APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Revista Observatório |
Texto Completo: | https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560 |
Resumo: | This article is a study about the behavior and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, in the state of Tocantins, based on data reported from March 18 to June 10. A modification of the mathematical model SIR was used, in which some auxiliary compartments were added. We analyzed epidemic aspects such as the speed of the contagion curve and its impacts on the health system. As the data are made available daily, a discretization of the system of differential equations that make up the model was performed, and based on the availability of known data, we investigated the correlation between the social isolation index and the basic reproduction factor. Through a very simple interpolation, approximate contagion rates were obtained, enabling us to evaluate the behavior of the evolution of contagion curves and those that depend on them, which allows us to anticipate scenarios based on the trend lines of the data generated, thus helping decision making public power. |
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APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the TocantinsAPLICACIÓN DEL MODELO SIR A LA COVID-19: distanciamiento social y (des)evolución de la pandemia en TocantinsAPLICAÇÃO DO MODELO SIR À COVID-19: distanciamento social e (des)evolução da pandemia no TocantinsCOVID-19Modelo matemático SIRÍndice de isolamento socialEstado do TocantinsCOVID-19Modelo matemático SIRÍndice de isolamento socialEstado do TocantinsThis article is a study about the behavior and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, in the state of Tocantins, based on data reported from March 18 to June 10. A modification of the mathematical model SIR was used, in which some auxiliary compartments were added. We analyzed epidemic aspects such as the speed of the contagion curve and its impacts on the health system. As the data are made available daily, a discretization of the system of differential equations that make up the model was performed, and based on the availability of known data, we investigated the correlation between the social isolation index and the basic reproduction factor. Through a very simple interpolation, approximate contagion rates were obtained, enabling us to evaluate the behavior of the evolution of contagion curves and those that depend on them, which allows us to anticipate scenarios based on the trend lines of the data generated, thus helping decision making public power.Este artículo es un estudio sobre el comportamiento y la propagación de la pandemia de Covid-19, en el estado de Tocantins, basado en datos reportados del 18 de marzo al 10 de junio. Se utilizó una modificación del modelo matemático SIR, en el que se agregaron algunos compartimentos. Analizamos aspectos epidémicos como: la carga sobre el sistema de salud; ralentizar la curva de contagio o aplanar la curva. A medida que los datos se ponen a disposición diariamente, se realizó una discretización del sistema de ecuaciones diferenciales que componen el modelo en función de la disponibilidad de datos conocidos, con los que se generaron las tasas iniciales. Mediante una interpolación muy simple, se obtuvieron tasas de contagio aproximadas, lo que nos permitió evaluar el comportamiento de la evolución de las curvas de contagio y las que dependen de ellas, lo que nos permite anticipar escenarios basados en las líneas de tendencia de los datos generados, lo que ayuda a la toma de decisiones del poder público.Esse artigo é um estudo acerca do comportamento e propagação da pandemia de COVID-19, no estado do Tocantins, a partir dos dados notificados no período de 18 de março a 10 de junho. Para tanto, utilizou-se uma modificação do modelo matemático SIR, no qual foram acrescentados alguns compartimentos auxiliares. Analisamos aspectos epidêmicos tal como a velocidade da curva de contágio e seus impactos no sistema de saúde. Como os dados são disponibilizados diariamente, foi realizada uma discretização do sistema de equações diferenciais que compõem o modelo e a partir da disponibilidade dos dados conhecidos investigamos a correlação entre o índice de isolamento social e o fator de reprodução básico. Através de uma interpolação bastante simples obteve-se taxas de contágio aproximadas propiciando avaliar o comportamento da evolução das curvas de contágio e daquelas que dependem delas, o que nos possibilita antecipar cenários com base nas linhas de tendência dos dados gerados auxiliando assim as tomadas de decisões do poder público.Universidade Federal do Tocantins - UFT2020-05-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/1056010.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3a16ptObservatory Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16ptObservatorio Magazine; Vol. 6 Núm. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16ptObservatoire Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16ptRevista Observatório ; v. 6 n. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt2447-426610.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3reponame:Revista Observatórioinstname:Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)instacron:UFTporhttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17536https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17520Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Observatórioinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa Meira, Janeisi de Lima Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel2022-03-04T13:02:02Zoai:ojs.revista.uft.edu.br:article/10560Revistahttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/indexPUBhttps://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/oaigilsonportouft@gmail.com||gilsonporto@uft.edu.br||2447-42662447-4266opendoar:2022-03-04T13:02:02Revista Observatório - Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins APLICACIÓN DEL MODELO SIR A LA COVID-19: distanciamiento social y (des)evolución de la pandemia en Tocantins APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO SIR À COVID-19: distanciamento social e (des)evolução da pandemia no Tocantins |
title |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins |
spellingShingle |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa COVID-19 Modelo matemático SIR Índice de isolamento social Estado do Tocantins COVID-19 Modelo matemático SIR Índice de isolamento social Estado do Tocantins |
title_short |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins |
title_full |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins |
title_fullStr |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins |
title_full_unstemmed |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins |
title_sort |
APPLICATION OF THE SIR MODEL TO COVID-19: social distance and (no-)evolution of the pandemic in state of the Tocantins |
author |
Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa |
author_facet |
Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa Meira, Janeisi de Lima Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Meira, Janeisi de Lima Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Mesquita, Élis Gardel da Costa Meira, Janeisi de Lima Dias Neto, José de Ribamar Leonel |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Modelo matemático SIR Índice de isolamento social Estado do Tocantins COVID-19 Modelo matemático SIR Índice de isolamento social Estado do Tocantins |
topic |
COVID-19 Modelo matemático SIR Índice de isolamento social Estado do Tocantins COVID-19 Modelo matemático SIR Índice de isolamento social Estado do Tocantins |
description |
This article is a study about the behavior and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, in the state of Tocantins, based on data reported from March 18 to June 10. A modification of the mathematical model SIR was used, in which some auxiliary compartments were added. We analyzed epidemic aspects such as the speed of the contagion curve and its impacts on the health system. As the data are made available daily, a discretization of the system of differential equations that make up the model was performed, and based on the availability of known data, we investigated the correlation between the social isolation index and the basic reproduction factor. Through a very simple interpolation, approximate contagion rates were obtained, enabling us to evaluate the behavior of the evolution of contagion curves and those that depend on them, which allows us to anticipate scenarios based on the trend lines of the data generated, thus helping decision making public power. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560 10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3a16pt |
url |
https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3a16pt |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17536 https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10560/17520 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Observatório info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Revista Observatório |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Tocantins - UFT |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Tocantins - UFT |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Observatory Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt Observatorio Magazine; Vol. 6 Núm. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt Observatoire Journal; Vol. 6 No. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt Revista Observatório ; v. 6 n. 3 (2020): v. 6 n. 3 (2020): Human and Social Sciences against Covid-19 / Ciências Humanas e Sociais no enfrentamento da COVID-19; a16pt 2447-4266 10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2020v6n3 reponame:Revista Observatório instname:Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT) instacron:UFT |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT) |
instacron_str |
UFT |
institution |
UFT |
reponame_str |
Revista Observatório |
collection |
Revista Observatório |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Observatório - Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
gilsonportouft@gmail.com||gilsonporto@uft.edu.br|| |
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1797174757548883968 |