Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFS |
Texto Completo: | http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/11201 |
Resumo: | The economic cycle is one of the main fields of economic science. This dissertation discusses cycle theories of Keynesian and Austrian orientations. According to Keynesian economists, cycles are a consequence of fluctuations in confidence and expectations and must be answered by countercyclical economic policies. To develop this current, one draws on Keynes's original contributions, the ISLM model, and post-Keynesian considerations on the cycle. For Austrian economists, short-term fluctuations are natural, but the economic cycle is caused by imbalances in the money market and the price system. As a development of the Austrian theory, the dissertation makes an exposition of the GSMS model. The empirical analysis approaches the Brazilian economy between 2003 and 2018. Despite high growth rates at first, the economy arrives at the last years of the 2010 stagnated, without being able to increase its production and with a high number of unemployed. The objective is to relate the increase of credit and currency during the period proposed with the phases of economic expansion and retraction, in the context of the inflation targeting system. The dissertation proposes the investigation of the motivations behind the macroeconomic policies, seeking to identify the official opinion of the government. Therefore, it is proposed to read the minutes of Copom meetings and relevant speeches and laws throughout the period. In addition, bibliographic review and descriptive statistics are used. The dissertation indicates points of agreement between Austrians and Keynesians, such as the excess of unsubstantiated investments in the high phase of the cycle and the thesis of non-neutrality of money. The empirical results indicate that the Copom, following the inflation targeting system, ignored the excessive growth of the money supply. |
id |
UFS-2_1e81900f6a4ed7201a0af6c6c9334a58 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ufs.br:riufs/11201 |
network_acronym_str |
UFS-2 |
network_name_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFS |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Vaz-Curado, Samuel Fernandes LucenaMueller, Antony Peter2019-05-27T15:30:24Z2019-05-27T15:30:24Z2019-02-28VAZ-CURADO, Samuel Fernandes Lucena. Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018. 2019. 125 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2019.http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/11201The economic cycle is one of the main fields of economic science. This dissertation discusses cycle theories of Keynesian and Austrian orientations. According to Keynesian economists, cycles are a consequence of fluctuations in confidence and expectations and must be answered by countercyclical economic policies. To develop this current, one draws on Keynes's original contributions, the ISLM model, and post-Keynesian considerations on the cycle. For Austrian economists, short-term fluctuations are natural, but the economic cycle is caused by imbalances in the money market and the price system. As a development of the Austrian theory, the dissertation makes an exposition of the GSMS model. The empirical analysis approaches the Brazilian economy between 2003 and 2018. Despite high growth rates at first, the economy arrives at the last years of the 2010 stagnated, without being able to increase its production and with a high number of unemployed. The objective is to relate the increase of credit and currency during the period proposed with the phases of economic expansion and retraction, in the context of the inflation targeting system. The dissertation proposes the investigation of the motivations behind the macroeconomic policies, seeking to identify the official opinion of the government. Therefore, it is proposed to read the minutes of Copom meetings and relevant speeches and laws throughout the period. In addition, bibliographic review and descriptive statistics are used. The dissertation indicates points of agreement between Austrians and Keynesians, such as the excess of unsubstantiated investments in the high phase of the cycle and the thesis of non-neutrality of money. The empirical results indicate that the Copom, following the inflation targeting system, ignored the excessive growth of the money supply.O ciclo econômico constitui um dos principais campos da ciência econômica. Esta dissertação debate teorias dos ciclos de orientações keynesiana e austríaca. Segundo os economistas keynesianos, os ciclos são consequência de flutuações da confiança e das expectativas e devem ser respondidos com políticas econômicas anticíclicas. Para desenvolver esta corrente, o trabalho recorre às contribuições originais de Keynes, ao modelo IS-LM e a considerações pós-keynesianas sobre o ciclo. Para os economistas austríacos, as flutuações de curto prazo são naturais, mas o ciclo econômico é causado por desequilíbrios no mercado monetário e no sistema de preços. Como desenvolvimento da teoria austríaca, o trabalho faz uma exposição do modelo GSMS. A análise empírica do trabalho aborda a economia brasileira entre 2003 e 2018. Apesar de taxas