Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111011 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/201301 |
Resumo: | Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease. |
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Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in BrazilApproximate Bayesian inferenceEmerging diseasesIntegrated nested Laplace approximationsLand use changeLatent Gaussian modelsPolygon-based analysisPublic healthZero inflationBackground: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease.Department of Ecology Institute of Biosciences São Paulo State University (UNESP)Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory Hopkirk Research Institute Massey University, Private Bag 11-222Center for Virology Research Ribeirão Preto Medical School University of São Paulo, Av. Bandeirantes 3900Vitalant Research Institute, 270 Masonic AvenueDepartment of Laboratory Medicine University of California, 270 Masonic AvenueDepartment of Ecology Biosciences Institute University of São PauloCentro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conservacao de Mamiferos Carnivoros (CENAP) Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação (ICMBio) Estrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi, 8600-Bairro da UsinaInstituto Pró-Carnívoros, Av. Horácio Neto 1030Department of Botany and Ecology Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT)Departamento de Saúde Coletiva Faculdade de Medicina Universidade Federal de Uberlândia Campus Umuarama, Avenida Pará, 1720Departamento de Ciências Biológicas Universidade Estadual de Santa CruzDepartment of Ecology Institute of Biosciences São Paulo State University (UNESP)Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Massey UniversityUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)Vitalant Research InstituteUniversity of CaliforniaEstrada Municipal Hisaichi TakebayashiInstituto Pró-CarnívorosFederal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT)Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)Universidade Estadual de Santa CruzMuylaert, Renata L. [UNESP]Sabino-Santos, GilbertoPrist, Paula R.Oshima, Júlia E.F. [UNESP]Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandão [UNESP]Sobral-Souza, ThadeuDe Oliveira, Stefan VilgesBovendorp, Ricardo SiqueiraMarshall, Jonathan C.Hayman, David T.S.Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP]2020-12-12T02:29:07Z2020-12-12T02:29:07Z2019-10-31info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111011Viruses, v. 11, n. 11, 2019.1999-4915http://hdl.handle.net/11449/20130110.3390/v111110112-s2.0-850745508484158685235743119Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengVirusesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-10-23T10:54:35Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/201301Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T17:01:37.807635Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil |
title |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] Approximate Bayesian inference Emerging diseases Integrated nested Laplace approximations Land use change Latent Gaussian models Polygon-based analysis Public health Zero inflation |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil |
title_sort |
Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome transmission risk in Brazil |
author |
Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] |
author_facet |
Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] Sabino-Santos, Gilberto Prist, Paula R. Oshima, Júlia E.F. [UNESP] Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandão [UNESP] Sobral-Souza, Thadeu De Oliveira, Stefan Vilges Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira Marshall, Jonathan C. Hayman, David T.S. Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sabino-Santos, Gilberto Prist, Paula R. Oshima, Júlia E.F. [UNESP] Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandão [UNESP] Sobral-Souza, Thadeu De Oliveira, Stefan Vilges Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira Marshall, Jonathan C. Hayman, David T.S. Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP] |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) Massey University Universidade de São Paulo (USP) Vitalant Research Institute University of California Estrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi Instituto Pró-Carnívoros Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT) Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] Sabino-Santos, Gilberto Prist, Paula R. Oshima, Júlia E.F. [UNESP] Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandão [UNESP] Sobral-Souza, Thadeu De Oliveira, Stefan Vilges Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira Marshall, Jonathan C. Hayman, David T.S. Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP] |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Approximate Bayesian inference Emerging diseases Integrated nested Laplace approximations Land use change Latent Gaussian models Polygon-based analysis Public health Zero inflation |
topic |
Approximate Bayesian inference Emerging diseases Integrated nested Laplace approximations Land use change Latent Gaussian models Polygon-based analysis Public health Zero inflation |
description |
Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-10-31 2020-12-12T02:29:07Z 2020-12-12T02:29:07Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111011 Viruses, v. 11, n. 11, 2019. 1999-4915 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/201301 10.3390/v11111011 2-s2.0-85074550848 4158685235743119 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111011 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/201301 |
identifier_str_mv |
Viruses, v. 11, n. 11, 2019. 1999-4915 10.3390/v11111011 2-s2.0-85074550848 4158685235743119 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Viruses |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1808128740937433088 |