Determinantes na escolha modal de estudantes de graduação em viagens para a UFRN

• Autor(a) principal: Lopes, Jade Cunha
• Data de Publicação: 2017
• Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFRN
• Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/40657
• topic: Modelo de escolha discreta; Escolha modal; Estudantes universitários; Políticas públicas

Considering the need of developing mobility plans coherent with the Política Nacional de Mobilidade Urbana (PNMU), this article aims to identify the modal choice determinant factors of undergraduate students to Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), in order to base the targeting of these plans and therefore prioritize investments. The procedure is done by applying a questionnaire and subsequent data treatment with discrete choice probabilistic models, in this case the Binomial logit model, using BIOGEME software. The model with best approximation for car and public transport (the only ones modeled) utility function consider as independent factor only “travel time” and, although the prediction founded was close to reality, presents and adjust of only 40%. The results demonstrate the failure of utility function models rationality in accurately predict individual behaviors, because it does not contemplate subjective factors. Furthermore, the results evidence the travel cost estimation complexity and the misconception with which the undergraduate students spend on gas. Finally, one can affirm that the use of probabilistic models in this case is inefficient and it is suggested future use of different models aiming a better population fit, as well as the use of cost simulation so a better choice balance can be found.