Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Affonso, Vinicius
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Faria, Glaucia Amorim, Lopes, Beatriz Garcia, Tsutsumoto, Nayra Yumi, Fonseca, Arieli Daieny da, Felizardo, Lucas Menezes
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Research, Society and Development
Texto Completo: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396
Resumo: Predicting the behavior of extreme phenomena becomes extremely important for the entire population, due to the consequences caused by global warming, which makes the study of Extreme Value Theory (TVE) increasingly essential in studies of environmental variables. Applied for the purpose of describing the behavior of rare events, it has been applied in meteorology to maximum rainfall, minimum temperatures, maximum winds, since such information is of great importance for urban, industrial, agronomic planning and mitigation public policies of impulse and development of cities and society. Considering the importance of knowing the possible maximum monthly rainfall, this study aims to estimate the probability of maximum expected monthly rainfall for different periods using a historical series of rainfall data from Ilha Solteira region, as well as to verify the level of rainfall. of data adjustment to the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) model using the maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters and verification of the adjustment in all considered rainfall periods, respectively. Gumbel distribution was the most appropriate for this case study, except in the dry season of the region.
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spelling Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme valuesAnálisis de datos de precipitación máxima en el noroeste de São Paulo utilizando la teoría de valores extremosAnálise dos dados de precipitação máxima no noroeste paulista pela teoria dos valores extremosModelos de previsãoPrecipitaçãoIlha SolteiraPrecipitationIlha SolteiraModelos de pronósticoPrecipitaciónIlha SolteiraPredicting the behavior of extreme phenomena becomes extremely important for the entire population, due to the consequences caused by global warming, which makes the study of Extreme Value Theory (TVE) increasingly essential in studies of environmental variables. Applied for the purpose of describing the behavior of rare events, it has been applied in meteorology to maximum rainfall, minimum temperatures, maximum winds, since such information is of great importance for urban, industrial, agronomic planning and mitigation public policies of impulse and development of cities and society. Considering the importance of knowing the possible maximum monthly rainfall, this study aims to estimate the probability of maximum expected monthly rainfall for different periods using a historical series of rainfall data from Ilha Solteira region, as well as to verify the level of rainfall. of data adjustment to the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) model using the maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters and verification of the adjustment in all considered rainfall periods, respectively. Gumbel distribution was the most appropriate for this case study, except in the dry season of the region.La predicción del comportamiento de los fenómenos extremos adquiere una gran importancia para toda la población, debido a las consecuencias que provoca el calentamiento global, lo que hace que el estudio de la Teoría de los Valores Extremos (TVE) sea cada vez más imprescindible en los estudios de variables ambientales. Aplicado con el propósito de describir el comportamiento de eventos raros, se ha aplicado en meteorología a máxima precipitación, temperaturas mínimas, vientos máximos, dado que información de este tipo es de gran importancia para la planificación urbana, industrial, agronómica y las políticas públicas que mitigan impacto y desarrollo de las ciudades y la sociedad. Dada la importancia del conocimiento de la posible precipitación máxima mensual, este trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar la probabilidad de precipitación máxima mensual esperada para diferentes períodos utilizando una serie histórica de datos de precipitación de la región de Ilha Solteira, así como verificar el nivel de ajuste de datos al modelo de Valores Extremos Generalizados (GEV) utilizando el método de máxima verosimilitud para estimar los parámetros del modelo y verificar el ajuste en todos los períodos de lluvia considerados, respectivamente. La distribución de Gumbel fue la más adecuada para este estudio de caso, excepto en la estación seca en la región.A previsão do comportamento de fenômenos extremos torna-se de suma importância para toda população, devido às consequências causadas pelo aquecimento global, o que torna o estudo da Teoria de Valores Extremos (TVE) cada dia mais imprescindível em estudos de variáveis ambientais. Aplicada com a finalidade de descrever o comportamento de eventos raros, tem sido aplicada em meteorologia nas precipitações máximas, temperaturas mínimas, ventos máximos, haja vista que informações do tipo são de grande importância para o planejamento urbano, industrial, agronômico e políticas públicas mitigadoras de impacto e de desenvolvimento das cidades e da sociedade. Tendo em vista a importância do conhecimento das possíveis precipitações