Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018)
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFS |
Texto Completo: | http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/11800 |
Resumo: | In soccer, game statistics are an important tool for determining predictive models of performance or outcome. Knowledge of these models can assist coaches in training and game planning. Thus, this dissertation, organized in two independent studies, analyzed the evolutionary trend of the goal average and estimated the odds ratio for the occurrence of results from the game-related statistical data of the FIFA World Cup of Men's Professional Soccer (CMFIFA). In study 1, all 900 matches of the 21 CMFIFA performed between the years 1930 and 2018 were analyzed. The data were organized in: goals scored and suffered in the first and final games; and partial results (first time) and final results (win, draw, and lose). Descriptive and trend analyzes were carried out to verify the evolution of the goal average in the editions of the CMFIFA studied. A cross table was used to check the final scores of the games, followed by an association analysis between partial (first time) and final results of all matches, and a multinomial logistic regression to identify the odds for final victory from the partial results (first time). The results showed a polynomial trend of the mean of goals (p ≤ 0.01; r = 0.34) with the highest mean for the 1954 CMFIFA Switzerland (5.23 ± 2.86) and the lowest mean for CMFIFA Italy 1990 (2.1 ± 1.56). In 64% of the games the scores ended between 0x0 and 2x1. Teams that finished the first half winning had a victory in at least 70% of the games, and never a team lost the match when the first half result was a victory for ≥2 goals difference. On the other hand, losing in the first half increased by more than 100 times the chance of losing the match (OR = 102.6, p <0.01). In study 2, we analyzed the official game-related statistics of all 384 matches of CMFIFA South Africa 2010, Brazil 2014 and Russia 2018. Five independent variables categorized from the median (effective ball possession, red cards, finalizations (%), finals / goals ratio (%) and first-half results. Soon after, a multinomial regression analysis was performed, with the final results of the matches as a result (victory, draw and lose). The model was able to predict above 70% of the overall results, from 80% in predictions of victory results. The chances of success (win in the match) were higher by 50 times with victory in the first half, 14 times with the draw / goals ratio> 7.7%, and four times if they do not receive red cards. We conclude that the goal average of CMFIFA has an undulatory tendency; there are prevalence of placards ≤3 goals; partial victory is associated with the final victory and defeat in relation to the partial victory increases the chance of defeat at the end of the game; victory over partial defeat, not taking red cards and having a better goals / finish line represent a better chance of winning at the end of the games. |
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Barreto, Flávio Vinicius FonsecaAlmeida, Marcos Bezerra de2019-08-20T22:01:58Z2019-08-20T22:01:58Z2019-02-14BARRETO, Flávio Vinicius Fonseca. Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018). 2019. 51 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Educação Física) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2019.http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/11800In soccer, game statistics are an important tool for determining predictive models of performance or outcome. Knowledge of these models can assist coaches in training and game planning. Thus, this dissertation, organized in two independent studies, analyzed the evolutionary trend of the goal average and estimated the odds ratio for the occurrence of results from the game-related statistical data of the FIFA World Cup of Men's Professional Soccer (CMFIFA). In study 1, all 900 matches of the 21 CMFIFA performed between the years 1930 and 2018 were analyzed. The data were organized in: goals scored and suffered in the first and final games; and partial results (first time) and final results (win, draw, and lose). Descriptive and trend analyzes were carried out to verify the evolution of the goal average in the editions of the CMFIFA studied. A cross table was used to check the final scores of the games, followed by an association analysis between partial (first time) and final results of all matches, and a multinomial logistic regression to identify the odds for final victory from the partial results (first time). The results showed a polynomial trend of the mean of goals (p ≤ 0.01; r = 0.34) with the highest mean for the 1954 CMFIFA Switzerland (5.23 ± 2.86) and the lowest mean for CMFIFA Italy 1990 (2.1 ± 1.56). In 64% of the games the scores ended between 0x0 and 2x1. Teams that finished the first half winning had a victory in at least 70% of the games, and never a team lost the match when the first half result was a victory for ≥2 goals difference. On the other hand, losing in the first half increased by more than 100 times the chance of losing the match (OR = 102.6, p <0.01). In study 2, we analyzed the official game-related statistics of all 384 matches of CMFIFA South Africa 2010, Brazil 2014 and Russia 2018. Five independent variables categorized from the median (effective ball possession, red cards, finalizations (%), finals / goals ratio (%) and first-half results. Soon after, a