Transição Demográfica e o Regime Geral da Previdência Social no Brasil

• Autor(a) principal: de Jesus, Cleiton Silva
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Economia Ensaios
• Texto Completo: https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/revistaeconomiaensaios/article/view/44272

The Brazilian population is rapidly aging and currently most of the country's primary expenditure is directed to the public pension system. The pension expenditures in relation to the total primary expenditure has grown over the last decades, and without changes in the current social security rules, there is no sign of change to this trend. This article aims to estimate a fiscal reaction adapted to the social security data and to present an overview of the population dynamics in Brazil. We used quarterly data from 1998 to 2018 to estimate the econometric model. The main results obtained in our estimates suggest that the General Social Security System (RGPS) deficit has an explosive trajectory since the current pension deficit is statistically associated with the lagged value of the pension debt. If our results are correct, the rules of the social security system in Brazil should be urgently changed.