Fluxos passados e potencial de comércio internacional do Brasil por setores, 2000 a 2011

• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Elizama do Nascimento
• Data de Publicação: 2013
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/83
• topic: Modelo gravitacional; Potencial de comércio; Exportações; Gravity model; Potential for trade; Exports; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL

Growth and economic development is directly related to international trade. International trade increases the variety of products available to countries, as well efficiencies, economies of scale, competition and consequent price reduction. The knowledge of factors associated with international trade helps the expansion of trade flows and creation of new consumers. Several factors influence the trade among countries: the level of productivity in each exporting country; the existing comparative advantages in production; the proportion of employed production factors; the presence of economies of scale; the absence or existence of trade barriers; and flows past trade, since the international trade is a dynamic process. These factors are relevant in determining international trade and are important in defining the potential of trade among nations. The potential trade allows us to observe the level of market integration, the existence of trade "untapped" and the possibility of adopting trade policies to expand the trade. In this sense, the aim of this work was investigate the determinants of Brazil s international trade and identify the potential trade for the sectors under analysis: basic, manufactured and semi-manufactured for the period 2000-2011. The specifics objectives were: a) evaluate the main factors that affect unilateral trade between Brazil and its main partners, mainly the past international flows; b) Identify, through the index of the potential trade, which sectors and countries it is possible for Brazil to expand their international trade. The research used the international trade and the gravity model theory. The dynamic panel data, as proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998), was estimated and the potential trade was calculated by sectors to get the research objectives. The variables included in the dynamic panel model were: export flows from the previous year, GDP from importing country, Brazil's GDP, exchange rate of the importing country, the exchange rate of Brazil, dummy for crisis, ad valorem tariff, and distance. The results for the sectors of commodities, manufactured and semi-manufactured, indicated that Brazilian income and the income of the importing country are strong determinants of exports. Also show that exports past confirm the hypothesis that trade follows a dynamic process, and that the lags of exports of the three sectors positively influence exports present. The results for the trade potential indicated that Brazil gets succeeds in commercial partnership for the commodity sector. To sectors of manufactured and semi-manufactured products there is a potential trade to be "exploited" by many countries, indicating a need for greater trade integration. We conclude that there is a need for specific trade policies for the sectors of manufactured and semimanufactured products, in order to encourage the creation of new technologies in production and innovation, as well as policies that contribute to reducing taxes to stimulate growth and competitiveness in the sector industrial. Moreover, is necessary a fiscal policy to reducing the rate of interest, in order to encourage investment in production and improving productivity and competitiveness.