Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Coutinho, Priscila Esposte
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Cataldi, Marcio
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Engenharia na Agricultura
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641
Resumo: In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have led to alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that account the impact of climate change on water availability, therefore, are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, in addition to being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation, which makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this work, a flow analysis for the São Francisco river basin is carried out up to the year 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth’s Assessment Report (AR5). Projections of future flow were made for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the rain-flow model SMAP, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, it was observed that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.
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spelling Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenariosAssessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenariosRainfall-runoff modelingSMAP CCSM4 IPCC Climate modelsRainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCCIn the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have led to alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that account the impact of climate change on water availability, therefore, are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, in addition to being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation, which makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this work, a flow analysis for the São Francisco river basin is carried out up to the year 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth’s Assessment Report (AR5). Projections of future flow were made for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the rain-flow model SMAP, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, it was observed that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have resulted in alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account the impact of climate change on water availability are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this study, a flow analysis for the head of the São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 and 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections of future flow were performed for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the SMAP rain-flow model, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, we can observe that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV2021-07-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/1164110.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641Engineering in Agriculture; Vol. 29 No. Contínua (2021); 107-121Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - REVENG; v. 29 n. Contínua (2021); 107-1212175-68131414-3984reponame:Engenharia na Agriculturainstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVenghttps://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641/6766Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - Revenghttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCoutinho, Priscila EsposteCataldi, Marcio 2023-01-23T14:06:01Zoai:ojs.periodicos.ufv.br:article/11641Revistahttps://periodicos.ufv.br/revengPUBhttps://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/oairevistaengenharianagricultura@gmail.com||andrerosa@ufv.br||tramitacao.reveng@gmail.com|| reveng@ufv.br2175-68131414-3984opendoar:2023-01-23T14:06:01Engenharia na Agricultura - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
title Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
spellingShingle Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
Coutinho, Priscila Esposte
Rainfall-runoff modeling
SMAP
CCSM4
IPCC
Climate models
Rainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCC
title_short Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
title_full Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
title_fullStr Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
title_sort Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
author Coutinho, Priscila Esposte
author_facet Coutinho, Priscila Esposte
Cataldi, Marcio
author_role author
author2 Cataldi, Marcio
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Coutinho, Priscila Esposte
Cataldi, Marcio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Rainfall-runoff modeling
SMAP
CCSM4
IPCC
Climate models
Rainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCC
topic Rainfall-runoff modeling
SMAP
CCSM4
IPCC
Climate models
Rainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCC
description In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have led to alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that account the impact of climate change on water availability, therefore, are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, in addition to being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation, which makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this work, a flow analysis for the São Francisco river basin is carried out up to the year 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth’s Assessment Report (AR5). Projections of future flow were made for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the rain-flow model SMAP, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, it was observed that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07-12
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641
10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641
url https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641
identifier_str_mv 10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641/6766
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - Reveng
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - Reveng
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Engineering in Agriculture; Vol. 29 No. Contínua (2021); 107-121
Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - REVENG; v. 29 n. Contínua (2021); 107-121
2175-6813
1414-3984
reponame:Engenharia na Agricultura
instname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)
instacron:UFV
instname_str Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)
instacron_str UFV
institution UFV
reponame_str Engenharia na Agricultura
collection Engenharia na Agricultura
repository.name.fl_str_mv Engenharia na Agricultura - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv revistaengenharianagricultura@gmail.com||andrerosa@ufv.br||tramitacao.reveng@gmail.com|| reveng@ufv.br
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