mensais máximas, este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar a probabilidade de precipitação pluvial mensal máxima esperada para diferentes períodos utilizando-se uma série histórica de dados pluviométricos da região de Ilha Solteira, bem como verificar o nível de ajuste dos dados ao modelo Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) utilizando o método de máxima verossimilhança para estimação dos parâmetros do modelo e verificação do ajuste em todos os períodos de chuva considerados, respectivamente. A distribuição de Gumbel foi a mais adequada para esse estudo de caso, exceto no período de estiagem da região.Research, Society and Development2020-10-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/939610.33448/rsd-v9i10.9396Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 10; e9709109396Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 10; e9709109396Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 10; e97091093962525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396/8423Copyright (c) 2020 Vinicius Affonso; Glaucia Amorim Faria; Beatriz Garcia Lopes; Nayra Yumi Tsutsumoto; Arieli Daieny da Fonseca; Lucas Menezes Felizardohttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAffonso, ViniciusFaria, Glaucia Amorim Lopes, Beatriz Garcia Tsutsumoto, Nayra YumiFonseca, Arieli Daieny da Felizardo, Lucas Menezes 2020-10-31T12:03:23Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/9396Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:31:41.343901Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
Análisis de datos de precipitación máxima en el noroeste de São Paulo utilizando la teoría de valores extremos
Análise dos dados de precipitação máxima no noroeste paulista pela teoria dos valores extremos
title Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
spellingShingle Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
Affonso, Vinicius
Modelos de previsão
Precipitação
Ilha Solteira
Precipitation
Ilha Solteira
Modelos de pronóstico
Precipitación
Ilha Solteira
title_short Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
title_full Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
title_fullStr Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
title_sort Analysis of the maximum precipitation data in northwestern São Paulo by theory of extreme values
author Affonso, Vinicius
author_facet Affonso, Vinicius
Faria, Glaucia Amorim
Lopes, Beatriz Garcia
Tsutsumoto, Nayra Yumi
Fonseca, Arieli Daieny da
Felizardo, Lucas Menezes
author_role author
author2 Faria, Glaucia Amorim
Lopes, Beatriz Garcia
Tsutsumoto, Nayra Yumi
Fonseca, Arieli Daieny da
Felizardo, Lucas Menezes
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Affonso, Vinicius
Faria, Glaucia Amorim
Lopes, Beatriz Garcia
Tsutsumoto, Nayra Yumi
Fonseca, Arieli Daieny da
Felizardo, Lucas Menezes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Modelos de previsão
Precipitação
Ilha Solteira
Precipitation
Ilha Solteira
Modelos de pronóstico
Precipitación
Ilha Solteira
topic Modelos de previsão
Precipitação
Ilha Solteira
Precipitation
Ilha Solteira
Modelos de pronóstico
Precipitación
Ilha Solteira
description Predicting the behavior of extreme phenomena becomes extremely important for the entire population, due to the consequences caused by global warming, which makes the study of Extreme Value Theory (TVE) increasingly essential in studies of environmental variables. Applied for the purpose of describing the behavior of rare events, it has been applied in meteorology to maximum rainfall, minimum temperatures, maximum winds, since such information is of great importance for urban, industrial, agronomic planning and mitigation public policies of impulse and development of cities and society. Considering the importance of knowing the possible maximum monthly rainfall, this study aims to estimate the probability of maximum expected monthly rainfall for different periods using a historical series of rainfall data from Ilha Solteira region, as well as to verify the level of rainfall. of data adjustment to the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) model using the maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters and verification of the adjustment in all considered rainfall periods, respectively. Gumbel distribution was the most appropriate for this case study, except in the dry season of the region.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-10-29
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396
10.33448/rsd-v9i10.9396
url https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396
identifier_str_mv 10.33448/rsd-v9i10.9396
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9396/8423
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 10; e9709109396
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 10; e9709109396
Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 10; e9709109396
2525-3409
reponame:Research, Society and Development
instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron:UNIFEI
instname_str Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron_str UNIFEI
institution UNIFEI
reponame_str Research, Society and Development
collection Research, Society and Development
repository.name.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv rsd.articles@gmail.com
_version_ 1797052741987598336

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