center Medical School Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisHospital Metropolitano Odilon BehrensHospital Eduardo de MenezesUniversidade FUMECHospital Julia KubitschekHospital Universitário de Santa MariaDepartamento de Medicina Interna Universidade Federal de Santa MariaHospital São João de DeusHospital Regional Antônio DiasFaculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas GeraisHospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulFaculdade de Ciências Humanas de CurveloHospital João XXIII Av. Professor Alfredo BalenaHospital Santo AntônioHospital Universitário Ciências MédicasVall d'Hebron University Hospital PROSICS BarcelonaInstituto René Rachou-FIOCRUZ Minas.Universidade Federal da Fronteira SulHospital Regional do OestePontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas GeraisHospital TacchiniCentro Universitário de Patos de Minas. RPatos de MinasHospital SemperHospital Santa CruzUniversidade de Santa CruzFundação Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais – FHEMIG.Universidade Federal de Ouro PretoHospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de PernambucoUniversidade Federal de Pernambuco Centro de Ciências MédicasCentro Universitário de Belo Horizonte UniBH)Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam Department of CardiologyFaculdade de Medicina de Botucatu Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita FilhoHospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de BotucatuUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)Institute for Health Technology Assessment IATS/ CNPq).Universidade Federal de São João del-ReiUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaGrupo Hospitalar ConceiçãoPontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul RGS)Hospital São Lucas PUCRSRede Mater Dei de SaúdeHospital Márcio CunhaUniversidade do Sul de Santa Catarina UNISULDissertare Scientific AdviceSOS Cardio HospitalUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulHospital Bruno BornResearch Center of Vale do Taquari.Hospital Mãe de DeusHospital Universitário de CanoasUniversidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)Hospital Santa RosaliaHospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de CastroHospital Moinhos de VentoHospital Unimed BHHospital Risoleta Tolentino NevesHospital Metropolitano Odilon BehrensHospital Eduardo de MenezesUniversidade FUMECHospital Julia KubitschekHospital Universitário de Santa MariaUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaHospital São João de DeusHospital Regional Antônio DiasFaculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas GeraisFaculdade de Ciências Humanas de CurveloAv. Professor Alfredo BalenaHospital Santo AntônioHospital Universitário Ciências MédicasPROSICS BarcelonaInstituto René Rachou-FIOCRUZ Minas.Universidade Federal da Fronteira SulHospital Regional do OestePontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas GeraisHospital TacchiniCentro Universitário de Patos de Minas. RPatos de MinasHospital SemperHospital Santa CruzUniversidade de Santa CruzFundação Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais – FHEMIG.Universidade Federal de Ouro PretoUniversidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)Centro Universitário de Belo Horizonte UniBH)University Medical Center RotterdamMarcolino, Milena S.Pires, Magda C.Ramos, Lucas Emanuel F.Silva, Rafael T.Oliveira, Luana M.Carvalho, Rafael L.R.Mourato, Rodolfo Lucas S.Sánchez-Montalvá, AdriánRaventós, BertaAnschau, FernandoChatkin, José