Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE |
Texto Completo: | http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4635 |
Resumo: | The electric load forecast is a problem of relevant complexity that integrates the planning and operation process of an electric power system, being influenced by several factors, such as economy, geography position, day, time, seasons and weather conditions. In order to execute the program of an electric power system with efficiency it is very important to be able to anticipate the demand to be supplied. Considering the operation of a hydroelectric power plant, the main objective of the load forecast is to provide input to develop the generation schedule program with economy and safety, taking into account the current operational restrictions, associated with energy availability, active power reserve and control of the upstream and downstream levels. Thus, significant deviations in the generation program of the Itaipu hydroelectric power dam may cause difficulties for the real-time operation teams, impacting the quality requirements for the Brazilian and Paraguayan Electric Power Systems. This paper presents a very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) methodology applied to solve the problem when significant deviations are observed in the power exchange program between Itaipu e ANDE. The method is based on the Box & Jenkins time series concept in obtaining SARIMA models, taking in advantage of the seasonal characteristics of the time series formed by the hourly observations of the power exchange between Itaipu e ANDE. The proposed methodology is applied in Itaipu´s daily hydroenergetic schedule, presenting satisfactory results with average errors of around 5%, improving the method currently used. |
id |
UNIOESTE-1_83bc66245441494f8cfc92a946293f44 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:tede.unioeste.br:tede/4635 |
network_acronym_str |
UNIOESTE-1 |
network_name_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Franco, Edgar Manuel Carreñohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4430719667450640Lotero, Roberto Cayetanohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2866486851342810Lazzarotto, Emersonhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6092096824405681Rodrigues, Samuel Bellidohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2278340009948310http://lattes.cnpq.br/2805973972812128Pimenta, Rodrigo Gonçalves2020-01-27T19:31:46Z2019-08-29PIMENTA, Rodrigo Gonçalves. Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE. 2019. 97 p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Elétrica e Computação) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Foz do Iguaçu, 2019.http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4635The electric load forecast is a problem of relevant complexity that integrates the planning and operation process of an electric power system, being influenced by several factors, such as economy, geography position, day, time, seasons and weather conditions. In order to execute the program of an electric power system with efficiency it is very important to be able to anticipate the demand to be supplied. Considering the operation of a hydroelectric power plant, the main objective of the load forecast is to provide input to develop the generation schedule program with economy and safety, taking into account the current operational restrictions, associated with energy availability, active power reserve and control of the upstream and downstream levels. Thus, significant deviations in the generation program of the Itaipu hydroelectric power dam may cause difficulties for the real-time operation teams, impacting the quality requirements for the Brazilian and Paraguayan Electric Power Systems. This paper presents a very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) methodology applied to solve the problem when significant deviations are observed in the power exchange program between Itaipu e ANDE. The method is based on the Box & Jenkins time series concept in obtaining SARIMA models, taking in advantage of the seasonal characteristics of the time series formed by the hourly observations of the power exchange between Itaipu e ANDE. The proposed methodology is applied in Itaipu´s daily hydroenergetic schedule, presenting satisfactory results with average errors of around 5%, improving the method currently used.A previsão de demanda de energia elétrica é um problema de alta complexidade que faz parte do processo de planejamento da operação de um sistema elétrico, sendo influenciada por diversos fatores, tais como econômicos, localização geográfica, dia, hora, estações do ano e o clima. A fim de planejar o despacho econômico de unidades geradoras de um sistema elétrico, é de fundamental importância antecipar a demanda a ser fornecida. Em uma usina hidrelétrica a previsão de carga permite que o programa de geração seja elaborado de forma econômica e segura, considerando as restrições operativas vigentes, associadas à disponibilidade energética, à reserva de potência operativa e ao controle dos níveis montante e jusante. Assim sendo, erros na previsão de carga implicam em desvios significativos no programa de geração da Central Hidrelétrica de Itaipu, o qual se traduz em dificuldades para as equipes de tempo real, impactando negativamente nos requisitos de qualidade de atendimento aos Sistemas Elétricos do Brasil e do Paraguai. Este trabalho aplica um método de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo que visa reduzir os desvios significativos observados durante a execução do programa de intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE. O método é baseado no conceito de séries temporais de Box & Jenkins na obtenção de modelos SARIMA, aproveitando-se da característica sazonal das séries temporais formadas pelas observações horárias do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE. O método proposto é testado para aplicação na execução da programação diária hidroenergética de Itaipu, apresentando resultados satisfatórios com erros médios na ordem de 5%, melhorando o método atualmente utilizado.Submitted by Wagner Junior (wagner.junior@unioeste.br) on 2020-01-27T19:31:46Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Rodrigo_Goncalves_Pimenta_2019.pdf: 9194533 bytes, checksum: 2eacb7a8dc9fa81aa66fe508e8fb9990 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2020-01-27T19:31:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Rodrigo_Goncalves_Pimenta_2019.pdf: 9194533 bytes, checksum: 2eacb7a8dc9fa81aa66fe508e8fb9990 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019-08-29application/pdfpor8774263440366006536500Universidade Estadual do Oeste do ParanáFoz do IguaçuPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica e ComputaçãoUNIOESTEBrasilCentro de Engenharias e Ciências Exatashttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessOperação de hidrelétricaPrevisão de carga no curtíssimo prazoSéries temporais e SARIMAHydroelectric power plant operationVery short-term load forecastingTime series and SARIMAENGENHARIASModelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDEVery short load forecasting model applied in forecasting exchange between Itaipu and ANDEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis-1040084669565072649600600600-77344021240821469224518971056484826825reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTEinstname:Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)instacron:UNIOESTEORIGINALRodrigo_Goncalves_Pimenta_2019.pdfRodrigo_Goncalves_Pimenta_2019.pdfapplication/pdf9194533http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/5/Rodrigo_Goncalves_Pimenta_2019.pdf2eacb7a8dc9fa81aa66fe508e8fb9990MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-849http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/2/license_url4afdbb8c545fd630ea7db775da747b2fMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; charset=utf-80http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/3/license_textd41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427eMD53license_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-80http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/4/license_rdfd41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427eMD54LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82165http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/1/license.txtbd3efa91386c1718a7f26a329fdcb468MD51tede/46352020-01-27 17:31:47.036oai:tede.unioeste.br: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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://tede.unioeste.br/PUBhttp://tede.unioeste.br/oai/requestbiblioteca.repositorio@unioeste.bropendoar:2020-01-27T19:31:47Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Very short load forecasting model applied in forecasting exchange between Itaipu and ANDE |
title |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE |
spellingShingle |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE Pimenta, Rodrigo Gonçalves Operação de hidrelétrica Previsão de carga no curtíssimo prazo Séries temporais e SARIMA Hydroelectric power plant operation Very short-term load forecasting Time series and SARIMA ENGENHARIAS |
title_short |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE |
title_full |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE |
title_fullStr |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE |
title_sort |
Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE |
author |
Pimenta, Rodrigo Gonçalves |
author_facet |
Pimenta, Rodrigo Gonçalves |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Franco, Edgar Manuel Carreño |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4430719667450640 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Lotero, Roberto Cayetano |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2866486851342810 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Lazzarotto, Emerson |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6092096824405681 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Rodrigues, Samuel Bellido |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2278340009948310 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2805973972812128 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pimenta, Rodrigo Gonçalves |
contributor_str_mv |
Franco, Edgar Manuel Carreño Lotero, Roberto Cayetano Lazzarotto, Emerson Rodrigues, Samuel Bellido |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Operação de hidrelétrica Previsão de carga no curtíssimo prazo Séries temporais e SARIMA |
topic |
Operação de hidrelétrica Previsão de carga no curtíssimo prazo Séries temporais e SARIMA Hydroelectric power plant operation Very short-term load forecasting Time series and SARIMA ENGENHARIAS |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Hydroelectric power plant operation Very short-term load forecasting Time series and SARIMA |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
ENGENHARIAS |
description |
The electric load forecast is a problem of relevant complexity that integrates the planning and operation process of an electric power system, being influenced by several factors, such as economy, geography position, day, time, seasons and weather conditions. In order to execute the program of an electric power system with efficiency it is very important to be able to anticipate the demand to be supplied. Considering the operation of a hydroelectric power plant, the main objective of the load forecast is to provide input to develop the generation schedule program with economy and safety, taking into account the current operational restrictions, associated with energy availability, active power reserve and control of the upstream and downstream levels. Thus, significant deviations in the generation program of the Itaipu hydroelectric power dam may cause difficulties for the real-time operation teams, impacting the quality requirements for the Brazilian and Paraguayan Electric Power Systems. This paper presents a very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) methodology applied to solve the problem when significant deviations are observed in the power exchange program between Itaipu e ANDE. The method is based on the Box & Jenkins time series concept in obtaining SARIMA models, taking in advantage of the seasonal characteristics of the time series formed by the hourly observations of the power exchange between Itaipu e ANDE. The proposed methodology is applied in Itaipu´s daily hydroenergetic schedule, presenting satisfactory results with average errors of around 5%, improving the method currently used. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-08-29 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2020-01-27T19:31:46Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
PIMENTA, Rodrigo Gonçalves. Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE. 2019. 97 p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Elétrica e Computação) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Foz do Iguaçu, 2019. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4635 |
identifier_str_mv |
PIMENTA, Rodrigo Gonçalves. Modelo de previsão de carga de curtíssimo prazo aplicado na previsão do intercâmbio entre Itaipu e ANDE. 2019. 97 p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Elétrica e Computação) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Foz do Iguaçu, 2019. |
url |
http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4635 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.program.fl_str_mv |
-1040084669565072649 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
600 600 600 |
dc.relation.department.fl_str_mv |
-7734402124082146922 |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
4518971056484826825 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná Foz do Iguaçu |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica e Computação |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UNIOESTE |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Engenharias e Ciências Exatas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná Foz do Iguaçu |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE instname:Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE) instacron:UNIOESTE |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE) |
instacron_str |
UNIOESTE |
institution |
UNIOESTE |
reponame_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/5/Rodrigo_Goncalves_Pimenta_2019.pdf http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/2/license_url http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/3/license_text http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/4/license_rdf http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4635/1/license.txt |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
2eacb7a8dc9fa81aa66fe508e8fb9990 4afdbb8c545fd630ea7db775da747b2f d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e bd3efa91386c1718a7f26a329fdcb468 |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
biblioteca.repositorio@unioeste.br |
_version_ |
1801124564913094656 |