Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Research, Society and Development |
Texto Completo: | https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36833 |
Resumo: | Accidents on federal highways in Brazil lead to social and economic impacts on the country. Data from the Federal Highway Police reveal that thousands of people lose their lives in these accidents year after year. This paper aims to examine the factors that influence the probability of death based on the occurrence of the accident. The estimation of a binary logistic regression model took place, in which the event of interest is the circumstance of death in an accident with data from 2021. Following variable selection procedures, it was possible to obtain the final model, which was later validated with data from 2022. The accuracy of the model for both 2021 and 2022 data was around 70%. Then, the odds ratio was calculated between some distinct categories, and how much of an increase in accident lethality it generates compared to the reference category. For example, in a crash, a pedestrian is 15.6 times more likely to die when compared to the driver, while a cyclist is 5.3 times more likely to die. Although most accidents have a human cause, some results show the need of public policies that can help reduce these tragedies. To explain the model, a dashboard was created in a way that the user is able to obtain the probability of death by selecting specific accident characteristics and those involved. |
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Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in BrazilModelo de Regresión logística binaria aplicado a datos de accidentes en carreteras federales en BrasilModelo de Regressão logística binária aplicada a dados de acidentes em rodovias federais no Brasil Supervised analysisMachine learningOdds ratioLethality of accidentsHighway accidents.Análisis supervisadoAprendizaje automáticoRazón de probabilidadesLetalidad de los accidentesAccidentes de carretera.Análise supervisionadaAprendizado de máquinaRazão de chancesLetalidade dos acidentesAcidentes rodoviários.Accidents on federal highways in Brazil lead to social and economic impacts on the country. Data from the Federal Highway Police reveal that thousands of people lose their lives in these accidents year after year. This paper aims to examine the factors that influence the probability of death based on the occurrence of the accident. The estimation of a binary logistic regression model took place, in which the event of interest is the circumstance of death in an accident with data from 2021. Following variable selection procedures, it was possible to obtain the final model, which was later validated with data from 2022. The accuracy of the model for both 2021 and 2022 data was around 70%. Then, the odds ratio was calculated between some distinct categories, and how much of an increase in accident lethality it generates compared to the reference category. For example, in a crash, a pedestrian is 15.6 times more likely to die when compared to the driver, while a cyclist is 5.3 times more likely to die. Although most accidents have a human cause, some results show the need of public policies that can help reduce these tragedies. To explain the model, a dashboard was created in a way that the user is able to obtain the probability of death by selecting specific accident characteristics and those involved.Los accidentes en las carreteras federales de Brasil generan impactos sociales y económicos para el país. Datos de la Policía Federal de Caminos revelan que, año tras año, miles de personas pierden la vida en estos accidentes. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo explorar los factores que influyen en la probabilidad de muerte por la ocurrencia del accidente. Se estimó un modelo de regresión logística binaria, en el que el evento de interés es la circunstancia de muerte en accidente con datos de 2021. Dados algunos procedimientos de selección de variables, se obtuvo el modelo final y luego se validó con datos de 2022. La eficiencia global del modelo, tanto en datos de 2021 como de 2022, rondaba el 70%. Luego, se calculó la razón de posibilidades entre algunas categorías diferentes y cuánto genera un aumento en la letalidad de accidentes en relación con la categoría de referencia, como el peatón, que tiene 15,6 veces más posibilidades de letalidad que el conductor en un accidente, así como como el uso de una bicicleta, que es 5,3 veces más probable que un coche. Aunque la mayoría de los accidentes son causados por el hombre, algunos resultados muestran que existe la necesidad de una intervención de políticas públicas que ayuden a reducir estas tragedias. Para hacer más concreta y dinámica la comprensión del modelo, se creó un tablero para que el usuario obtenga la probabilidad de muerte seleccionando ciertas características del accidente y los involucrados.Os acidentes ocorridos em rodovias federais no Brasil geram impactos sociais e econômicos para o país. Dados da Polícia Rodoviária Federal revelam que, ano após ano, milhares de pessoas perdem suas vidas nesses acidentes. Este trabalho objetiva explorar os fatores que influenciam a probabilidade de óbito a partir da ocorrência do acidente. Foi estimado um modelo de regressão logística binária, em que o evento de interesse é a circunstância de óbito em um acidente com dados de 2021. Atendendo alguns procedimentos de seleção de variáveis, foi obtido a modelo final e, em seguida, feita uma validação com dados de 2022. A eficiência global do modelo, tanto nos dados de 2021 quanto em 2022, ficou em torno de 70%. Em seguida, foi calculada a razão de chances entre algumas categorias distintas e o quanto gera de aumento na letalidade do acidente em relação à categoria de referência – como o pedestre, que tem 