MiguelNogueira, Matheus C.A.Guimarães-Júnior, Milton H.Vietta, Giovanna G.Duani, HelenaPonce, Daniela [UNESP]Ziegelmann, Patricia K.Castro, Luís C.Ruschel, Karen B.Cimini, Christiane C.R.Francisco, Saionara C.Floriani, Maiara A.Nascimento, Guilherme F.Farace, Bárbara L.Monteiro, Luanna S.Souza-Silva, Maira V.R.Sales, Thais L.S.Martins, Karina Paula M.P.Borges do Nascimento, Israel J.Fereguetti, Tatiani O.Ferrara, Daniel T.M.O.Botoni, Fernando A.Etges, Ana Paula B.S.Schwarzbold, Alexandre V.Maurílio, Amanda O.Scotton, Ana Luiza B.A.Weber, André P.Costa, André S.M.Glaeser, Andressa B.Madureira, Angélica Aparecida C.Bhering, Angelinda R.de Castro, Bruno Mateusda Silva, Carla Thais C.A.Ramos, Carolina M.Gomes, Caroline D.de Carvalho, Cíntia A.Silveira, Daniel V.Cezar, EdilsonPereira, Elayne C.Kroger, Emanuele Marianne S.Vallt, Felipe B.Lucas, Fernanda B.Aranha, Fernando G.Bartolazzi, FredericoCrestani, Gabriela P.Bastos, Gisele A.N.Madeira, Glícia Cristina de C.Noal, Helena CarolinaVianna, Heloisa R.Guimarães, Henrique C.Gomes, Isabela M.Molina, IsraelBatista, Joanna d'Arc L.de Alvarenga, Joice C.Guimarães, Júlia D.S.S.de Morais, Júlia D.P.Rugolo, Juliana M. [UNESP]Pontes, Karen Cristina J.R.dos Santos, Kauane Aline M.de Oliveira, Leonardo S.Pinheiro, Lílian S.Pacheco, Liliane S.Sousa, Lucas de D.Couto, Luciana S.F.Kopittke, Lucianede Moura, Luis Cesar S.Santos, Luisa Elem A.Cabral, Máderson A.S.Souza, Maíra D.Tofani, Marcela G.T.Carneiro, MarceloFerreira, Maria Angélica P.Bicalho, Maria Aparecida C.Lima, Maria Clara P.B.Godoy, Mariana F.Cardoso, Marilia M.A. [UNESP]Figueiredo, Meire P.Sampaio, Natália C.S.Rangel, Natália L.Crespo, Natália T.de Oliveira, Neimy R.Assaf, Pedro L.Martelli, Petrônio José de L.Almeida, Rafaela S.C.Martins, Raphael C.Lutkmeier, RaquelValacio, Reginaldo AparecidoFinger, Renan G.Cardoso, Ricardo B.Pozza, RobertaCampos, Roberta X.Menezes, Rochele M.de Abreu, Roger M.Silva, Rufino de F.Guimarães, Silvana M.M.Araújo, Silvia F.Pereira, Susany AnastáciaOliveira, Talita F.Kurtz, Tatianade Oliveira, Thainara C.Araújo, Thaíza Simônia M.A.Diniz, Thulio Henrique O.dos Santos, Veridiana B.Gomes, Virginia Mara R.do Vale, Vitor Augusto L.Ramires, Yuri C.Boersma, EricPolanczyk, Carisi A.2022-04-29T08:31:56Z2022-04-29T08:31:56Z2021-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article281-308http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049International Journal of Infectious Diseases, v. 110, p. 281-308.1878-35111201-9712http://hdl.handle.net/11449/22932710.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.0492-s2.0-85112538955Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengInternational Journal of Infectious Diseasesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-09-30T17:35:03Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/229327Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestrepositoriounesp@unesp.bropendoar:29462024-09-30T17:35:03Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
spellingShingle |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores Marcolino, Milena S. COVID-19 Hospitalizations Mortality Prognosis Risk factors SARS-CoV-2 Score |
title_short |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_full |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_fullStr |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_full_unstemmed |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
title_sort |
ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
author |
