Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Trabalho de conclusão de curso |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFS |
Texto Completo: | http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/12203 |
Resumo: | Criminality is a complex phenomenon because it involves multiple factors and it is the prevalent occurrence of various attitudes that inflict the law. These actions cause a feeling of insecurity in society, harming their social welfare. In this sense, the present study treated the criminality as a multivariate phenomenon, aiming to construct a single index (IGCrime) indicating the level of crime in each of the 75 municipalities of the state of Sergipe due to the significant offenses registered between 2010 and 2018. The main offenses studied were intentional murder, Robbery with death, Robbery, Theft, Rape, intentional Bodily Injury, Threat and Assault. In a descriptive study, it was observed that the crimes of intentional Homicide, Robbery with death and Robbery evolved rapidly between these years. On the other hand, the other infractions obtained little annual variation. For a joint assessment of all offenses the general crime rate based on the Bayesian approach was used. The results of this index showed the increase in the level of crime in the state, highlighting the displacement of the highest index in the metropolitan region in 2010, to neighboring cities including the eastern and southern regions of the state, being cities of higher urban density and near to the economic center. Therefore, IGCrime is a very important tool to assess the spatial evolution of the phenomenon, as well as it provides information for future studies and contributes to public safety managers indicating the locations that are alert or not, according to the index in the nine years of analysis. |
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Santos, Jesy Karolayne Sales dosXavier, Cleber Martins2019-10-23T22:33:43Z2019-10-23T22:33:43Z2019-08-30SANTOS, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos. Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe. 2019. Monografia (Graduação em Estatística) – Curso de Estatística, Departamento de Estatística e Ciências Atuariais, Centro de Ciências Exatas e Tecnologia, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, 2019.http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/12203Criminality is a complex phenomenon because it involves multiple factors and it is the prevalent occurrence of various attitudes that inflict the law. These actions cause a feeling of insecurity in society, harming their social welfare. In this sense, the present study treated the criminality as a multivariate phenomenon, aiming to construct a single index (IGCrime) indicating the level of crime in each of the 75 municipalities of the state of Sergipe due to the significant offenses registered between 2010 and 2018. The main offenses studied were intentional murder, Robbery with death, Robbery, Theft, Rape, intentional Bodily Injury, Threat and Assault. In a descriptive study, it was observed that the crimes of intentional Homicide, Robbery with death and Robbery evolved rapidly between these years. On the other hand, the other infractions obtained little annual variation. For a joint assessment of all offenses the general crime rate based on the Bayesian approach was used. The results of this index showed the increase in the level of crime in the state, highlighting the displacement of the highest index in the metropolitan region in 2010, to neighboring cities including the eastern and southern regions of the state, being cities of higher urban density and near to the economic center. Therefore, IGCrime is a very important tool to assess the spatial evolution of the phenomenon, as well as it provides information for future studies and contributes to public safety managers indicating the locations that are alert or not, according to the index in the nine years of analysis.A criminalidade é um fenômeno complexo, pois abrange múltiplos fatores e constitui-se na ocorrência prevalente de variadas atitudes que infligem a lei. Estas ações provocam na sociedade a sensação de insegurança, prejudicando seu bem-estar social. Neste sentido, o presente estudo tratou a criminalidade como um fenômeno multivariado, objetivando construir um único índice (IGCrime) indicando o nível de criminalidade em cada um dos 75 municípios do estado de Sergipe em função dos expressivos delitos registrados entre os anos de 2010 a 2018. As principais infrações estudadas foram Homicídio Doloso, Latrocínio, Roubo, Furto, Estupro, Lesão Corporal Dolosa, Ameaça e Vias de Fato. Em estudo descritivo, observou-se que os crimes de Homicídio, Latrocínio e Roubo evoluíram rapidamente entre estes anos. Por outro lado, as demais infrações obtiveram pouca variação anual. Para uma avaliação conjunta de todos os delitos utilizou-se o índice de criminalidade geral baseado na abordagem Bayesiana. Os resultados deste índice mostraram o aumento no nível de criminalidade no estado, destacando o deslocamento do índice mais elevado na região metropolitana no ano de 2010, para as cidades vizinhas englobando a região leste e sul do estado, sendo cidades de maior densidade urbana e próxima ao centroeconômico. Portanto, o IGCrime é uma ferramenta de suma importância para avaliar a evolução espacial do fenômeno, além de subsidiar informações para estudos futuros e contribuir com os gestores da segurança pública indicando as localidades que estão em alerta ou não de acordo com o índice nos nove anos de análise.São Cristóvão, SEporEstatística e Ciências AtuariaisEnsino de estatísticaÍndice geral de criminalidadeSergipeMétodos bayesianosDistribuição espacialEvolução temporalGeneral Criminality IndexBayesian MethodsSpatial DistributionTime EvolutionCIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA::ANALISE MULTIVARIADAÍndice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesisUniversidade Federal de SergipeDECAT - Departamento de Estatística e Ciências Atuariais – Estatística – São Cristóvão - Presencialreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSinstname:Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)instacron:UFSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81475https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/12203/1/license.txt098cbbf65c2c15e1fb2e49c5d306a44cMD51ORIGINALJesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdfJesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdfapplication/pdf2585768https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/12203/2/Jesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdffb7ee97c0cfd1319e944be956fac2019MD52TEXTJesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdf.txtJesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain141853https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/12203/3/Jesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdf.txt485d262b90d5c60974195ac2d0456a83MD53THUMBNAILJesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdf.jpgJesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1250https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/12203/4/Jesy_Karolayne_Sales_Santos.pdf.jpg44b6d62140f72edd687a418bdc1b3828MD54riufs/122032019-10-23 19:33:43.432oai:ufs.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://ri.ufs.br/oai/requestrepositorio@academico.ufs.bropendoar:2019-10-23T22:33:43Repositório Institucional da UFS - Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe |
title |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe |
spellingShingle |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe Santos, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos Estatística e Ciências Atuariais Ensino de estatística Índice geral de criminalidade Sergipe Métodos bayesianos Distribuição espacial Evolução temporal General Criminality Index Bayesian Methods Spatial Distribution Time Evolution CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA::ANALISE MULTIVARIADA |
title_short |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe |
title_full |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe |
title_fullStr |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe |
title_sort |
Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe |
author |
Santos, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos |
author_facet |
Santos, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Xavier, Cleber Martins |
contributor_str_mv |
Xavier, Cleber Martins |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Estatística e Ciências Atuariais Ensino de estatística Índice geral de criminalidade Sergipe Métodos bayesianos Distribuição espacial Evolução temporal |
topic |
Estatística e Ciências Atuariais Ensino de estatística Índice geral de criminalidade Sergipe Métodos bayesianos Distribuição espacial Evolução temporal General Criminality Index Bayesian Methods Spatial Distribution Time Evolution CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA::ANALISE MULTIVARIADA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
General Criminality Index Bayesian Methods Spatial Distribution Time Evolution |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA::ANALISE MULTIVARIADA |
description |
Criminality is a complex phenomenon because it involves multiple factors and it is the prevalent occurrence of various attitudes that inflict the law. These actions cause a feeling of insecurity in society, harming their social welfare. In this sense, the present study treated the criminality as a multivariate phenomenon, aiming to construct a single index (IGCrime) indicating the level of crime in each of the 75 municipalities of the state of Sergipe due to the significant offenses registered between 2010 and 2018. The main offenses studied were intentional murder, Robbery with death, Robbery, Theft, Rape, intentional Bodily Injury, Threat and Assault. In a descriptive study, it was observed that the crimes of intentional Homicide, Robbery with death and Robbery evolved rapidly between these years. On the other hand, the other infractions obtained little annual variation. For a joint assessment of all offenses the general crime rate based on the Bayesian approach was used. The results of this index showed the increase in the level of crime in the state, highlighting the displacement of the highest index in the metropolitan region in 2010, to neighboring cities including the eastern and southern regions of the state, being cities of higher urban density and near to the economic center. Therefore, IGCrime is a very important tool to assess the spatial evolution of the phenomenon, as well as it provides information for future studies and contributes to public safety managers indicating the locations that are alert or not, according to the index in the nine years of analysis. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2019-10-23T22:33:43Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2019-10-23T22:33:43Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-08-30 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis |
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bachelorThesis |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SANTOS, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos. Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe. 2019. Monografia (Graduação em Estatística) – Curso de Estatística, Departamento de Estatística e Ciências Atuariais, Centro de Ciências Exatas e Tecnologia, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, 2019. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/12203 |
identifier_str_mv |
SANTOS, Jesy Karolayne Sales dos. Índice geral de criminalidade Bayesiano para o estado de Sergipe. 2019. Monografia (Graduação em Estatística) – Curso de Estatística, Departamento de Estatística e Ciências Atuariais, Centro de Ciências Exatas e Tecnologia, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, 2019. |
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Universidade Federal de Sergipe |
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DECAT - Departamento de Estatística e Ciências Atuariais – Estatística – São Cristóvão - Presencial |
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