Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe

• Autor(a) principal: Santos, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFS
• Texto Completo: http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/12203
• topic: Estatística e Ciências Atuariais; Ensino de estatística; Índice geral de criminalidade; Sergipe; Métodos bayesianos; Distribuição espacial; Evolução temporal; General Criminality Index; Bayesian Methods; Spatial Distribution; Time Evolution; CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA::ANALISE MULTIVARIADA

Criminality is a complex phenomenon because it involves multiple factors and it is the prevalent occurrence of various attitudes that inflict the law. These actions cause a feeling of insecurity in society, harming their social welfare. In this sense, the present study treated the criminality as a multivariate phenomenon, aiming to construct a single index (IGCrime) indicating the level of crime in each of the 75 municipalities of the state of Sergipe due to the significant offenses registered between 2010 and 2018. The main offenses studied were intentional murder, Robbery with death, Robbery, Theft, Rape, intentional Bodily Injury, Threat and Assault. In a descriptive study, it was observed that the crimes of intentional Homicide, Robbery with death and Robbery evolved rapidly between these years. On the other hand, the other infractions obtained little annual variation. For a joint assessment of all offenses the general crime rate based on the Bayesian approach was used. The results of this index showed the increase in the level of crime in the state, highlighting the displacement of the highest index in the metropolitan region in 2010, to neighboring cities including the eastern and southern regions of the state, being cities of higher urban density and near to the economic center. Therefore, IGCrime is a very important tool to assess the spatial evolution of the phenomenon, as well as it provides information for future studies and contributes to public safety managers indicating the locations that are alert or not, according to the index in the nine years of analysis.