Marcolino, Milena S. |
author_facet |
Marcolino, Milena S. Pires, Magda C. Ramos, Lucas Emanuel F. Silva, Rafael T. Oliveira, Luana M. Carvalho, Rafael L.R. Mourato, Rodolfo Lucas S. Sánchez-Montalvá, Adrián Raventós, Berta Anschau, Fernando Chatkin, José Miguel Nogueira, Matheus C.A. Guimarães-Júnior, Milton H. Vietta, Giovanna G. Duani, Helena Ponce, Daniela [UNESP] Ziegelmann, Patricia K. Castro, Luís C. Ruschel, Karen B. Cimini, Christiane C.R. Francisco, Saionara C. Floriani, Maiara A. Nascimento, Guilherme F. Farace, Bárbara L. Monteiro, Luanna S. Souza-Silva, Maira V.R. Sales, Thais L.S. Martins, Karina Paula M.P. Borges do Nascimento, Israel J. Fereguetti, Tatiani O. Ferrara, Daniel T.M.O. Botoni, Fernando A. Etges, Ana Paula B.S. Schwarzbold, Alexandre V. Maurílio, Amanda O. Scotton, Ana Luiza B.A. Weber, André P. Costa, André S.M. Glaeser, Andressa B. Madureira, Angélica Aparecida C. Bhering, Angelinda R. de Castro, Bruno Mateus da Silva, Carla Thais C.A. Ramos, Carolina M. Gomes, Caroline D. de Carvalho, Cíntia A. Silveira, Daniel V. Cezar, Edilson Pereira, Elayne C. Kroger, Emanuele Marianne S. Vallt, Felipe B. Lucas, Fernanda B. Aranha, Fernando G. Bartolazzi, Frederico Crestani, Gabriela P. Bastos, Gisele A.N. Madeira, Glícia Cristina de C. Noal, Helena Carolina Vianna, Heloisa R. Guimarães, Henrique C. Gomes, Isabela M. Molina, Israel Batista, Joanna d'Arc L. de Alvarenga, Joice C. Guimarães, Júlia D.S.S. de Morais, Júlia D.P. Rugolo, Juliana M. [UNESP] Pontes, Karen Cristina J.R. dos Santos, Kauane Aline M. de Oliveira, Leonardo S. Pinheiro, Lílian S. Pacheco, Liliane S. Sousa, Lucas de D. Couto, Luciana S.F. Kopittke, Luciane de Moura, Luis Cesar S. Santos, Luisa Elem A. Cabral, Máderson A.S. Souza, Maíra D. Tofani, Marcela G.T. Carneiro, Marcelo Ferreira, Maria Angélica P. Bicalho, Maria Aparecida C. Lima, Maria Clara P.B. Godoy, Mariana F. Cardoso, Marilia M.A. [UNESP] Figueiredo, Meire P. Sampaio, Natália C.S. Rangel, Natália L. Crespo, Natália T. de Oliveira, Neimy R. Assaf, Pedro L. Martelli, Petrônio José de L. Almeida, Rafaela S.C. Martins, Raphael C. Lutkmeier, Raquel Valacio, Reginaldo Aparecido Finger, Renan G. Cardoso, Ricardo B. Pozza, Roberta Campos, Roberta X. Menezes, Rochele M. de Abreu, Roger M. Silva, Rufino de F. Guimarães, Silvana M.M. Araújo, Silvia F. Pereira, Susany Anastácia Oliveira, Talita F. Kurtz, Tatiana de Oliveira, Thainara C. Araújo, Thaíza Simônia M.A. Diniz, Thulio Henrique O. dos Santos, Veridiana B. Gomes, Virginia Mara R. do Vale, Vitor Augusto L. Ramires, Yuri C. Boersma, Eric Polanczyk, Carisi A. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Pires, Magda C. Ramos, Lucas Emanuel F. Silva, Rafael T. Oliveira, Luana M. Carvalho, Rafael L.R. Mourato, Rodolfo Lucas S. Sánchez-Montalvá, Adrián Raventós, Berta Anschau, Fernando Chatkin, José Miguel Nogueira, Matheus C.A. Guimarães-Júnior, Milton H. Vietta, Giovanna G. Duani, Helena Ponce, Daniela [UNESP] Ziegelmann, Patricia K. Castro, Luís C. Ruschel, Karen B. Cimini, Christiane C.R. Francisco, Saionara C. Floriani, Maiara A. Nascimento, Guilherme F. Farace, Bárbara L. Monteiro, Luanna S. Souza-Silva, Maira V.R. Sales, Thais L.S. Martins, Karina Paula M.P. Borges do Nascimento, Israel J. Fereguetti, Tatiani O. Ferrara, Daniel T.M.O. Botoni, Fernando A. Etges, Ana Paula B.S. Schwarzbold, Alexandre V. Maurílio, Amanda O. Scotton, Ana Luiza B.A. Weber, André P. Costa, André S.M. Glaeser, Andressa B. Madureira, Angélica Aparecida C. Bhering, Angelinda R. de Castro, Bruno