Development of a feasibility model for a High Speed Rail (HSR) line project

• Autor(a) principal: Garcia, Reinaldo Crispiniano
• Data de Publicação: 2016
• Outros Autores: Goulart, Aline, Veiga, Thais da C., Cunha, Luiza V. da, Vilarindo, Marcos
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UnB
• Texto Completo: http://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/30472; http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/2238-1031.jtl.v10n2a4
• topic: Fatores de risco; Projetos de engenharia

The building costs of a High Speed Rail line project besides its acquisition, operation and maintenance ones, are very high making it an expensive option of transportation. The implementation of a HSR project must then be evaluated, determining its costs and revenues, in order to justify its viability. This research proposes a model to evaluate the feasibility of a HSR line. The model considers the cases where the demand and the costs have uncertainties, assuming also that the initial evaluated demand can be overestimated. A detailed explanation of the proposed model is given and empirical results for the Brazilian HSR project are discussed. The results show that such a project is a very risky one, and it must be carefully discussed before it becomes a reality.