Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System)
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13620 |
Resumo: | The weather forecast is a science that has gained importance in the face of a climate change scenario. Technological evolutions allow to understand and predict events related to environmental physical variables in a precise way, adding a new tool to the productive system of broiler chickens. The weather forecast allows a future view of the system, preventing losses due to the climatic vulnerability of poultry facilities. The objective of the project is to develop a weather forecast system using the WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) model, taking into account the Temperature and Humidity Index (ITU) for broiler chickens, aged between 35 to 42 days, through multiple regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, for the Maringá (PR), Dourados (MS), Piracicaba (SP), Xanxerê (SC), Joaçaba (SC) and Bento Gonçalves (RS) stations, during January to March 2017. The results demonstrate that the model responds satisfactorily to the prediction of the ITU, and that as the forecast horizon increases, the R² values decrease according to the station. The probability of success decreases from 80% in the first day to 60% on the sixth day, demonstrating that the WRF model can be used to predict ITU as a tool to mitigate environmental impacts in the production of broiler chickens. |
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2018-06-29T17:37:00Z2018-06-29T17:37:00Z2018-02-28http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13620The weather forecast is a science that has gained importance in the face of a climate change scenario. Technological evolutions allow to understand and predict events related to environmental physical variables in a precise way, adding a new tool to the productive system of broiler chickens. The weather forecast allows a future view of the system, preventing losses due to the climatic vulnerability of poultry facilities. The objective of the project is to develop a weather forecast system using the WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) model, taking into account the Temperature and Humidity Index (ITU) for broiler chickens, aged between 35 to 42 days, through multiple regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, for the Maringá (PR), Dourados (MS), Piracicaba (SP), Xanxerê (SC), Joaçaba (SC) and Bento Gonçalves (RS) stations, during January to March 2017. The results demonstrate that the model responds satisfactorily to the prediction of the ITU, and that as the forecast horizon increases, the R² values decrease according to the station. The probability of success decreases from 80% in the first day to 60% on the sixth day, demonstrating that the WRF model can be used to predict ITU as a tool to mitigate environmental impacts in the production of broiler chickens.A previsão do tempo é uma ciência que vem ganhando importância diante de um cenário de mudanças climáticas. Evoluções tecnológicas permitem entender e prever eventos relacionados a variáveis físicas ambientais de forma precisa, agregando uma nova ferramenta ao sistema produtivo de frangos de corte. A previsão do tempo permite uma visão futura do sistema, prevenindo perdas decorrentes da vulnerabilidade climática de instalações avícolas. O objetivo do estudo é desenvolver um sistema de previsão meteorológica através do modelo WRF (Weather Reseach & Forecast Modeling System), levando em consideração o Índice de Temperatura e Umidade (ITU) para frangos de corte, com idade entre 35 e 42 dias, através de análise de regressão múltipla e da simulação de Monte Carlo, para as estações de Maringá (PR), Dourados (MS), Piracicaba (SP), Xanxerê (SC), Joaçaba (SC), Passo Fundo (RS) e Bento Gonçalves (RS) no período de janeiro a março de 2016. Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo responde de forma satisfatória para a previsão do ITU, e que a medida que o horizonte de previsão aumenta, os valores de R2 diminuem, conforme a estação. A probabilidade de acerto diminui de 80% no primeiro dia até 60% no sexto dia, demonstrando que o modelo WRF pode ser utilizado na previsão do ITU, como ferramenta de mitigação de impactos ambientais na produção de frangos de corte.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de Ciências RuraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em ZootecniaUFSMBrasilZootecniaAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAnálise estocásticaAviculturaBioclimatologiaEstresse térmicoMeteorologiaStochastic analysisPoultry farmingBioclimatologyThermal stressMeteorologyCNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIADesenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System)Development of meteorological system of forestry for broiler chickens through the application of the WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisPacheco, Paulo Santanahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9700645244479913Vale, Marcos Martinez dohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5028362636820102Zanella, Irineohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7498503120935080Toledo, Geni Salete Pinto dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9529016710243647Lucca, Walterhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6341457519243415http://lattes.cnpq.br/7322520566214836Santos, João Paulo Aquino500400000002600fde023e5-5ca4-4271-918d-18cd30f702a4d3ce1fd7-d887-46b2-afe1-852369ea2bcabb861f29-864c-4cf7-9338-7b8e45acae12e90265df-3980-4f01-a256-8a201ba774da0597f726-9893-4a2a-a626-54d1178a1ced1f3b9631-a92c-4fe7-998d-1078a70d25fareponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMCC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8804http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/13620/2/license_rdfc1efe8e24d7281448e873be30ea326ffMD52ORIGINALTES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdfTES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdfTese