An?lise de desempenho de fundos de investimento multimercado macro no Brasil no per?odo de 2005 a 2010: um estudo com aplica??o de an?lise envolt?ria de dados (DEA)

• Main Author: Melo, Rodrigo Alves de
• Publication Date: 2011
• Format: Master thesis
• Language: por
• Source: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRRJ
• Download full: https://tede.ufrrj.br/jspui/handle/jspui/1214
• topic: performance persistence; mutual fund; persist?ncia de performance; fundo de investimento; DEA; Administra??o

This dissertation studies the performance of brazilian mutual funds stock portfolios classified as ?multimercado macro? from april, 2005 to march, 2010 by a multicriteria manner. The research aims to evaluate: (i) the success of market timing and stock picking strategies; (ii) the performance persistence taking into account macroeconomic various periods and (iii) if persistence depends on the time period analyzed, the performance indicator used or other variables such as size, client kind or investment profile. Therefore, were calculated the risk measures beta and standard deviation, the performance measures average return and cumulative return and the stock picking measure Fama?s decomposition for six months, one year and two years and six months periods and the stock picking measure Jensen's alpha and the market timing measure proposed by Treynor and Mazuy for two years and six months periods. The statistical tools used to verify the influence of control variables on performance and whether there is an association between the results were the Mann-Whitney?s test and Spearman?s correlation coefficient. The sample exhibits survivorship bias since it includes only the mutual funds that were actives throughout the studied period. Most studied portfolios failed to outperform the market by using stock picking and market timing strategies. Significant influences of the control variables size and investment profile were found, but only concerning the market timing measure. In the performance persistence analysis, only the systematic risk beta showed persistent evidences throughout the studied period, since the managers couldn?t keep the total risk under control during the financial crisis. In general, the portfolios have been unable to persist in any of the performance indicators, except for the unauthorized-operating-leveraged portfolio group, which showed persistence in average and cumulative returns and in selectivity indicator Fama?s decomposition, but only in long-term. Finally, DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) enabled the creation of a portfolios? efficiency ranking taking into account its cumulative returns and systematic and total risks and only one portfolio showed maximum efficiency for the studied period.