Efeitos da crise internacional sobre as exportações brasileiras de produtos básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados, 2000 a 2011

• Autor(a) principal: Batalha, Camila Maria Soares
• Data de Publicação: 2013
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/86
• topic: Crise internacional; Exportações brasileiras; Modelo Gravitacional; International crisis; Brazilian exports; Gravity model; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL

The international financial crisis, which began in the high-risk American mortgage market in mid-May, 2007, expanded to a global and systemic crisis, spreading in different forms and degrees throughout the world economy. As a consequence, the financial crisis interrupted a trajectory of growth of global trade flows, which reflected and retro fed the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) until 2008 and had impact in the countries at different times. In Brazil, the international financial crisis interrupted the growth cycle of the foreign trade. It spread to the real side of the economy by means of various transmissions, financial and real channels. Therefore, designing the future of Brazilian exports does not depend only on the domestic situation of the country but on the market behavior and on the international economical scenery instead, inasmuch as the countries affected by the crisis responded for a significant portion of the Brazilian exports. Thus, the higher the degree of financial openness, the higher the vulnerability of peripheral economies to sudden changes in the moods of foreign investors, which sometimes cause sharp and tragic volatilities of their primary financial variables. Given this context, and in view of the integration of economies and spread of the crisis over the nations, the present work focused on evaluating the impacts of the international crisis on the Brazilian exports of basic, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods to major trading partners in the period from 200 to 2011. The theoretical reference was based on the theories of international trade and the gravity model. As methodological procedure, three gravitational equations were estimated by the method of fixed effects by ordinary least squares (OLS) considering the Brazilian exports of commodityes, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods to the major trading partners from 2000 to 2011. To achieve the objectives of the present study, estimations of a gravity equation were carried out using the fixed effect method by the ordinary least squares (OLS) considering the Brazilian exports of semi-manufactured and manufactured basic products for the major trading partners from 2000 to 2011. The level of income (product of GDP), distance between countries, and the average applied tariffs, rates of macroeconomic and a dummy for 2008, 2009 and 2010 were used as explanatory variables to capture the effects of the international crisis. The principal results achieved by this study suggest that Brazilian exports to selected trading partners are affected by income levels, by the distance and by the role performed by the trade tariffs. As expected, the increase in the level of income, shorter distances and reduction in the tariff barriers contribute to increase the trade between Brazil and those countries. Regarding the analysis of the impacts by the macroeconomical variables on Brazilian exports, the indexes indices inserted into the gravitational equations presented a behavior close to what was expected, showing that the increased robustness in macroeconomic of the countries result in an increase in the Brazilian exports. The macroeconomic robustness index for Brazil was significant only for the basic products. The index built for Brazil s partner countries was significant only for semi- manufactured and manufactured products. Thus, it can be inferred that Brazilian macroeconomic robustness index is more important to explain the behavior of Brazilian exports, that is, the domestic economic stability favors the Brazilian exports of such products. Concerning to manufactured and semi-manufactured products, the macroeconomic robustness of importing countries is more important to explain the behavior of Brazilian exports of those products. The coefficients presented the expected signal for dummy of the crisis, being negative for the three categories of the analyzed products. However, it was significant for semi-manufactured and manufactured products. The highest impact of the crisis on industrialized products (manufactured and semi-manufactured products) reinforces the argument that countries with shaken financial and economic structure will address the consumption for what is necessary, with the objective to produce internally what it could be bought. The international crisis has restricted Brazilian exports, suffering impacts due to the fall in the income level of the countries and the fluctuation of the macroeconomical variables as well.