Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2009 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV |
Texto Completo: | http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/121 |
Resumo: | The pork chain, despite showing significant technical improvement and competitiveness, is still one of the most volatile sectors of Brazilian agribusiness, and marketing and price fluctuation is one of the main barriers for its development. Accordingly, the present study aimed to analyze the price ratios and volatility among production agents and major meat markets. To do this, the study was based on a price transmission model between levels of market leadership with the wholesale price and the model of price integration between markets, using Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (M-GARCH) as the analyzing method. Based on these multivariate models of time series, the causality tests were carried out and the contemporary relationship matrices were obtained, the decompositions of forecast error variance, the impulse- response functions and the possible spread of instability by conditional volatility of the price series of pork was analyzed. Thus, we analyzed the formation of pork prices and volatility levels of the market in the states of Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo and between these regions and meat prices in the international market. It was found that the production price was an important transmitter of changes in market prices of Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais and that bulk prices had a greater influence in the prices of meat in the Sao Paulo market. It was also noted that meat prices were more unstable at the producer level in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and the wholesale level, in Sao Paulo. When analyzing the transmission of prices between locations, prices in Santa Catarina had the greatest impact on the dynamics of price series in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo with prices from Santa Catarina and the international market showing more instability, although transmission of volatility between locations was not detected. Additionally, there were higher levels of variability in the prices of pork in periods with cases of FMD. Thus, it is expected that the public and private policies aimed to contribute to the harmonization and development of the pork farmers are especially on the sources of instability in the sector, as the occurrence of livestock diseases, the stability of the corn market and soybeans, the expansion of domestic consumption of meat and the diversification of foreign market importers of the product. The results show that the intervention actions, when carried out on prices, should occur at price levels received by producers in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and levels of wholesale prices in Sao Paulo, since the prices in those segments proved to be influential on other links in the chain. Additionally, the actions will have better results when interventions occur in the Santa Catarina market, since this region was presented as the main national market prices determiner.Thus, there will be a more dynamic flow of information between agents, with a reduction in public and private spending, which will make the activity more attractive. In this sense, this work contributes to a better understanding of the formation of prices of pork and its instability and formation of more effective agricultural policies. |
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Arêdes, Alan Figueiredo dehttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4779695E3Gomes, Marília Fernandes Macielhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780074U1Lima, João Eustáquio dehttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783228J6Santos, Maurinho Luiz doshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783108H7Reis, Brício dos Santoshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4761466Z0Rosado, Patrícia Lopeshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4723673T4Rufino, José Luís dos Santoshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780382T02015-03-19T19:35:05Z2011-03-282015-03-19T19:35:05Z2009-12-16ARÊDES, Alan Figueiredo de. Transmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of pork. 2009. 179 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2009.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/121The pork chain, despite showing significant technical improvement and competitiveness, is still one of the most volatile sectors of Brazilian agribusiness, and marketing and price fluctuation is one of the main barriers for its development. Accordingly, the present study aimed to analyze the price ratios and volatility among production agents and major meat markets. To do this, the study was based on a price transmission model between levels of market leadership with the wholesale price and the model of price integration between markets, using Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (M-GARCH) as the analyzing method. Based on these multivariate models of time series, the causality tests were carried out and the contemporary relationship matrices were obtained, the decompositions of forecast error variance, the impulse- response functions and the possible spread of instability by conditional volatility of the price series of pork was analyzed. Thus, we analyzed the formation of pork prices and volatility levels of the market in the states of Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo and between these regions and meat prices in the international market. It was found that the production price was an important transmitter of changes in market prices of Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais and that bulk prices had a greater influence in the prices of meat in the Sao Paulo market. It was also noted that meat prices were more unstable at the producer level in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and the wholesale level, in Sao Paulo. When analyzing the transmission of prices between locations, prices in Santa Catarina had the greatest impact on the dynamics of price series in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo with prices from Santa Catarina and the international market showing more instability, although transmission of volatility between locations was not detected. Additionally, there were higher levels of variability in the prices of pork in periods with cases of FMD. Thus, it is expected