Analysis of economic viability under risk conditions of a beef cattle feedlot system in São Paulo State, Brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Queiroz, Kaio Expedito Rodrigues
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Outros Autores: Reis, Janderson Damaceno dos, Simões, Andre Rozemberg Peixoto
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Revista Ambiente Contábil
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufrn.br/ambiente/article/view/27710
• topic: Beef cattle. Feedlot. Economic viability. Sensitivity analysis..; Analysis of economic viability under risk conditions of a beef cattle feedlot system in São Paulo State, Brazil.; Ganado de carne. Corrales de engorde de ganado. Viabilidad económica. Análisis de sensibilidad; Análisis de viabilidad económica, en condiciones de riesgo, de ganado de ceba en un sistema de corrales de engorde en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil.; Bovinocultura de corte. Confinamento. Viabilidade econômica. Análise de sensibilidade.; Análise da viabilidade econômica, em condições de riscos, de um sistema de confinamento utilizado para a terminação de bovinos no estado de São Paulo, Brasil.

Purpose: Assess the sensitivity and economic viability of the beef cattle feedlot system using as a reference a farm located in northern São Paulo State, Brazil. Methodology: A multidimensional approach was used to assess sensitivity. Financial results were analyzed in terms of cash flow using the net present value (NPV) as a viability indicator. Risks were incorporated using Monte Carlo simulations, considering feed, animal purchase, and animal selling prices as discrete random variables. The value measure was NPV, calculated using a minimum attractive rate of return of 7.55% per semester. Probabilities were estimated by relative frequency analysis. Results: The probability of a feedlot being economically attractive was 30.2%, indicating that the system was not viable in 69.8% of the cases. Sensitivity analysis showed that the feedlot was most vulnerable to fluctuations in selling price (a 1% increase in fed cattle price generated a 46% increase in NPV), followed by feeder cattle price (a 1% increase in feeder cattle price led to a 29% reduction in NPV) and feed price (a 1% increase in feed price produced a 12% reduction in NPV). Contributions of the Study: The findings of this study may support new evaluations in representative samples, complement previous studies on the topic, and assist decision makers.