A demanda de alimentos no Brasil, 2002/2003

• Autor(a) principal: Coelho, Alexandre Bragança
• Data de Publicação: 2006
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/136
• topic: Demanda de alimentos; orçamento familiar; econometria; Food supply; econometrics; family budget; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::METODOS QUANTITATIVOS EM ECONOMIA::METODOS E MODELOS MATEMATICOS, ECONOMETRICOS E ESTATISTICOS

Food demand in Brazil has undergone major changes in the last few decades caused by structural changes, such as urbanization, changes in demographics and increase in women participation in the labor force, so it s important to know families consumption patterns thoroughly in order to enhance government policies and to help agricultural and food industry decision makers. Nevertheless, Brazilian literature in demand analysis field has been lacking studies which are rigorous and complete. Thus, this study objective is to estimate a demand system including eighteen food products using POF 2002/2003 data. POF 2002/2003 is the Brazilian household survey and it allowed the construction of prices for each product and family and enabled heterogeneity accounting. The functional form used was Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS), which is flexible, has non-linear Engel curves and it is derived from a preference structure. The approach to estimation was Shonkwiler and Yen Procedure. This is a two-step estimation procedure to deal with censored dependent variables. Within the first step (purchase decisions), consumer decisions determinants on whether to buy or not a product are estimated. In the second step, first step results are used to correct the estimation. First step estimation results were according to expectations. Purchase probabilities of staples foods were negative related to family monthly income, while meat, milk and other products showed a positive relation. Regional, educational and urbanization variables were also important in the first stage. Second stage results were more problematic than the first ones. Two specifications were used: the first, using food expenditure and the second, using family monthly income. In the former, staple foods expenditure elasticities were very high. In the latter, income elasticities were more reasonable, although an increase in the number of not significant coefficients happened at the same time. Generally, in the second specification, there was a predominance of normal goods and there was no inferior good. Prime cut beef, banana, cheese and powder milk were found to be superior goods. Compensated and non compensated price elasticities were above expectation, with staple food having elastic responses. Concerning the heterogeneity variables, family composition, family size, refrigerator ownership and education of the family head were the most important in the system. Families with children consume more milk and it was found a negative relation between consumption of staple foods and education.