that the public and private policies aimed to contribute to the harmonization and development of the pork farmers are especially on the sources of instability in the sector, as the occurrence of livestock diseases, the stability of the corn market and soybeans, the expansion of domestic consumption of meat and the diversification of foreign market importers of the product. The results show that the intervention actions, when carried out on prices, should occur at price levels received by producers in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and levels of wholesale prices in Sao Paulo, since the prices in those segments proved to be influential on other links in the chain. Additionally, the actions will have better results when interventions occur in the Santa Catarina market, since this region was presented as the main national market prices determiner.Thus, there will be a more dynamic flow of information between agents, with a reduction in public and private spending, which will make the activity more attractive. In this sense, this work contributes to a better understanding of the formation of prices of pork and its instability and formation of more effective agricultural policies.A cadeia da carne suína, apesar de apresentar significativo aprimoramento técnico e competitivo, é ainda um dos setores mais instáveis do agronegócio nacional, sendo a comercialização e oscilação dos preços um dos principais entraves ao seu desenvolvimento. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo analisar as relações de transmissão dos preços e de sua volatilidade entre os agentes da cadeia produtiva da carne suína e entre os principais mercados dessa carne. Para isso, o trabalho baseou-se em um modelo de transmissão de preços entre níveis de mercado com liderança de preços do atacado e no modelo de integração de preços entre mercados, tendo utilizado como método nas análises o Vector Autoregression (VAR) e o Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (M-GARCH). Com base nesses modelos multivariados de séries temporais, realizaram-se os testes de causalidade e obtiveram-se as matrizes de relações contemporâneas, as decomposições das variâncias do erro de previsão, as funções impulsoresposta e analisou-se o possível contágio de instabilidade por volatilidade condicional entre as séries de preços da carne suína. Assim, foi analisada a formação de preços da carne suína e de sua volatilidade nos níveis de mercado nos Estados de Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais e São Paulo e entre essas regiões e o preço da carne no mercado internacional. Constatou-se que o preço ao produtor foi importante transmissor das variações de preços nos mercados catarinense e mineiro e que o preço ao atacado apresentou-se com maior influência nas variações dos preços da carne no mercado paulista. Verificou-se também que os preços da carne foram mais instáveis em nível do produtor em Santa Catarina e em Minas Gerais e, em nível do atacado, em São Paulo. Quando analisada a transmissão dos preços entre as localidades, os preços catarinenses tiveram maior impacto sobre a dinâmica das séries de preços mineira e paulista, tendo o preço catarinense e no mercado internacional apresentado maior instabilidade, embora não tenha sido detectada transmissão de volatilidade dos preços entre localidades. Adicionalmente, verificaram-se maiores níveis de variabilidade dos preços da carne suína em períodos com casos de febre aftosa. Dessa forma, espera-se que políticas públicas e privadas que visem contribuir para a harmonização e o desenvolvimento do setor da carne suína devem agir especialmente sobre as fontes de instabilidade do setor, como na ocorrência de enfermidades do rebanhado, na estabilidade do mercado de milho e soja, na ampliação do consumo doméstico da carne e na diversificação dos mercados externos importadores do produto. Os resultados mostram que as ações de intervenção, quando realizadas sobre os preços, devem ocorrer nos níveis dos preços recebidos pelos produtores em Santa Catarina e em Minas Gerais, e aos níveis de preços ao atacado em São Paulo, uma vez que os preços nesses segmentos mostraram-se influentes sobre os demais elos da cadeia. Adicionalmente, as ações terão melhores resultados quando as intervenções ocorrerem no mercado catarinense, visto que essa região apresentou-se como principal mercado nacional formador de preços. Assim, ocorrerá melhor dinamização do fluxo de informação entre os agentes, com redução dos gastos públicos e privado, o que tornará a atividade mais atrativa. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho contribui para o melhor conhecimento da formação dos preços da carne suína e de sua instabilidade e para a formulação de políticas agrícolas mais eficazes.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológicoapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaDoutorado em Economia AplicadaUFVBREconomia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos RecursosFormação de preçoCausalidadeSegmentos de mercadoPricingCausalityMarket segmentsCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS::ECONOMIA AGRARIATransmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suínaTransmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of porkinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf949191https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/121/1/texto%20completo.pdf5053e2699b7673a13b915df588b7f30bMD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain374691https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/121/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt43d1b697c64893cbd1200f3c0c2f292fMD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3639https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/121/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg1e05b1f32e20d3fb4c2b92a2e4867d37MD53123456789/1212016-04-06 08:00:26.283oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/121Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-06T11:00:26LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Transmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of pork |
title |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína |
spellingShingle |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína Arêdes, Alan Figueiredo de Formação de preço Causalidade Segmentos de mercado Pricing Causality Market segments CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS::ECONOMIA AGRARIA |
title_short |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína |
title_full |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína |
title_fullStr |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína |
title_sort |
Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína |
author |
Arêdes, Alan Figueiredo de |
author_facet |
Arêdes, Alan Figueiredo de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4779695E3 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Arêdes, Alan Figueiredo de |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780074U1 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv |
Lima, João Eustáquio de |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783228J6 |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783108H7 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Reis, Brício dos Santos |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4761466Z0 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Rosado, Patrícia Lopes |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4723673T4 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Rufino, José Luís dos Santos |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4780382T0 |
contributor_str_mv |
Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel Lima, João Eustáquio de Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos Reis, Brício dos Santos Rosado, Patrícia Lopes Rufino, José Luís dos Santos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Formação de preço Causalidade Segmentos de mercado |
topic |
Formação de preço Causalidade Segmentos de mercado Pricing Causality Market segments CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS::ECONOMIA AGRARIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Pricing Causality Market segments |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS::ECONOMIA AGRARIA |
description |
The pork chain, despite showing significant technical improvement and competitiveness, is still one of the most volatile sectors of Brazilian agribusiness, and marketing and price fluctuation is one of the main barriers for its development. Accordingly, the present study aimed to analyze the price ratios and volatility among production agents and major meat markets. To do this, the study was based on a price transmission model between levels of market leadership with the wholesale price and the model of price integration between markets, using Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (M-GARCH) as the analyzing method. Based on these multivariate models of time series, the causality tests were carried out and the contemporary relationship matrices were obtained, the decompositions of forecast error variance, the impulse- response functions and the possible spread of instability by conditional volatility of the price series of pork was analyzed. Thus, we analyzed the formation of pork prices and volatility levels of the market in the states of Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo and between these regions and meat prices in the international market. It was found that the production price was an important transmitter of changes in market prices of Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais and that bulk prices had a greater influence in the prices of meat in the Sao Paulo market. It was also noted that meat prices were more unstable at the producer level in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and the wholesale level, in Sao Paulo. When analyzing the transmission of prices between locations, prices in Santa Catarina had the greatest impact on the dynamics of price series in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo with prices from Santa Catarina and the international market showing more instability, although transmission of volatility between locations was not detected. Additionally, there were higher levels of variability in the prices of pork in periods with cases of FMD. Thus, it is expected that the public and private policies aimed to contribute to the harmonization and development of the pork farmers are especially on the sources of instability in the sector, as the occurrence of livestock diseases, the stability of the corn market and soybeans, the expansion of domestic consumption of meat and the diversification of foreign market importers of the product. The results show that the intervention actions, when carried out on prices, should occur at price levels received by producers in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and levels of wholesale prices in Sao Paulo, since the prices in those segments proved to be influential on other links in the chain. Additionally, the actions will have better results when interventions occur in the Santa Catarina market, since this region was presented as the main national market prices determiner.Thus, there will be a more dynamic flow of information between agents, with a reduction in public and private spending, which will make the activity more attractive. In this sense, this work contributes to a better understanding of the formation of prices of pork and its instability and formation of more effective agricultural policies. |
publishDate |
2009 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2009-12-16 |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2011-03-28 2015-03-19T19:35:05Z |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-03-19T19:35:05Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
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doctoralThesis |
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
ARÊDES, Alan Figueiredo de. Transmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of pork. 2009. 179 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2009. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/121 |
identifier_str_mv |
ARÊDES, Alan Figueiredo de. Transmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of pork. 2009. 179 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2009. |
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http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/121 |
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por |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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Doutorado em Economia Aplicada |
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UFV |
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BR |
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Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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