Mateus da Silva, Carla Thais C.A. Ramos, Carolina M. Gomes, Caroline D. de Carvalho, Cíntia A. Silveira, Daniel V. Cezar, Edilson Pereira, Elayne C. Kroger, Emanuele Marianne S. Vallt, Felipe B. Lucas, Fernanda B. Aranha, Fernando G. Bartolazzi, Frederico Crestani, Gabriela P. Bastos, Gisele A.N. Madeira, Glícia Cristina de C. Noal, Helena Carolina Vianna, Heloisa R. Guimarães, Henrique C. Gomes, Isabela M. Molina, Israel Batista, Joanna d'Arc L. de Alvarenga, Joice C. Guimarães, Júlia D.S.S. de Morais, Júlia D.P. Rugolo, Juliana M. [UNESP] Pontes, Karen Cristina J.R. dos Santos, Kauane Aline M. de Oliveira, Leonardo S. Pinheiro, Lílian S. Pacheco, Liliane S. Sousa, Lucas de D. Couto, Luciana S.F. Kopittke, Luciane de Moura, Luis Cesar S. Santos, Luisa Elem A. Cabral, Máderson A.S. Souza, Maíra D. Tofani, Marcela G.T. Carneiro, Marcelo Ferreira, Maria Angélica P. Bicalho, Maria Aparecida C. Lima, Maria Clara P.B. Godoy, Mariana F. Cardoso, Marilia M.A. [UNESP] Figueiredo, Meire P. Sampaio, Natália C.S. Rangel, Natália L. Crespo, Natália T. de Oliveira, Neimy R. Assaf, Pedro L. Martelli, Petrônio José de L. Almeida, Rafaela S.C. Martins, Raphael C. Lutkmeier, Raquel Valacio, Reginaldo Aparecido Finger, Renan G. Cardoso, Ricardo B. Pozza, Roberta Campos, Roberta X. Menezes, Rochele M. de Abreu, Roger M. Silva, Rufino de F. Guimarães, Silvana M.M. Araújo, Silvia F. Pereira, Susany Anastácia Oliveira, Talita F. Kurtz, Tatiana de Oliveira, Thainara C. Araújo, Thaíza Simônia M.A. Diniz, Thulio Henrique O. dos Santos, Veridiana B. Gomes, Virginia Mara R. do Vale, Vitor Augusto L. Ramires, Yuri C. Boersma, Eric Polanczyk, Carisi A. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) Institute for Health Technology Assessment IATS/ CNPq). Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Grupo Hospitalar Conceição Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul RGS) Hospital São Lucas PUCRS Rede Mater Dei de Saúde Hospital Márcio Cunha Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina UNISUL Dissertare Scientific Advice SOS Cardio Hospital Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Hospital Bruno Born Research Center of Vale do Taquari. Hospital Mãe de Deus Hospital Universitário de Canoas Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) Hospital Santa Rosalia Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro Hospital Moinhos de Vento Hospital Unimed BH Hospital Risoleta Tolentino Neves Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens Hospital Eduardo de Menezes Universidade FUMEC Hospital Julia Kubitschek Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Hospital São João de Deus Hospital Regional Antônio Dias Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais Faculdade de Ciências Humanas de Curvelo Av. Professor Alfredo Balena Hospital Santo Antônio Hospital Universitário Ciências Médicas PROSICS Barcelona Instituto René Rachou-FIOCRUZ Minas. Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul Hospital Regional do Oeste Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais Hospital Tacchini Centro Universitário de Patos de Minas. RPatos de Minas Hospital Semper Hospital Santa Cruz Universidade de Santa Cruz Fundação Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais – FHEMIG. Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE) Centro Universitário de Belo Horizonte UniBH) University Medical Center Rotterdam |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Marcolino, Milena S. Pires, Magda C. Ramos, Lucas Emanuel F. Silva, Rafael T. Oliveira, Luana M. Carvalho, Rafael L.R. Mourato, Rodolfo Lucas S. Sánchez-Montalvá, Adrián Raventós, Berta Anschau, Fernando Chatkin, José Miguel Nogueira, Matheus C.A. Guimarães-Júnior, Milton H. Vietta, Giovanna G. Duani, Helena Ponce, Daniela [UNESP] Ziegelmann, Patricia K. Castro, Luís C. Ruschel, Karen B. Cimini, Christiane C.R. Francisco, Saionara C. Floriani, Maiara A. Nascimento, Guilherme F. Farace, Bárbara L. Monteiro, Luanna S. Souza-Silva, Maira V.R. Sales, Thais L.S. Martins, Karina Paula M.P. Borges do Nascimento, Israel J. Fereguetti, Tatiani O. Ferrara, Daniel T.M.O. Botoni, Fernando A. Etges, Ana Paula B.S. Schwarzbold, Alexandre V. Maurílio, Amanda O. Scotton, Ana Luiza B.A. Weber, André P. Costa, André S.M. Glaeser, Andressa B. Madureira, Angélica Aparecida C. Bhering, Angelinda R. de Castro, Bruno Mateus da Silva, Carla Thais C.A. Ramos, Carolina M. Gomes, Caroline D. de Carvalho, Cíntia A. Silveira, Daniel V. Cezar, Edilson Pereira, Elayne C. Kroger, Emanuele Marianne S. Vallt, Felipe B. Lucas, Fernanda B. Aranha, Fernando G. Bartolazzi, Frederico Crestani, Gabriela P. Bastos, Gisele A.N. Madeira, Glícia Cristina de C. Noal, Helena Carolina Vianna, Heloisa R. Guimarães, Henrique C. Gomes, Isabela M. Molina, Israel Batista, Joanna d'Arc L. de Alvarenga, Joice C. Guimarães, Júlia D.S.S. de Morais, Júlia D.P. Rugolo, Juliana M. [UNESP] Pontes, Karen Cristina J.R. dos Santos, Kauane Aline M. de Oliveira, Leonardo S. Pinheiro, Lílian S. Pacheco, Liliane S. Sousa, Lucas de D. Couto, Luciana S.F. Kopittke, Luciane de Moura, Luis Cesar S. Santos, Luisa Elem A. Cabral, Máderson A.S. Souza, Maíra D. Tofani, Marcela G.T. Carneiro, Marcelo Ferreira, Maria Angélica P. Bicalho, Maria Aparecida C. Lima, Maria Clara P.B. Godoy, Mariana F. Cardoso, Marilia M.A. [UNESP] Figueiredo, Meire P. Sampaio, Natália C.S. Rangel, Natália L. Crespo, Natália T. de Oliveira, Neimy R. Assaf, Pedro L. Martelli, Petrônio José de L. Almeida, Rafaela S.C. Martins, Raphael C. Lutkmeier, Raquel Valacio, Reginaldo Aparecido Finger, Renan G. Cardoso, Ricardo B. Pozza, Roberta Campos, Roberta X. Menezes, Rochele M. de Abreu, Roger M. Silva, Rufino de F. Guimarães, Silvana M.M. Araújo, Silvia F. Pereira, Susany Anastácia Oliveira, Talita F. Kurtz, Tatiana de Oliveira, Thainara C. Araújo, Thaíza Simônia M.A. Diniz, Thulio Henrique O. dos Santos, Veridiana B. Gomes, Virginia Mara R. do Vale, Vitor Augusto L. Ramires, Yuri C. Boersma, Eric Polanczyk, Carisi A. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Hospitalizations Mortality Prognosis Risk factors SARS-CoV-2 Score |
topic |
COVID-19 Hospitalizations Mortality Prognosis Risk factors SARS-CoV-2 Score |
description |
Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-01 2022-04-29T08:31:56Z 2022-04-29T08:31:56Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049 International Journal of Infectious Diseases, v. 110, p. 281-308. 1878-3511 1201-9712 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/229327 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049 2-s2.0-85112538955 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/229327 |
identifier_str_mv |
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, v. 110, p. 281-308. 1878-3511 1201-9712 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049 2-s2.0-85112538955 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
281-308 |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
repositoriounesp@unesp.br |
_version_ |
1813546382319943680 |