Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Portugal, Agnaldo Cuoco
Data de Publicação: 2014
Outros Autores: Hermann, Breno
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Principia (Florianópolis. Online)
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115
Resumo: The article presents two alternative proposals for the use of probability to analyze scientific reasoning: Bayesianism and error statistics. The debate between these two approaches is one of the most important issues in contemporary Philosophy of Science and is a continuation of the well-known debate between Popper and Kuhn. The article presents the explanations offered by Bayesianism for specific phenomena of scientific activity that other approaches have difficulty in explaining, like the ravens paradox. Despite its positive results as a research program, Bayesianism has been the target of strong criticism, for instance, because it allegedly does not offer an adequate solution to Duhemt’s problem. Error Statistics in particular proposes the application of statistical methods and probability calculus to explain scientific reasoning in a way radically different from Bayesianism. The debate started by Popper and Kuhn is continued in probabilistic terms and is far from ended.
id UFSC-5_53149ad648507953b14ea9e199e3417d
oai_identifier_str oai:periodicos.ufsc.br:article/30586
network_acronym_str UFSC-5
network_name_str Principia (Florianópolis. Online)
repository_id_str
spelling Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error StatisticsRaciocínio científico e probabilidade: uma comparação entre o bayesianismo e a estatística do erroThe article presents two alternative proposals for the use of probability to analyze scientific reasoning: Bayesianism and error statistics. The debate between these two approaches is one of the most important issues in contemporary Philosophy of Science and is a continuation of the well-known debate between Popper and Kuhn. The article presents the explanations offered by Bayesianism for specific phenomena of scientific activity that other approaches have difficulty in explaining, like the ravens paradox. Despite its positive results as a research program, Bayesianism has been the target of strong criticism, for instance, because it allegedly does not offer an adequate solution to Duhemt’s problem. Error Statistics in particular proposes the application of statistical methods and probability calculus to explain scientific reasoning in a way radically different from Bayesianism. The debate started by Popper and Kuhn is continued in probabilistic terms and is far from ended.O artigo apresenta os principais elementos de dois enfoques alternativos para o uso do cálculo de probabilidades na análise do raciocínio científico: o bayesianismo e a estatística do erro. O debate entre essas correntes é um dos mais relevantes da filosofia da ciência contemporânea e constitui uma continuação do conhecido debate entre Popper e Kuhn. São apresentadas explicações do bayesianismo que outros enfoques têm dificuldade em justificar, especialmente o paradoxo dos corvos. Não obstante seus pontos positivos, o enfoque bayesiano não está imune a críticas, como a de que não soluciona adequadamente o problema de Duhem. A estatística do erro, em particular, propõe a aplicação de métodos estatísticos e do cálculo de probabilidades para explicar o raciocínio científico de forma radicalmente distinta do bayesianismo. Com isso, o debate iniciado por Popper e Kuhn tem uma continuação em termos probabilísticos e está longe de concluído.Federal University of Santa Catarina – UFSC2014-05-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/1808-1711.2014v18n1p11510.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115Principia: an international journal of epistemology; Vol. 18 No. 1 (2014); 115-134Principia: an international journal of epistemology; Vol. 18 Núm. 1 (2014); 115-134Principia: an international journal of epistemology; v. 18 n. 1 (2014); 115-1341808-17111414-4247reponame:Principia (Florianópolis. Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)instacron:UFSCporhttps://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115/27782Copyright (c) 2021 Agnaldo Cuoco Portugal, Breno Hermanninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPortugal, Agnaldo CuocoHermann, Breno2019-09-13T09:32:14Zoai:periodicos.ufsc.br:article/30586Revistahttps://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principiaPUBhttps://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/oaiprincipia@contato.ufsc.br||principia@contato.ufsc.br1808-17111414-4247opendoar:2019-09-13T09:32:14Principia (Florianópolis. Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
Raciocínio científico e probabilidade: uma comparação entre o bayesianismo e a estatística do erro
title Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
spellingShingle Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
Portugal, Agnaldo Cuoco
title_short Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
title_full Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
title_fullStr Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
title_full_unstemmed Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
title_sort Scientific reasoning and Probability: a Comparison between Bayesianism and Error Statistics
author Portugal, Agnaldo Cuoco
author_facet Portugal, Agnaldo Cuoco
Hermann, Breno
author_role author
author2 Hermann, Breno
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Portugal, Agnaldo Cuoco
Hermann, Breno
description The article presents two alternative proposals for the use of probability to analyze scientific reasoning: Bayesianism and error statistics. The debate between these two approaches is one of the most important issues in contemporary Philosophy of Science and is a continuation of the well-known debate between Popper and Kuhn. The article presents the explanations offered by Bayesianism for specific phenomena of scientific activity that other approaches have difficulty in explaining, like the ravens paradox. Despite its positive results as a research program, Bayesianism has been the target of strong criticism, for instance, because it allegedly does not offer an adequate solution to Duhemt’s problem. Error Statistics in particular proposes the application of statistical methods and probability calculus to explain scientific reasoning in a way radically different from Bayesianism. The debate started by Popper and Kuhn is continued in probabilistic terms and is far from ended.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-05-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115
10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115
url https://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115
identifier_str_mv 10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufsc.br/index.php/principia/article/view/1808-1711.2014v18n1p115/27782
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Agnaldo Cuoco Portugal, Breno Hermann
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Agnaldo Cuoco Portugal, Breno Hermann
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Federal University of Santa Catarina – UFSC
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Federal University of Santa Catarina – UFSC
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Principia: an international journal of epistemology; Vol. 18 No. 1 (2014); 115-134
Principia: an international journal of epistemology; Vol. 18 Núm. 1 (2014); 115-134
Principia: an international journal of epistemology; v. 18 n. 1 (2014); 115-134
1808-1711
1414-4247
reponame:Principia (Florianópolis. Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)
instacron:UFSC
instname_str Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)
instacron_str UFSC
institution UFSC
reponame_str Principia (Florianópolis. Online)
collection Principia (Florianópolis. Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Principia (Florianópolis. Online) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv principia@contato.ufsc.br||principia@contato.ufsc.br
_version_ 1789435112541126656

Registros relacionados