multinomial regression analysis was performed, with the final results of the matches as a result (victory, draw and lose). The model was able to predict above 70% of the overall results, from 80% in predictions of victory results. The chances of success (win in the match) were higher by 50 times with victory in the first half, 14 times with the draw / goals ratio> 7.7%, and four times if they do not receive red cards. We conclude that the goal average of CMFIFA has an undulatory tendency; there are prevalence of placards ≤3 goals; partial victory is associated with the final victory and defeat in relation to the partial victory increases the chance of defeat at the end of the game; victory over partial defeat, not taking red cards and having a better goals / finish line represent a better chance of winning at the end of the games.No futebol moderno, as estatísticas de jogo são uma ferramenta importante para determinação de modelos preditivos de performance ou de resultado. O conhecimento desses modelos pode auxiliar treinadores no planejamento de treinos e jogos. Assim, essa dissertação, organizada em dois estudos independentes, analisou a tendência evolutiva da média de gols e estimou a razão de chance da ocorrência de resultados a partir dos dados estatísticos de jogo nas Copas do Mundo de Futebol Profissional Masculino da FIFA (CMFIFA). No estudo 1, foram analisadas todas as 900 partidas das 21 CMFIFA realizadas entre os anos 1930 e 2018. Os dados foram organizados em: gols marcados e sofridos no primeiro tempo e final das partidas; e resultados parciais (primeiro tempo) e finais das mesmas (vitória, empate, derrota). Foram realizadas análises descritivas e de tendência para verificar a evolução da média de gols nas edições das CMFIFA estudadas. Foi realizada uma tabela cruzada a fim de verificar os placares finais dos jogos, seguida de uma análise de associação entre os resultados parciais (primeiro tempo) e finais de todas as partidas, e uma regressão logística multinomial para identificar a razão de chance de vitória final a partir dos resultados parciais (primeiro tempo). Os resultados mostraram uma tendência polinomial da média de gols (p ≤ 0,01; r = 0,34) com a maior média para a CMFIFA Suíça 1954 (5,23 ± 2,86) e a menor média para a CMFIFA Itália 1990 (2,1 ± 1,56). Em 64% dos jogos os placares terminaram entre 0x0 e 2x1. Equipes que terminaram o primeiro tempo vencendo obtiveram vitória em pelo menos 70% dos jogos, sendo que nunca uma equipe perdeu a partida quando o resultado do primeiro tempo foi de vitória por ≥2 gols de diferença. Por outro lado, perder no primeiro tempo aumentou em mais de 100 vezes a chance de perder a partida (OR = 102,6; p < 0,01). No estudo 2, analisamos as estatísticas de jogo oficiais de todas as 384 partidas das CMFIFA África do Sul 2010, Brasil 2014 e Rússia 2018. Foram incluídas no modelo cinco variáveis independentes categorizadas a partir da mediana (posse de bola efetiva, cartões vermelhos, finalizações efetivas (%), relação finalizações/gols (%) e resultado do primeiro tempo). Logo após foi realizada análise de regressão multinomial tendo como desfecho os resultados finais das partidas (vitória, empate e derrota). O modelo foi capaz de predizer acima de 70% dos resultados em geral, passando dos 80% em predições de resultados de vitória. As chances de sucesso (vitória no jogo) foram maiores em 50 vezes com vitória no primeiro tempo, em 14 vezes com a relação finalizações/gols >7,7%, e em quatro vezes caso não recebam cartões vermelhos. Concluímos que as médias de gols das CMFIFA possuem uma tendência ondulatória; há prevalência de placares ≤3 gols; vitória parcial é associada à vitória final e derrota em relação à vitória parcial aumenta a chance de derrota no final do jogo; vitória em relação à derrota parcial, não tomar cartões vermelhos e ter uma melhor relação gols/finalizações representam maiores chances de vitória no final das partidas.São Cristóvão, SEporEducação físicaCopas do mundo (Futebol)FutebolEstatísticasRazão de chanceAnálise de jogoEstatísticas de jogoSoccerOdds ratioGame analysisGame-related statisticsCIENCIAS DA SAUDE::EDUCACAO FISICATendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisPós-Graduação em Educação FísicaUFSreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSinstname:Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)instacron:UFSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALFLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdfFLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdfapplication/pdf324830https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11800/2/FLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdf36306e4327936dc33dab67c429fa2a89MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81475https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11800/1/license.txt098cbbf65c2c15e1fb2e49c5d306a44cMD51TEXTFLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdf.txtFLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain93665https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11800/3/FLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdf.txt580cfbdb7d5f3481e06ad37ebb0b3c99MD53THUMBNAILFLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdf.jpgFLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1264https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/11800/4/FLAVIO_VINICIUS_FONSECA_BARRETO.pdf.jpg926b73af12b8e74436282ef2fcff2d48MD54riufs/118002019-08-20 19:01:58.603oai:ufs.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://ri.ufs.br/oai/requestrepositorio@academico.ufs.bropendoar:2019-08-20T22:01:58Repositório Institucional da UFS - Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) |