de Doutoradoapplication/pdf1702740http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/13620/1/TES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdfbafdfcbddbd0f0685da33f4216a9f67aMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81956http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/13620/3/license.txt2f0571ecee68693bd5cd3f17c1e075dfMD53TEXTTES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdf.txtTES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain112902http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/13620/4/TES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdf.txt607793cb47bc2114285e1a8ca9b9c1e7MD54THUMBNAILTES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdf.jpgTES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg4625http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/13620/5/TES_PPGZOOTECNIA_2018_SANTOS_JOAO.pdf.jpg2e74cf75e0a486eeeb7f23b8306a5656MD551/136202018-06-29 14:37:00.36oai:repositorio.ufsm.br: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 Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2018-06-29T17:37Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Development of meteorological system of forestry for broiler chickens through the application of the WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
title |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
spellingShingle |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) Santos, João Paulo Aquino Análise estocástica Avicultura Bioclimatologia Estresse térmico Meteorologia Stochastic analysis Poultry farming Bioclimatology Thermal stress Meteorology CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIA |
title_short |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
title_full |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
title_fullStr |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
title_sort |
Desenvolvimento de sistema meteorológico de previsão para aves através da aplicação do modelo WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) |
author |
Santos, João Paulo Aquino |
author_facet |
Santos, João Paulo Aquino |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Pacheco, Paulo Santana |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9700645244479913 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Vale, Marcos Martinez do |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5028362636820102 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Zanella, Irineo |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/7498503120935080 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Toledo, Geni Salete Pinto de |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9529016710243647 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Lucca, Walter |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6341457519243415 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/7322520566214836 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, João Paulo Aquino |
contributor_str_mv |
Pacheco, Paulo Santana Vale, Marcos Martinez do Zanella, Irineo Toledo, Geni Salete Pinto de Lucca, Walter |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise estocástica Avicultura Bioclimatologia Estresse térmico Meteorologia |
topic |
Análise estocástica Avicultura Bioclimatologia Estresse térmico Meteorologia Stochastic analysis Poultry farming Bioclimatology Thermal stress Meteorology CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Stochastic analysis Poultry farming Bioclimatology Thermal stress Meteorology |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIA |
description |
The weather forecast is a science that has gained importance in the face of a climate change scenario. Technological evolutions allow to understand and predict events related to environmental physical variables in a precise way, adding a new tool to the productive system of broiler chickens. The weather forecast allows a future view of the system, preventing losses due to the climatic vulnerability of poultry facilities. The objective of the project is to develop a weather forecast system using the WRF (Weather Research & Forecast Modeling System) model, taking into account the Temperature and Humidity Index (ITU) for broiler chickens, aged between 35 to 42 days, through multiple regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, for the Maringá (PR), Dourados (MS), Piracicaba (SP), Xanxerê (SC), Joaçaba (SC) and Bento Gonçalves (RS) stations, during January to March 2017. The results demonstrate that the model responds satisfactorily to the prediction of the ITU, and that as the forecast horizon increases, the R² values decrease according to the station. The probability of success decreases from 80% in the first day to 60% on the sixth day, demonstrating that the WRF model can be used to predict ITU as a tool to mitigate environmental impacts in the production of broiler chickens. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-06-29T17:37:00Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2018-06-29T17:37:00Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018-02-28 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13620 |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13620 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
500400000002 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
600 |
dc.relation.authority.fl_str_mv |
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Rurais |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zootecnia |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFSM |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Zootecnia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Rurais |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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