THE MODELLING AS MANAGEMENT TOOL IN MILK PRODUCTION

• Autor(a) principal: Kirchner, Rosane Maria
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Outros Autores: Silinske, Jaqueline, Saidelles, Ana Paula Fleig, Stumm, Eniva Miladi Fernandes, Scherer, Monica Elisa, Chaves, Magda Antunes de
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Latin American Journal of Business Management
• Texto Completo: https://www.lajbm.com.br/index.php/journal/article/view/255
• topic: Modeling; Statistics; Dairy cows; Modelagem; Estatí­stica; Vacas leiteiras

This research aimed the behavior and to model historical data about the amount of milk produced and the number of dairy cows milked in the region of the Regional Development Council Rio da Várzea/Rio Grande do Sul. The annual historic data was collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Site, considering the period from 1974 to 2010. To perform the analysis it was used the Box Jenkins methodology. At First, it was made the correlation of the two variables along the time where a significant relation was verified. In the milk production modeling, the selected model, considered the thriftiest, was a SARIMA(0,1,1)*(0,1,0), with the occurrence of the model ARIMA(1,1,0) in the modeling for the number of dairy cows milked. The forecasting for the next three years was next to be promoted. The results of this research can contribute in the planning of viable strategies for the milk sector and, as a tool in decision making.