title |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) |
spellingShingle |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) Barreto, Flávio Vinicius Fonseca Educação física Copas do mundo (Futebol) Futebol Estatísticas Razão de chance Análise de jogo Estatísticas de jogo Soccer Odds ratio Game analysis Game-related statistics CIENCIAS DA SAUDE::EDUCACAO FISICA |
title_short |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) |
title_full |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) |
title_fullStr |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) |
title_sort |
Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018) |
author |
Barreto, Flávio Vinicius Fonseca |
author_facet |
Barreto, Flávio Vinicius Fonseca |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Barreto, Flávio Vinicius Fonseca |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, Marcos Bezerra de |
contributor_str_mv |
Almeida, Marcos Bezerra de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Educação física Copas do mundo (Futebol) Futebol Estatísticas Razão de chance Análise de jogo Estatísticas de jogo |
topic |
Educação física Copas do mundo (Futebol) Futebol Estatísticas Razão de chance Análise de jogo Estatísticas de jogo Soccer Odds ratio Game analysis Game-related statistics CIENCIAS DA SAUDE::EDUCACAO FISICA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Soccer Odds ratio Game analysis Game-related statistics |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS DA SAUDE::EDUCACAO FISICA |
description |
In soccer, game statistics are an important tool for determining predictive models of performance or outcome. Knowledge of these models can assist coaches in training and game planning. Thus, this dissertation, organized in two independent studies, analyzed the evolutionary trend of the goal average and estimated the odds ratio for the occurrence of results from the game-related statistical data of the FIFA World Cup of Men's Professional Soccer (CMFIFA). In study 1, all 900 matches of the 21 CMFIFA performed between the years 1930 and 2018 were analyzed. The data were organized in: goals scored and suffered in the first and final games; and partial results (first time) and final results (win, draw, and lose). Descriptive and trend analyzes were carried out to verify the evolution of the goal average in the editions of the CMFIFA studied. A cross table was used to check the final scores of the games, followed by an association analysis between partial (first time) and final results of all matches, and a multinomial logistic regression to identify the odds for final victory from the partial results (first time). The results showed a polynomial trend of the mean of goals (p ≤ 0.01; r = 0.34) with the highest mean for the 1954 CMFIFA Switzerland (5.23 ± 2.86) and the lowest mean for CMFIFA Italy 1990 (2.1 ± 1.56). In 64% of the games the scores ended between 0x0 and 2x1. Teams that finished the first half winning had a victory in at least 70% of the games, and never a team lost the match when the first half result was a victory for ≥2 goals difference. On the other hand, losing in the first half increased by more than 100 times the chance of losing the match (OR = 102.6, p <0.01). In study 2, we analyzed the official game-related statistics of all 384 matches of CMFIFA South Africa 2010, Brazil 2014 and Russia 2018. Five independent variables categorized from the median (effective ball possession, red cards, finalizations (%), finals / goals ratio (%) and first-half results. Soon after, a multinomial regression analysis was performed, with the final results of the matches as a result (victory, draw and lose). The model was able to predict above 70% of the overall results, from 80% in predictions of victory results. The chances of success (win in the match) were higher by 50 times with victory in the first half, 14 times with the draw / goals ratio> 7.7%, and four times if they do not receive red cards. We conclude that the goal average of CMFIFA has an undulatory tendency; there are prevalence of placards ≤3 goals; partial victory is associated with the final victory and defeat in relation to the partial victory increases the chance of defeat at the end of the game; victory over partial defeat, not taking red cards and having a better goals / finish line represent a better chance of winning at the end of the games. |
publishDate |
2019 |
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2019-08-20T22:01:58Z |
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2019-08-20T22:01:58Z |
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2019-02-14 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
BARRETO, Flávio Vinicius Fonseca. Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018). 2019. 51 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Educação Física) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2019. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/11800 |
identifier_str_mv |
BARRETO, Flávio Vinicius Fonseca. Tendência evolutiva e análise preditiva nas copas do mundo de futebol profissional masculino (1930-2018). 2019. 51 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Educação Física) - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, SE, 2019. |
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