elevadas de crescimento num primeiro momento, a economia chega aos últimos anos da década de 2010 estagnada, sem conseguir aumentar sua produção e com um alto número de desempregados. O objetivo é relacionar o aumento do crédito e da moeda durante o período proposto com as fases de expansão e retração econômica, no contexto do sistema de metas de inflação. O trabalho propõe a investigação das motivações por trás das políticas macroeconômicas, buscando identificar o discuso oficial do governo. Para tanto, propõe-se a leitura das atas das reuniões do Copom e de discursos e leis relevantes ao longo do período. Além disso, utiliza-se de revisão bibliográfica e estatística descritiva. A dissertação indica pontos de concordância entre austríacos e keynesianos, como o excesso de investimentos infundados na fase de alta do ciclo e a tese da não neutralidade da moeda. Os resultados empíricos apontam que o Copom, ao seguir o sistema de metas de inflação, ignorou o crescimento excessivo da oferta monetária.São Cristóvão, SEporEconomiaTeoria keynesianaTeoria austríaca dos ciclos econômicosEscola austríaca (Economia)Modelo GSMSEconomia brasileiraComitê de Política Monetária (Copom)Keynesian theoryAustrian theory of business cyclesGSMS modelBrazilian economyCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIATeoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisPós-Graduação em EconomiaUFSreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSinstname:Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)instacron:UFSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTEXTSAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.txtSAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain263910https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/3/SAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.txt7b8b10bb39c835a491ce8823da7bf978MD53THUMBNAILSAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.jpgSAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1212https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/4/SAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.jpgb650b965163c14beed4e859ba6aeec92MD54LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81475https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/1/license.txt098cbbf65c2c15e1fb2e49c5d306a44cMD51ORIGINALSAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdfSAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdfapplication/pdf2211928https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/2/SAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdff0f977ea2f9b58d72e4d08dfd82d0c8cMD52riufs/112012019-05-27 12:30:24.485oai:ufs.br:riufs/11201TElDRU7Dh0EgREUgRElTVFJJQlVJw4fDg08gTsODTy1FWENMVVNJVkEKCkNvbSBhIGFwcmVzZW50YcOnw6NvIGRlc3RhIGxpY2Vuw6dhLCB2b2PDqiAobyBhdXRvcihlcykgb3UgbyB0aXR1bGFyIGRvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBkZSBhdXRvcikgY29uY2VkZSDDoCBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUgRmVkZXJhbCBkZSBTZXJnaXBlIG8gZGlyZWl0byBuw6NvLWV4Y2x1c2l2byBkZSByZXByb2R1emlyIHNldSB0cmFiYWxobyBubyBmb3JtYXRvIGVsZXRyw7RuaWNvLCBpbmNsdWluZG8gb3MgZm9ybWF0b3Mgw6F1ZGlvIG91IHbDrWRlby4KClZvY8OqIGNvbmNvcmRhIHF1ZSBhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkZSBGZWRlcmFsIGRlIFNlcmdpcGUgcG9kZSwgc2VtIGFsdGVyYXIgbyBjb250ZcO6ZG8sIHRyYW5zcG9yIHNldSB0cmFiYWxobyBwYXJhIHF1YWxxdWVyIG1laW8gb3UgZm9ybWF0byBwYXJhIGZpbnMgZGUgcHJlc2VydmHDp8Ojby4KClZvY8OqIHRhbWLDqW0gY29uY29yZGEgcXVlIGEgVW5pdmVyc2lkYWRlIEZlZGVyYWwgZGUgU2VyZ2lwZSBwb2RlIG1hbnRlciBtYWlzIGRlIHVtYSBjw7NwaWEgZGUgc2V1IHRyYWJhbGhvIHBhcmEgZmlucyBkZSBzZWd1cmFuw6dhLCBiYWNrLXVwIGUgcHJlc2VydmHDp8Ojby4KClZvY8OqIGRlY2xhcmEgcXVlIHNldSB0cmFiYWxobyDDqSBvcmlnaW5hbCBlIHF1ZSB2b2PDqiB0ZW0gbyBwb2RlciBkZSBjb25jZWRlciBvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBjb250aWRvcyBuZXN0YSBsaWNlbsOnYS4gVm9jw6ogdGFtYsOpbSBkZWNsYXJhIHF1ZSBvIGRlcMOzc2l0bywgcXVlIHNlamEgZGUgc2V1IGNvbmhlY2ltZW50bywgbsOjbyBpbmZyaW5nZSBkaXJlaXRvcyBhdXRvcmFpcyBkZSBuaW5ndcOpbS4KCkNhc28gbyB0cmFiYWxobyBjb250ZW5oYSBtYXRlcmlhbCBxdWUgdm9jw6ogbsOjbyBwb3NzdWkgYSB0aXR1bGFyaWRhZGUgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzLCB2b2PDqiBkZWNsYXJhIHF1ZSBvYnRldmUgYSBwZXJtaXNzw6NvIGlycmVzdHJpdGEgZG8gZGV0ZW50b3IgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIHBhcmEgY29uY2VkZXIgw6AgVW5pdmVyc2lkYWRlIEZlZGVyYWwgZGUgU2VyZ2lwZSBvcyBkaXJlaXRvcyBhcHJlc2VudGFkb3MgbmVzdGEgbGljZW7Dp2EsIGUgcXVlIGVzc2UgbWF0ZXJpYWwgZGUgcHJvcHJpZWRhZGUgZGUgdGVyY2Vpcm9zIGVzdMOhIGNsYXJhbWVudGUgaWRlbnRpZmljYWRvIGUgcmVjb25oZWNpZG8gbm8gdGV4dG8gb3Ugbm8gY29udGXDumRvLgoKQSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZGUgRmVkZXJhbCBkZSBTZXJnaXBlIHNlIGNvbXByb21ldGUgYSBpZGVudGlmaWNhciBjbGFyYW1lbnRlIG8gc2V1IG5vbWUocykgb3UgbyhzKSBub21lKHMpIGRvKHMpIApkZXRlbnRvcihlcykgZG9zIGRpcmVpdG9zIGF1dG9yYWlzIGRvIHRyYWJhbGhvLCBlIG7Do28gZmFyw6EgcXVhbHF1ZXIgYWx0ZXJhw6fDo28sIGFsw6ltIGRhcXVlbGFzIGNvbmNlZGlkYXMgcG9yIGVzdGEgbGljZW7Dp2EuIAo=Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://ri.ufs.br/oai/requestrepositorio@academico.ufs.bropendoar:2019-05-27T15:30:24Repositório Institucional da UFS - Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 |
title |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 |