15,6 vezes mais chance de letalidade do que o condutor em um acidente, assim como o uso de bicicleta, que tem 5,3 vezes mais chances do que o automóvel. Apesar de a maioria dos acidentes ter causa humana, alguns resultados demonstram que existe a necessidade de intervenção por parte de políticas públicas que podem ajudar na redução dessas tragédias. Para tornar mais concreto e dinâmico o entendimento do modelo, foi elaborado um dashboard para que o usuário obtenha a probabilidade de óbito por meio da seleção de determinadas características do acidente e dos envolvidos.Research, Society and Development2022-11-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3683310.33448/rsd-v11i15.36833Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 No. 15; e120111536833Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 Núm. 15; e120111536833Research, Society and Development; v. 11 n. 15; e1201115368332525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIenghttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36833/30840Copyright (c) 2022 Damião Flávio dos Santos; Yuri Machado de Souzahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSantos, Damião Flávio dos Souza, Yuri Machado de 2022-11-27T19:56:23Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/36833Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:51:14.986066Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil Modelo de Regresión logística binaria aplicado a datos de accidentes en carreteras federales en Brasil Modelo de Regressão logística binária aplicada a dados de acidentes em rodovias federais no Brasil |
title |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil Santos, Damião Flávio dos Supervised analysis Machine learning Odds ratio Lethality of accidents Highway accidents. Análisis supervisado Aprendizaje automático Razón de probabilidades Letalidad de los accidentes Accidentes de carretera. Análise supervisionada Aprendizado de máquina Razão de chances Letalidade dos acidentes Acidentes rodoviários. |
title_short |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil |
title_full |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil |
title_sort |
Binary logistic regression model applied to data on accidents occurred on federal highways in Brazil |
author |
Santos, Damião Flávio dos |
author_facet |
Santos, Damião Flávio dos Souza, Yuri Machado de |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Souza, Yuri Machado de |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Damião Flávio dos Souza, Yuri Machado de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Supervised analysis Machine learning Odds ratio Lethality of accidents Highway accidents. Análisis supervisado Aprendizaje automático Razón de probabilidades Letalidad de los accidentes Accidentes de carretera. Análise supervisionada Aprendizado de máquina Razão de chances Letalidade dos acidentes Acidentes rodoviários. |
topic |
Supervised analysis Machine learning Odds ratio Lethality of accidents Highway accidents. Análisis supervisado Aprendizaje automático Razón de probabilidades Letalidad de los accidentes Accidentes de carretera. Análise supervisionada Aprendizado de máquina Razão de chances Letalidade dos acidentes Acidentes rodoviários. |
description |
Accidents on federal highways in Brazil lead to social and economic impacts on the country. Data from the Federal Highway Police reveal that thousands of people lose their lives in these accidents year after year. This paper aims to examine the factors that influence the probability of death based on the occurrence of the accident. The estimation of a binary logistic regression model took place, in which the event of interest is the circumstance of death in an accident with data from 2021. Following variable selection procedures, it was possible to obtain the final model, which was later validated with data from 2022. The accuracy of the model for both 2021 and 2022 data was around 70%. Then, the odds ratio was calculated between some distinct categories, and how much of an increase in accident lethality it generates compared to the reference category. For example, in a crash, a pedestrian is 15.6 times more likely to die when compared to the driver, while a cyclist is 5.3 times more likely to die. Although most accidents have a human cause, some results show the need of public policies that can help reduce these tragedies. To explain the model, a dashboard was created in a way that the user is able to obtain the probability of death by selecting specific accident characteristics and those involved. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-12 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36833 10.33448/rsd-v11i15.36833 |
url |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36833 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.33448/rsd-v11i15.36833 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/36833/30840 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Damião Flávio dos Santos; Yuri Machado de Souza https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Damião Flávio dos Santos; Yuri Machado de Souza https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 No. 15; e120111536833 Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 Núm. 15; e120111536833 Research, Society and Development; v. 11 n. 15; e120111536833 2525-3409 reponame:Research, Society and Development instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) instacron:UNIFEI |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
instacron_str |
UNIFEI |
institution |
UNIFEI |
reponame_str |
Research, Society and Development |
collection |
Research, Society and Development |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
rsd.articles@gmail.com |
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1797052837902942208 |