APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Meira, Janeisi de Lima, Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Revista Observatório
Texto Completo: https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560
Resumo: This article is a study about the behavior and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, in the state of Tocantins, based on data reported from March 18 to June 10. A modification of the mathematical model SIR was used, in which some auxiliary compartments were added. We analyzed epidemic aspects such as the speed of the contagion curve and its impacts on the health system. As the data are made available daily, a discretization of the system of differential equations that make up the model was performed, and based on the availability of known data, we investigated the correlation between the social isolation index and the basic reproduction factor.  Through a very simple interpolation, approximate contagion rates were obtained, enabling us to evaluate the behavior of the evolution of contagion curves and those that depend on them, which allows us to anticipate scenarios based on the trend lines of the data generated, thus helping decision making public power.
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spelling APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the TocantinsAPLICACIÓN DEL MODELO SIR A LA COVID-19: distanciamiento social y (des)evolución de la pandemia en TocantinsAPLICAÇÃO DO MODELO SIR À COVID-19: distanciamento social e (des)evolução da pandemia no TocantinsCOVID-19Modelo matemático SIRÍndice de isolamento socialEstado do TocantinsCOVID-19Modelo matemático SIRÍndice de isolamento socialEstado do TocantinsThis article is a study about the behavior and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, in the state of Tocantins, based on data reported from March 18 to June 10. A modification of the mathematical model SIR was used, in which some auxiliary compartments were added. We analyzed epidemic aspects such as the speed of the contagion curve and its impacts on the health system. As the data are made available daily, a discretization of the system of differential equations that make up the model was performed, and based on the availability of known data, we investigated the correlation between the social isolation index and the basic reproduction factor.  Through a very simple interpolation, approximate contagion rates were obtained, enabling us to evaluate the behavior of the evolution of contagion curves and those that depend on them, which allows us to anticipate scenarios based on the trend lines of the data generated, thus helping decision making public power.Este artículo es un estudio sobre el comportamiento y la propagación de la pandemia de Covid-19, en el estado de Tocantins, basado en datos reportados del 18 de marzo al 10 de junio. Se utilizó una modificación del modelo matemático SIR, en el que se agregaron algunos compartimentos. Analizamos aspectos epidémicos como: la carga sobre el sistema de salud; ralentizar la curva de contagio o aplanar la curva. A medida que los datos se ponen a disposición diariamente, se realizó una discretización del sistema de ecuaciones diferenciales que componen el modelo en función de la disponibilidad de datos conocidos, con los que se generaron las tasas iniciales. Mediante una interpolación muy simple, se obtuvieron tasas de contagio aproximadas, lo que nos permitió evaluar el comportamiento de la evolución de las curvas de contagio y las que dependen de ellas, lo que nos permite anticipar escenarios basados en las líneas de tendencia de los datos generados, lo que ayuda a la toma de decisiones del poder público.Esse artigo é um estudo acerca do comportamento e propagação da pandemia de COVID-19, no estado do Tocantins, a partir dos dados notificados no período de 18 de março a 10 de junho. Para tanto, utilizou-se uma modificação do modelo matemático SIR, no qual foram acrescentados alguns compartimentos auxiliares. Analisamos aspectos epidêmicos tal como a velocidade da curva de contágio e seus impactos no sistema de saúde. Como os dados são disponibilizados diariamente, foi realizada uma discretização do sistema de equações diferenciais que compõem o modelo e a partir da disponibilidade dos dados conhecidos investigamos a correlação entre o índice de isolamento social e o fator de reprodução básico. Através de uma interpolação bastante simples obteve-se taxas de contágio aproximadas propiciando avaliar o comportamento da evolução das curvas de contágio e daquelas que dependem delas, o que nos possibilita antecipar cenários com base nas linhas de tendência dos dados gerados auxiliando assim as tomadas de decisões do poder público.Universidade Federal do Tocantins - UFT2020-05-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/1056010.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3a16ptObservatory Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16ptObservatorio Magazine; Vol. 6 Núm. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16ptObservatoire Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16ptRevista Observatório ; v. 6 n. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt2447-426610.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3reponame:Revista Observatórioinstname:Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)instacron:UFTporhttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17536https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17520Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Observatórioinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa Meira, Janeisi de Lima Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel2022-03-04T13:02:02Zoai:ojs.revista.uft.edu.br:article/10560Revistahttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/indexPUBhttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/oaigilsonportouft@gmail.com||gilsonporto@uft.edu.br||2447-42662447-4266opendoar:2022-03-04T13:02:02Revista Observatório - Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
APLICACIÓN DEL MODELO SIR A LA COVID-19: distanciamiento social y (des)evolución de la pandemia en Tocantins
APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO SIR À COVID-19: distanciamento social e (des)evolução da pandemia no Tocantins
title APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
spellingShingle APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa
COVID-19
Modelo matemático SIR
Índice de isolamento social
Estado do Tocantins
COVID-19
Modelo matemático SIR
Índice de isolamento social
Estado do Tocantins
title_short APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
title_full APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
title_fullStr APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
title_full_unstemmed APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
title_sort APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
author Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa
author_facet Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa
Meira, Janeisi de Lima
Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel
author_role author
author2 Meira, Janeisi de Lima
Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa
Meira, Janeisi de Lima
Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Modelo matemático SIR
Índice de isolamento social
Estado do Tocantins
COVID-19
Modelo matemático SIR
Índice de isolamento social
Estado do Tocantins
topic COVID-19
Modelo matemático SIR
Índice de isolamento social
Estado do Tocantins
COVID-19
Modelo matemático SIR
Índice de isolamento social
Estado do Tocantins
description This article is a study about the behavior and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, in the state of Tocantins, based on data reported from March 18 to June 10. A modification of the mathematical model SIR was used, in which some auxiliary compartments were added. We analyzed epidemic aspects such as the speed of the contagion curve and its impacts on the health system. As the data are made available daily, a discretization of the system of differential equations that make up the model was performed, and based on the availability of known data, we investigated the correlation between the social isolation index and the basic reproduction factor.  Through a very simple interpolation, approximate contagion rates were obtained, enabling us to evaluate the behavior of the evolution of contagion curves and those that depend on them, which allows us to anticipate scenarios based on the trend lines of the data generated, thus helping decision making public power.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560
10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3a16pt
url https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560
identifier_str_mv 10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3a16pt
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17536
https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17520
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Observatório
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Observatório
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Tocantins - UFT
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Tocantins - UFT
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Observatory Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt
Observatorio Magazine; Vol. 6 Núm. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt
Observatoire Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt
Revista Observatório ; v. 6 n. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt
2447-4266
10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3
reponame:Revista Observatório
instname:Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)
instacron:UFT
instname_str Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)
instacron_str UFT
institution UFT
reponame_str Revista Observatório
collection Revista Observatório
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista Observatório - Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv gilsonportouft@gmail.com||gilsonporto@uft.edu.br||
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