Analysis of the evolution of infant mortality rates of children residing in the state of rio grande do sul, brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Melchior, Cristiane
• Data de Publicação: 2024
• Outros Autores: Zanini, Roselaine Ruviaro, Mírian
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Saúde (Santa Maria)
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufsm.br/revistasaude/article/view/69170
• topic: Infant mortality; Child mortality; ARIMA; βARMA; Forecasting; Mortalidade infantil; Séries temporais; ARIMA; ARMA; Previsão

Objective: This study aims to highlight the main characteristics and compare the evolution of infant mortality rates in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) through the ARIMA and ARMA methodologies. Method The monthly infant mortality rates of the period of 2000 to 2017 were obtained from the Unified Health System (SUS) Department of Informatics (DATASUS). A descriptive analysis and time series modelling using the ARIMA and ARMA methodologies were carried out and discussed. Results: Cacique Doble, Alto Alegre, and São Valério do Sul were the cities of residence with the highest infant mortality rates for the state of RS in the period. Based on the residual analysis and the AIC and BIC penalizing criteria, a better quality of fit was observed in the ARMA(4,6) model. Conclusion Although the ARMA model presented better quality of fit, the accuracy measurements were lower in the SARIMA model. The proposed methodologies can guide the planning of preventive and educational policies aimed at the risk of a born alive dying during its first year of life.