Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Engenharia na Agricultura |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641 |
Resumo: | In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have led to alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that account the impact of climate change on water availability, therefore, are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, in addition to being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation, which makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this work, a flow analysis for the São Francisco river basin is carried out up to the year 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth’s Assessment Report (AR5). Projections of future flow were made for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the rain-flow model SMAP, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, it was observed that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin. |
id |
UFV-2_6cd05b6e4287893f272ad2847690c146 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ojs.periodicos.ufv.br:article/11641 |
network_acronym_str |
UFV-2 |
network_name_str |
Engenharia na Agricultura |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenariosAssessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenariosRainfall-runoff modelingSMAP CCSM4 IPCC Climate modelsRainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCCIn the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have led to alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that account the impact of climate change on water availability, therefore, are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, in addition to being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation, which makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this work, a flow analysis for the São Francisco river basin is carried out up to the year 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth’s Assessment Report (AR5). Projections of future flow were made for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the rain-flow model SMAP, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, it was observed that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have resulted in alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account the impact of climate change on water availability are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this study, a flow analysis for the head of the São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 and 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections of future flow were performed for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the SMAP rain-flow model, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, we can observe that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV2021-07-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/1164110.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641Engineering in Agriculture; Vol. 29 No. Contínua (2021); 107-121Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - REVENG; v. 29 n. Contínua (2021); 107-1212175-68131414-3984reponame:Engenharia na Agriculturainstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVenghttps://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641/6766Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - Revenghttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCoutinho, Priscila EsposteCataldi, Marcio 2023-01-23T14:06:01Zoai:ojs.periodicos.ufv.br:article/11641Revistahttps://periodicos.ufv.br/revengPUBhttps://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/oairevistaengenharianagricultura@gmail.com||andrerosa@ufv.br||tramitacao.reveng@gmail.com|| reveng@ufv.br2175-68131414-3984opendoar:2023-01-23T14:06:01Engenharia na Agricultura - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios |
title |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios |
spellingShingle |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios Coutinho, Priscila Esposte Rainfall-runoff modeling SMAP CCSM4 IPCC Climate models Rainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCC |
title_short |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios |
title_full |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios |
title_sort |
Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios |
author |
Coutinho, Priscila Esposte |
author_facet |
Coutinho, Priscila Esposte Cataldi, Marcio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cataldi, Marcio |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Coutinho, Priscila Esposte Cataldi, Marcio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Rainfall-runoff modeling SMAP CCSM4 IPCC Climate models Rainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCC |
topic |
Rainfall-runoff modeling SMAP CCSM4 IPCC Climate models Rainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCC |
description |
In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have led to alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that account the impact of climate change on water availability, therefore, are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, in addition to being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation, which makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this work, a flow analysis for the São Francisco river basin is carried out up to the year 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth’s Assessment Report (AR5). Projections of future flow were made for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the rain-flow model SMAP, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, it was observed that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-07-12 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641 10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641 |
url |
https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ufv.br/reveng/article/view/11641/6766 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - Reveng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - Reveng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Engineering in Agriculture; Vol. 29 No. Contínua (2021); 107-121 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - REVENG; v. 29 n. Contínua (2021); 107-121 2175-6813 1414-3984 reponame:Engenharia na Agricultura instname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) instacron:UFV |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) |
instacron_str |
UFV |
institution |
UFV |
reponame_str |
Engenharia na Agricultura |
collection |
Engenharia na Agricultura |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Engenharia na Agricultura - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
revistaengenharianagricultura@gmail.com||andrerosa@ufv.br||tramitacao.reveng@gmail.com|| reveng@ufv.br |
_version_ |
1800211147096326144 |