spellingShingle |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 Vaz-Curado, Samuel Fernandes Lucena Economia Teoria keynesiana Teoria austríaca dos ciclos econômicos Escola austríaca (Economia) Modelo GSMS Economia brasileira Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) Keynesian theory Austrian theory of business cycles GSMS model Brazilian economy CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 |
title_full |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 |
title_fullStr |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 |
title_sort |
Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018 |
author |
Vaz-Curado, Samuel Fernandes Lucena |
author_facet |
Vaz-Curado, Samuel Fernandes Lucena |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Vaz-Curado, Samuel Fernandes Lucena |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Mueller, Antony Peter |
contributor_str_mv |
Mueller, Antony Peter |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia Teoria keynesiana Teoria austríaca dos ciclos econômicos Escola austríaca (Economia) Modelo GSMS Economia brasileira Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) Keynesian theory Austrian theory of business cycles GSMS model Brazilian economy |
topic |
Economia Teoria keynesiana Teoria austríaca dos ciclos econômicos Escola austríaca (Economia) Modelo GSMS Economia brasileira Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) Keynesian theory Austrian theory of business cycles GSMS model Brazilian economy CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
The economic cycle is one of the main fields of economic science. This dissertation discusses cycle theories of Keynesian and Austrian orientations. According to Keynesian economists, cycles are a consequence of fluctuations in confidence and expectations and must be answered by countercyclical economic policies. To develop this current, one draws on Keynes's original contributions, the ISLM model, and post-Keynesian considerations on the cycle. For Austrian economists, short-term fluctuations are natural, but the economic cycle is caused by imbalances in the money market and the price system. As a development of the Austrian theory, the dissertation makes an exposition of the GSMS model. The empirical analysis approaches the Brazilian economy between 2003 and 2018. Despite high growth rates at first, the economy arrives at the last years of the 2010 stagnated, without being able to increase its production and with a high number of unemployed. The objective is to relate the increase of credit and currency during the period proposed with the phases of economic expansion and retraction, in the context of the inflation targeting system. The dissertation proposes the investigation of the motivations behind the macroeconomic policies, seeking to identify the official opinion of the government. Therefore, it is proposed to read the minutes of Copom meetings and relevant speeches and laws throughout the period. In addition, bibliographic review and descriptive statistics are used. The dissertation indicates points of agreement between Austrians and Keynesians, such as the excess of unsubstantiated investments in the high phase of the cycle and the thesis of non-neutrality of money. The empirical results indicate that the Copom, following the inflation targeting system, ignored the excessive growth of the money supply. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2019-05-27T15:30:24Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2019-05-27T15:30:24Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-02-28 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
VAZ-CURADO, Samuel Fernandes Lucena. Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018. 2019. 125 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2019. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/11201 |
identifier_str_mv |
VAZ-CURADO, Samuel Fernandes Lucena. Teoria dos ciclos econômicos: o caso brasileiro entre 2003 e 2018. 2019. 125 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2019. |
url |
http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/11201 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Pós-Graduação em Economia |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFS instname:Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS) instacron:UFS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS) |
instacron_str |
UFS |
institution |
UFS |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFS |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UFS |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/3/SAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.txt https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/4/SAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf.jpg https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/1/license.txt https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11201/2/SAMUEL_FERNANDES_L_VAZ-CURADO.pdf |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
7b8b10bb39c835a491ce8823da7bf978 b650b965163c14beed4e859ba6aeec92 098cbbf65c2c15e1fb2e49c5d306a44c f0f977ea2f9b58d72e4d08dfd82d0c8c |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UFS - Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
repositorio@academico.ufs.br |
_version_ |
1802110763428478976 |