Analysis of economic viability, under risk conditions, of the finishing cattle feedlot system in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Rodrigues Queiroz, Kaio Expedito
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Outros Autores: Damaceno dos Reis, Janderson, Rozemberg Peixoto Simões, André
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista Ambiente Contábil
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufrn.br/ambiente/article/view/23517
• topic: Beef Cattle; Feedlot; Economic viability; Sensitivity analysis; Ganado de carne; Corrales de endorde de ganado; Viabilidad económica; Análisis de sensibilidad; Bovinocultura de corte; Confinamento; Viabilidade econômica; Análise de sensibilidade; Avaliação Econômica

Purpose: Evaluate the sensitivity and economic viability of the feedlot system used for fattening cattle using reference a property located in the northern region of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methodology: We used a multidimensional approach to evaluate the sensitivity. The economic result was analyzed through cash flow, the net present value (NPV) being the viability indicator. The risks were incorporated with the Monte Carlo simulation for the prices of feed, purchase and sale of animals that were the discrete random variables, the value measure was the NPV, calculated with the minimum attractiveness rate of 7,55% per semester and the probabilities were estimated by relative frequency. Results: The probability of feedlot being an economically attractive activity was 30,2%, consequently the system was not viable in 69,8%. In the context of sensitivity, the feedlot was more vulnerable to fluctuations in the sale price, the 1% increase in the price fed cattle of generates on increased of 46% in NPV, being followed by feeder cattle price, the 1% increase in the feeder cattle price leads to a 29% reduced in NPV, and by the feeding price, the 1% increase in the feeding price leads to a 12% decreased in NPV. Contributions of the Study: The results found in this research may support new evaluations in representative samples, incorporate the studies on this topic and assist decision makers.